Rasmussen: Romney ahead by double-digits nationally

[Tender Branson]

24% Romney
13% Bush
12% Carson
11% Walker
  7% Paul
  7% Christie
  5% Rubio
  5% Perry
  4% Others
12% Undecided

The survey of 787 Likely Republican Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/romney_leads_the_gop_pack_for_now

[Mehmentum]

They included Perry and Rubio but not Cruz or Huckabee?

[IceSpear]

They included Perry and Rubio but not Cruz or Huckabee?

Ras has a knack for omitting random people in their polls.

[Maxwell]

Disappointed to see the only good candidate so low and Bush and Romney in first. What a disaster of a party.

[Mr. Morden]

They also polled the Democratic side, but looks like they may have just tested Clinton vs. Warren:

link

Clinton 62%
Warren 22%

[BlueSwan]

Another good poll for Walker. If Romney and Bush destroy each other, he could end up the consensus candidate.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, out of pure curiosity, I did something kind of silly: I went through all of the national and statewide polls from this month, and calculated the median value for each candidate, throwing together national polls and state polls in IA, NH, SC, PA, and NJ*.  Even though all those states are different, I figured that throwing them in the same pot and taking the median along with the national numbers would give a decent idea of where things are nationally.  I find:

Romney 20%
Bush 13%
Carson 8.5%
Huckabee 8%
Walker 8%
Christie 7%
Paul 7%
Cruz 6.5%
Rubio 3.5%
Perry 2.5%
[Omitting candidates like Jindal and Santorum who aren't included in most of the polls.]

I think the untold story of the polls this month is Walker.  A few months ago, he had the lowest name recognition of anyone in the field (actually, he still might, if you don't count folks like Kasich and Pence, who usually aren't included in these polls), and was regularly getting #s in the 2-4% range.  Now he typically hits high single digits, if not double digits, and usually outperforms folks like Christie, Paul, and Cruz.

* [I used 9 polls total.  Four national polls plus one poll each from the five states I mentioned.  Several of these are from pretty bad pollsters, but I'm counting on the fact that by taking the median, you're not too corrupted by outliers.]

[IceSpear]

OK, out of pure curiosity, I did something kind of silly: I went through all of the national and statewide polls from this month, and calculated the median value for each candidate, throwing together national polls and state polls in IA, NH, SC, PA, and NJ*.  Even though all those states are different, I figured that throwing them in the same pot and taking the median along with the national numbers would give a decent idea of where things are nationally.  I find:

Romney 20%
Bush 13%
Carson 8.5%
Huckabee 8%
Walker 8%
Christie 7%
Paul 7%
Cruz 6.5%
Rubio 3.5%
Perry 2.5%
[Omitting candidates like Jindal and Santorum who aren't included in most of the polls.]

I think the untold story of the polls this month is Walker.  A few months ago, he had the lowest name recognition of anyone in the field (actually, he still might, if you don't count folks like Kasich and Pence, who usually aren't included in these polls), and was regularly getting #s in the 2-4% range.  Now he typically hits high single digits, if not double digits, and usually outperforms folks like Christie, Paul, and Cruz.

* [I used 9 polls total.  Four national polls plus one poll each from the five states I mentioned.  Several of these are from pretty bad pollsters, but I'm counting on the fact that by taking the median, you're not too corrupted by outliers.]

IMO, it's only a matter of time before Walker becomes a top tier contender. There's no reason for anyone in the GOP (except the tiny dying moderate wing) to dislike him. The same can't be said for any other candidate, except maybe Pence. But he's just Walker-lite.