PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak

[Maxwell]

As much as pbrower may be guilty of only believing in the poll numbers he likes, so is everyone here who is acting like this poll completely negates the PPP one. It's a good poll for Toomey, but let's see if other polls show similar results before concluding that Toomey is in good shape.

Fair enough. But it's between this and PPP, and I'm more likely to trust Quinnipiac at this point.

[Keystone Phil]

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 

But are you now admitting that Toomey might survive? Or are you still sticking to your ridiculous "Toomey has a 0% chance of winning, NO MATTER WHAT!!!" assertion that you made when the 28% poll came out?

[Mr. Illini]

Bad news for a Democratic senate


Braley amd Udall were favored too. Dont underestimate Sestak.

Not saying it is over by any means. Just not good news.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 

But are you now admitting that Toomey might survive? Or are you still sticking to your ridiculous "Toomey has a 0% chance of winning, NO MATTER WHAT!!!" assertion that you made when the 28% poll came out?

0%? Did I ever say 0%? I would not give "0%" for the chance of Mali winning a medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games... yet. 0% involves reversal of time, alteration of history, people dead for a year rising from the dead...    The prediction was not so ridiculous when Toomey had a 28% approval rating.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Quinnipiac rightly overshadowed it but it should still be noted that PPP released a poll yesterday, too, showing Toomey up 6% from his most recent approval rating in a PPP poll.

So pbrower really has to give it up with the "BUT 28%!!!" routine.

I DID!

I said that it could be an outlier. But Senator Toomey could be very close to his ceiling. Pennsylvania is a tough state for right-wing Republicans. 

But are you now admitting that Toomey might survive? Or are you still sticking to your ridiculous "Toomey has a 0% chance of winning, NO MATTER WHAT!!!" assertion that you made when the 28% poll came out?

0%? Did I ever say 0%? I would not give "0%" for the chance of Mali winning a medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games... yet. 0% involves reversal of time, alteration of history, people dead for a year rising from the dead...    The prediction was not so ridiculous when Toomey had a 28% approval rating.

Let's go on a trip down memory lane, shall we?(these are all things you've said. wording is yours, bolding is mine):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be sure, having an approval rating at 28% twenty-two months before the election isn't quite as bad as having a 27% approval rating nine months before the election... but not even Barack Obama can campaign his way out of that level of disapproval.

I call it here: Republicans are going to cut their losses with Senator Toomey very fast. He's a bad fit for Pennsylvania, barely getting elected in the wave election of 2010, the sort who loses in a high-participation Presidential election.  They probably have a better chance of picking up an open Senate seat in California than they have of holding onto this one. 

I'm not calling a Democratic wave yet. [/quote]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I can't find the post right now, but I also remember you saying somewhere that you considered PA-SEN safe D and NC-SEN likely D.

So while you may not have said 0% outright, you certainly were strongly implying it.

[Keystone Phil]

Let's all savor that supremely idiotic comment by pbrower about how the GOP has a better chance at picking up the California seat than we do at keeping PA.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Corey Gardner had 7-10 pt leads as well,  Quinnepiac sampled, and the Dems were well within margin of error as election came around, as we are full aware of.

It makes me cry that this is an "edited post"


RE: Sestak running on the good economy.

Toomey is the incumbent. The economy has turned around since he was elected. All the more to build the bipartisan image around. Hysterical how Dems think it is going to be easy to paint him as an extremist without a fight. Toomey is in the driver's seat, and that's undeniable. Time for him to push the gears of how this campaign will go.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Corey Gardner had 7-10 pt leads as well,  Quinnepiac sampled, and the Dems were well within margin of error as election came around, as we are full aware of.

It makes me cry that this is an "edited post"


RE: Sestak running on the good economy.

Toomey is the incumbent. The economy has turned around since he was elected. All the more to build the bipartisan image around. Hysterical how Dems think it is going to be easy to paint him as an extremist without a fight. Toomey is in the driver's seat, and that's undeniable. Time for him to push the gears of how this campaign will go.

While Toomey will be a tougher opponent than Santorum, it is hard to see, just like in the case of Mark kirk and Harry Reid, who are also vulnerable a presidential candidate winning their respective state, this case the Democrats and Democratic Nominee losing, but time will tell.

[Keystone Phil]

Junk poll, obviously!
#muhconvention
#muhhillarywinningpennsylvaniabyalandslide
#muhhillarycoattails
#muhtoomeyhasbadapprovalnumbers
#muhturnout
#muhdemographics

Chris Matthews said yesterday that the convention being in Philly will be what puts Sestak over the top. He also dropped this gem after agreeing with Andrea Mitchell that PA is a lock for the Dems:

"If your presidential candidate wins in Pennsylvania, you're going to win! That's the way it works with the Senate [race]." - Chris Matthews on Joe Sestak, apparently unaware that Richard Schweiker, John Heinz, Arlen Specter and Rick Santorum all won their Senate election in years when the Dem presidential nominee won the state.

[pbrower2a]

Corey Gardner had 7-10 pt leads as well,  Quinnepiac sampled, and the Dems were well within margin of error as election came around, as we are full aware of.

It makes me cry that this is an "edited post"


RE: Sestak running on the good economy.

Toomey is the incumbent. The economy has turned around since he was elected. All the more to build the bipartisan image around. Hysterical how Dems think it is going to be easy to paint him as an extremist without a fight. Toomey is in the driver's seat, and that's undeniable. Time for him to push the gears of how this campaign will go.

Prior affiliations (Club for Growth) that might not have been so troublesome in 2010 that could be more troublesome in 2016. Toomey has a voting record, and it is mostly Hard Right.

Joe Sestak might be have been the best candidate to run against Pat Toomey in 2010 and not the best in 2016.

Democrats can run against Hard Right ideology more successfully in 2016 than in 2010 or 2014 -- and a politician who holds that no hardships are excessive if they turn out a profit that only a few can derive a benefit from would be vulnerable in a state that just does not re-elect Hard Right pols in statewide elections.

Of course if the majority of Americans have become economic masochists they will get what they want -- plenty of hardship. Corporate America has always been generous with mass hardship when it had the opportunity to deliver such. 

[Keystone Phil]

Pbrower, pbrower. Nobody cares.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Toomey will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Toomey will win.

Election is 1.5 years away. Convention is in Philly, Sestak wont go quietly.

[IceSpear]

Toomey will win.

Election is 1.5 years away. Convention is in Philly, Sestak wont go quietly.

Nobody asked him to go away, but Toomey is going to win.

Based off a single poll?

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey will win.

Election is 1.5 years away. Convention is in Philly, Sestak wont go quietly.

Nobody asked him to go away, but Toomey is going to win.

Based off a single poll?

Well, based off of pbrower logic, the GOP has a better shot at winning Vermont in the 2016 Presidential election because of one poll in this race.

[Torie]

In other news, PA in 2012 had a Dem PVI of 1.17%, and incumbents typically garner a few points edge, particularly competent ones. Comparing Toomey to Kirk (yes, a competent incumbent too), when Illinois is so much more Democrat (yes, Kirk is more liberal on social issues than Toomey, but Toomey these days I think has a rather moderate image on social issues, e.g. gun control), seems really misguided to me. PA has a Democratic lean, but these days it's relatively slight. The GOP trend in Western PA, has pretty much offset the Dem trend in Chester, Montco, Dauphin and Delaware counties, and perhaps then some given the fracking issue (among others). Toomey has far fewer problems than say Johnson, given that WI is more Democratic, and Johnson does not really have a relatively moderate image on social issues, and in my view is a less skilled politician than Toomey. JMO.

How much trouble does Mr. pbrower think Portman is in? 

[Free Bird]

To answer Torie, Republicans have a better chance of getting Hawaii than Ohio by pbrower logic.