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  2015 Gubernatorial Predictions
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Latest 2015 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
mondale84 (D-NJ)MapProfile 11-03 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Spiral (I-MO)MapProfile 11-03 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
kammy (D-QC)MapProfile 05-23 7 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
tmthforu94 (R-KS)MapProfile 10-24 2 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
IndyRep (R-MT)MapProfile 11-01 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
ExtremeGOP (R-TN)MapProfile 11-03 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Ryne (R-WA)MapProfile 11-03 2 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
gumball machine (L-CA)MapProfile 02-03 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 0
ryer (R-VA)Map 02-14 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 0
sjkqw (I-PA)MapProfile 02-23 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2015 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Spiral (I-MO)MapProfile 11-03 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
thebadger (I-GBR)MapProfile 11-03 5 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
Ebsy (D-MO)MapProfile 11-03 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
wifikitten (D-MO)MapProfile 11-03 8 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
mondale84 (D-NJ)MapProfile 11-03 3 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
edwardsna (R-NY)MapProfile 11-03 11 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 0
Averroes (I-NY)MapProfile 11-03 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 0
Somebody (O-NY)MapProfile 11-03 7 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 0
Ryne (R-WA)MapProfile 11-03 2 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 0
Gendral (I-OR)Map 11-03 4 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2015 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2015-11-01 @ 15:28:46
MapProfile 11-01 2 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 1
Olawakandi (D-CA)
by IndyRep on 2015-11-01 @ 12:14:58
MapProfile 04-29 12 D +1 1 (-1) 2 (+1) 0 (0) 3
MilesC56 (D-VA)
by Olawakandi on 2015-05-03 @ 09:13:57
MapProfile 02-18 1 Even 2 (0) 1 (0) 0 (0) 2
nyancat (R-CA)
by nyancat on 2015-03-28 @ 15:45:23
MapProfile 03-28 1 R +1 3 (+1) 0 (-1) 0 (0) 1
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 69831 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: February 02, 2015, 09:29:30 pm »

The 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.
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Flake
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« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2015, 11:53:06 pm »

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solarstorm
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« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2015, 09:41:58 am »

Why does everybody think that the Democrats will be able to defend Kentucky.
If Grimes hadn't pussed out, I'd definitely say 'yes'.
But Conway? Please... He's way too liberal for that state, he'd even lose against Bevin.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2015, 11:43:47 am »

Grmes didnt know what political party she belonged to and failed to recognize Obama as president. Conway is much better than that and all the polls have shown it a tossup against Cromer and Lean D agsinst Bevin.
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« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2015, 12:28:56 am »

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Same as Flo's, except I have Governor Bryant getting >60% of the vote instead of 50%.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2015, 01:25:02 am »

Republicans take Kentucky and hold the rest
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2015, 06:20:55 pm »
« Edited: March 13, 2015, 06:35:52 pm by OC »

That's. why I want Mitch Landrieu to run, Dems have a better chance of winning at least one of these, than not.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2015, 03:33:01 pm »

Why does the Oregon gubernatorial special election take place next year and not this year?
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Truth Hurts
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2015, 04:35:08 pm »

Why does the Oregon gubernatorial special election take place next year and not this year?

To coincide with the presidential race.
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solarstorm
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« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2015, 02:02:07 pm »

Why does the Oregon gubernatorial special election take place next year and not this year?

To coincide with the presidential race.

I'd guess every state has its own laws about when to hold special elections.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2015, 04:41:09 pm »

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2015/pred.php?action=indpred&id=82

Yes, I have Kentucky as Lean R. I'm sticking by that, as I think Conway will implode like he did with Rand Paul 5 years ago.
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« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2015, 12:54:22 pm »

Bevin is a wacko, Conway should win narrowly.

As a Republican, however, if I lived in Kentucky in 2010, I'd have supported him for U.S. Senate over Rand Paul, and I'd be doing so again over Bevin because Bevin is crazy.

Grimes is hot (just thought I'd put that out there since we are talking about Kentucky)
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Flake
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2015, 09:33:30 am »

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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2015, 10:40:37 pm »

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I agree, Louisiana looks to be a Democratic pickup at this point. Vitter will be crying like a baby on runoff night.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2015, 09:58:18 pm »
« Edited: October 17, 2015, 06:06:15 pm by ElectionsGuy »

1 month to go

34% Edwards
28% Vitter
18% Dardenne
15% Angelle
5% Other

52% Vitter
48% Edwards

49% Bevin
47% Conway

62% Bryant
37% Gray

KY: Toss-Up
LA: Lean R
MS: Safe R
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2015, 11:16:18 am »

My prediction

Conway 51/49

Runoff in La

MS Bryany will win almost 70 percent

MS Safe
LA tossup
KY LD
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2015, 09:13:12 pm »

My prediction

Conway 51/49

Runoff in La

MS Bryany will win almost 70 percent

MS Safe
LA tossup
KY LD

There is only one Dem running in LA and he cant break 40%.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2015, 01:06:08 am »

Edwards is leading in all the polls.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2015, 06:09:21 am »

Dave, should we predict the jungle primary result in LA, or the runoff result ?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2015, 09:25:42 pm »

MS Gov

Bryant: 62%
Gray: 36%
O'Hara: 2%

MS AG

Hood: 53%
Hurst: 47%

Everthing else by Bryant-like margins.

All Kentucky Predictions Here
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2015, 07:00:14 am »
« Edited: November 19, 2015, 07:05:30 am by ElectionsGuy »

Final Predictions

Governor: Lean D
Lt Governor: Safe R
AG: Safe R

Edwards: 53%
Vitter: 47%

Nungesser: 57%
Holden: 43%

Landry: 55%
Caldwell: 45%

Edwards is above 50 in most polls, Vitter below 40 in most too. There would have to be something dramatic to turn it around. I'm predicting a last minute massive boost for Vitter, but that still doesn't get him to 50. So, looks like Edwards is the next governor, and D's make up for their loss in KY.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #21 on: December 18, 2015, 02:47:09 am »
« Edited: December 18, 2015, 02:54:31 am by OC »

That KY gov race blew alot of users scores. I hope 2016 will be better, eventhough alot of users have it like 2012, which it wont be.
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