An Open Seat in Vermont... Could be a tough race.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm no worried at all about Douglas:

1-Governors of hte wrong party, while they may be popular and can win their gubernatorial races easily, don't always end up as great Senate candidates. See William Weld and Tony Knowles.
2-Douglas may be popular, but the main reason he won so easily last time is he had a very weak opponent and the Democrats didn't bother to try to beat him. Hardly proof he can win a tough competitive race.
3-Vermont has two year terms for governor. Why would Douglas abandon the governorship for a long shot Senate race?
4-Sanders got almost 10 points better than Douglas did last time. It's no contest as to who is more popular.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmm...I hope Douglas runs and can at least force the DSCC to put some money in the state. Still Sanders' seat to lose, methinks.

Keep in mind how large Vermont is. It would hardly be a drain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sanders is a defacto Democrat. The national Democrats will simply treat him as no different from Casey or the candidate here.  While there might be a Democratic primary if anyone does run, like in the past that candidate will be a total joke who will get no support from the national party and will be no more of a factor than the Libertarian in most races.

Douglas is becoming even more overrated than Steele. Considering that as pointed out above:

1-Sanders did almost 10 points better than him last time, and there's no question as to who's more popular
2-He is still in a weaker position than both Tony Knowles and William Weld. And those two had nothing to lose by running. He does.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Um no. Weld was running against an incumbent; this is an open seat in a less machine-oriented state.

Sanders is leftist but he quite simply is not a Democrat. Whether that winds up mattering is unclear, but certainly whatever organizational benefits come with being part of the DNC will not be there for him.

There actually is question who is more popular heads-up. Clavelle wasn't THAT bad and he was running a serious campaign; Sanders did not face real opposition. Also note that a Democrat in his House race fetched 7%, so I would expect anywhere from 5-8% to be ciphered in the Senate race.

If I had to bet even odds, I would take Douglas. If anyone is overrated here it's Sanders.

Sanders is basically the incumbent as he already holds a statewide Congressional position. And yes Douglas does too, but it's pretty obvious by looking at many races in the past to see that legislative and gubernatorial races are completely different.

If Sanders was so overrated and vulnerable, you would've expected the Republicans to try to beat him in the House, or at least put up a serious campaign against him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Saying that this will definately be a close race is assuming that Douglas will run, which I doubt he will. He can either take a Senate race he has at best slightly under 50/50 chances in, or a safe governor's seat. Which to take?

If Sanders runs, I don't see how it would be any different than any of his House races which he wins no problem. It will cost the same amount of money and all the other factors also apply. And pretending that this seat is just as "open" as Maryland and that Sanders isn't to at least a slight degree a de facto incumbent is pretty naive. There is really no difference between Sanders House seat and this Senate seat.