CA-NSON Opinion Strategies: Walker ahead
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  CA-NSON Opinion Strategies: Walker ahead
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Author Topic: CA-NSON Opinion Strategies: Walker ahead  (Read 1021 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 12, 2015, 09:14:11 AM »

Q1. If the election were held today, whom would you vote for?

120 (20.0%) Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin
64 (10.67%) Ben Carson, Professor of Neurosurgery
63 (10.5%) Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida
44 (7.33%) Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas
35 (5.83%) Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey
31 (5.17%) Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida
28 (4.67%) Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky
24 (4.0%) Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas
23 (3.83%) Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska
22 (3.67%) Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas
11 (1.83%) Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania
10 (1.67%) Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard
9 (1.50%) Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana
5 (0.83%) Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina
5 (0.83%) Donald Trump, Real Estate Investor
4 (0.67%) John Kasich, Governor of Ohio
102 (17.0%) No Opinion/ Don't Know

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The poll questions were completed by 600 likely Republican voters in the 2016 California Presidential primary election based on Political Data’s model. The sample size is considered large enough by NSON Opinion Strategy, a respected strategic public opinion research company based in Salt Lake City, Utah, to offer statistical significance in outcome, with +/- 4% margin of error at a 95% confidence level statewide. Telephone survey interviews were conducted statewide from Thursday, February 5 through Monday, February 9, by NSON Opinion Strategy.

http://www.capoliticalreview.com/top-stories/scott-walker-strongly-leads-gop-presidential-candidates-in-new-california-poll
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bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2015, 09:18:48 AM »

California is Walker Country. The Golden State will be key to the presidency.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2015, 10:12:44 AM »

Walkersanity
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2015, 01:58:43 PM »

California is Walker Country. The Golden State will be key to the presidency.

The nomination will likely already be decided by the time CA votes.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2015, 02:01:26 PM »

California is Walker Country. The Golden State will be key to the presidency.

The nomination will likely already be decided by the time CA votes.

I don't think so this time. The GOP primary in California will be the most intense since 2008 when McCain and Romney were fighting for California supremacy.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2015, 09:00:52 PM »

California is Walker Country. The Golden State will be key to the presidency.

The nomination will likely already be decided by the time CA votes.

I don't think so this time. The GOP primary in California will be the most intense since 2008 when McCain and Romney were fighting for California supremacy.

The 2008 California primary was in February, on Super Tuesday, but for 2012 they moved it back to June, and there's every indication that it'll remain in June.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2015, 09:08:13 PM »

They also do a poll test in which they limit the options to the following eight candidates:

Walker 23%
Bush 14%
Huckabee 11%
Cruz 8%
Rubio 8%
Paul 7%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 3%

In the larger sample of candidates, Walker leads among both men and women, as well as voters over 45 years old.  Carson and Paul tie for the lead among voters under 45.

Bush leads among both Asians and Hispanics, but those are very tiny subsamples.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2015, 11:43:31 PM »

pretty embarrassing for Fiorina. Surprised Walker over Bush, I would have guess that would be the other way around. I guess winning the Limbaugh primary is paying off for Scott nationwide
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2015, 12:12:58 AM »

pretty embarrassing for Fiorina. Surprised Walker over Bush, I would have guess that would be the other way around. I guess winning the Limbaugh primary is paying off for Scott nationwide

Fiorina's definitely a joke. I'm sure that people remember her failed run in 2010.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2015, 12:26:16 AM »

I do actually think that at some point in the campaign, Fiorina will have some kind of media moment, where she gets some decent coverage just by virtue of being the only woman on the debate stage, but I'm not too optimistic about her being able to capitalize on that.

Of course, this hinges on her being invited to the debates, which I guess might not happen if she doesn't manage 1% in national polls.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2015, 12:31:46 AM »

I do actually think that at some point in the campaign, Fiorina will have some kind of media moment, where she gets some decent coverage just by virtue of being the only woman on the debate stage, but I'm not too optimistic about her being able to capitalize on that.

Of course, this hinges on her being invited to the debates, which I guess might not happen if she doesn't manage 1% in national polls.

The media seems to pick and choose who they dignify as "serious candidates". For example, I distinctly remember Huntsman and Perry not breaking the polling threshold at certain points in 2011/2012, yet they were invited to the debates anyway. But they didn't invite people like Johnson and Roemer.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2015, 12:49:11 AM »

I do actually think that at some point in the campaign, Fiorina will have some kind of media moment, where she gets some decent coverage just by virtue of being the only woman on the debate stage, but I'm not too optimistic about her being able to capitalize on that.

Of course, this hinges on her being invited to the debates, which I guess might not happen if she doesn't manage 1% in national polls.

The media seems to pick and choose who they dignify as "serious candidates". For example, I distinctly remember Huntsman and Perry not breaking the polling threshold at certain points in 2011/2012, yet they were invited to the debates anyway. But they didn't invite people like Johnson and Roemer.

But that was when the media organizations, in collaboration with the local party groups hosting the debates, controlled the invitations.  Now that the RNC has seized control of the debaters, Priebus has floated the idea of the party itself setting some kind of polling threshold.  Though he acknowledged that it would have to be a very low threshold for the early debates, or you risk never giving any longshots the chance to catch up.
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2015, 01:12:30 AM »

It would be a very bad thing if the California Republican primary is competitive and the Democratic primary isn't. Just look at what happened to CA-31 in 2012.
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