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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Major Cities where Whites Voted for Romney?
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Author Topic: Major Cities where Whites Voted for Romney?  (Read 13715 times)
Bismarck
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« Reply #25 on: October 20, 2015, 01:11:29 pm »

Fort Wayne whites are defiantly republican. Indianapolis has to be pretty close, but this is because the inner suburbs are part of the city.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #26 on: October 20, 2015, 01:12:57 pm »

Fort Wayne whites are defiantly republican. Indianapolis has to be pretty close, but this is because the inner suburbs are part of the city.

You'd probably know more than I would, but when I've visited (about four or five times now), Indianapolis seemed like a VERY Republican city.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #27 on: October 20, 2015, 01:14:16 pm »

Fort Wayne City Council has to be one of the most right-wing city councils of any major city in America.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #28 on: October 20, 2015, 01:16:12 pm »

Fort Wayne City Council has to be one of the most right-wing city councils of any major city in America.

That doesn't necessarily say that much.  Republicans have 100% control of the San Diego city council and only one vote short in LA, if I remember correctly.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #29 on: October 20, 2015, 01:48:24 pm »

Downtown Indy is very democratic, there is a large black population and white liberals. The white liberals downtown did vote for Mitch Daniels in 2008 while voting heavily Obama at the same time. The south side (Perry, Decatur, and Franklin Townships) are white suburban areas that are heavily republican. The far north side is rich white suburbs that are republican but have diversified in recent years and have trended Dem. The west side (Wayne Township) is diverse and has trended heavily Dem as whites have moved out and minorities have moved in. Whites here are definatly R's. Pike Township (northwest) is very diverse and is plurality black. I'm not sure how whites voted here. Overall Marion county is about 60 % non Hispanic white. So I would say whites as a whole there are not overwhelmingly R or D.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #30 on: October 20, 2015, 02:01:31 pm »
« Edited: October 20, 2015, 02:03:03 pm by Chancellor »

http://dpuadweb.depauw.edu/$1~kkauffman/newdrugzonelaws/Images/race/CensusBlocks.jpg]

Really cool results map for Indy elections.

and here is a map of black and hispanic population in Indy.
[url]http://dpuadweb.depauw.edu/$1~kkauffman/newdrugzonelaws/Images/race/CensusBlocks.jpg

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: October 20, 2015, 02:37:09 pm »


Yes, Fort Wayne. How could I miss that one?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: October 20, 2015, 02:58:20 pm »

Good work Chancellor!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #33 on: October 20, 2015, 03:02:16 pm »

San Antonio seems like a place that would fall into this category?

Is St. Louis a possibility?


St. Louis City Whites are heavily Democratic, though if you merged St. Louis City and St. Louis County, I would imagine whites voted narrowly for Romney.
After referencing Missouri SOS numbers and AdamGriffin's Obama % of White vote map, I am actually beginning to think Obama won white voters in St. Louis.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #34 on: October 20, 2015, 03:10:39 pm »

Billings, MT probably.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: October 20, 2015, 04:27:19 pm »

Fort Worth
Amarillo
Lubbock
Wichita Falls
Oklahoma City
Tulsa
Wichita
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2015, 11:09:05 pm »

This is only semi-relevant, but I thought I'd drop it in.  My sister goes to Butler, a very White private school in Indianapolis.  She sent me some screenshots of this app that anonymously asks questions of people in and around the campus area and updates the results.  Anyway, here were the political party results:

48% Republican
28% Democrat
24% Independent

Again, this is skewing upper-middle class and White, but I thought I'd share it.  Every time I'VE been in Indianapolis, it has seemed quite Republican, and she said her friends from there have said most Whites are GOP-leaning, but I'm imagining their parents don't live downtown (they do live in the city, though, not the suburbs).
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RFayette
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2015, 11:24:08 pm »
« Edited: October 29, 2015, 11:26:29 pm by MW Representative RFayette »

This is only semi-relevant, but I thought I'd drop it in.  My sister goes to Butler, a very White private school in Indianapolis.  She sent me some screenshots of this app that anonymously asks questions of people in and around the campus area and updates the results.  Anyway, here were the political party results:

48% Republican
28% Democrat
24% Independent


Again, this is skewing upper-middle class and White, but I thought I'd share it.  Every time I'VE been in Indianapolis, it has seemed quite Republican, and she said her friends from there have said most Whites are GOP-leaning, but I'm imagining their parents don't live downtown (they do live in the city, though, not the suburbs).

I have a friend who is going to Butler to study pharmacy, so this is kind of interesting.  

That's a very conservative result for a college town area!  Are there other major industries that would make  the place more conservative?  This obviously isn't a scientific poll, but the results are fascinating nonetheless.

The other thing is that a lot of cities may "feel" pretty Republican even if they aren't - Nashville comes to mind right away - famous for its country music and voted the #1 most Bible-minded city in the country (two big plusses in my book Smiley ).  Nonetheless, Nashville voted handily for Obama, though I assume whites voted for Romney.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2015, 11:25:51 pm »

I can't see Romney winning South Bend whites. I know its a catholic college town, but its still a college town.

And White Catholics are still more Democratic than White Protestants.

Notre Dame isn't even in South Bend proper. South Bend is mostly blue collar union types and about average in the Catholic/Protestant department. It's the sort of rust belt city where the Dems clearly win whites.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2015, 11:33:52 pm »

I think Green Bay is a candidate here. It's "only" 78% white and Obama got 56% of the vote there. If the minorities voted 80% Obama then the white vote comes out to around 53-47 Romney.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #40 on: October 30, 2015, 12:05:03 am »

I think Green Bay is a candidate here. It's "only" 78% white and Obama got 56% of the vote there. If the minorities voted 80% Obama then the white vote comes out to around 53-47 Romney.

"Major cities"
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Gass3268
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« Reply #41 on: October 30, 2015, 12:14:06 am »

I think Green Bay is a candidate here. It's "only" 78% white and Obama got 56% of the vote there. If the minorities voted 80% Obama then the white vote comes out to around 53-47 Romney.

"Major cities"

It's bigger than South Bend.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2015, 10:39:15 am »

I think Green Bay is a candidate here. It's "only" 78% white and Obama got 56% of the vote there. If the minorities voted 80% Obama then the white vote comes out to around 53-47 Romney.

"Major cities"

It's bigger than South Bend.

"Major cities"
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #43 on: December 01, 2015, 10:57:09 pm »

San Antonio seems like a place that would fall into this category?

Is St. Louis a possibility?


Yes most definitely.  and To the person who said Tampa, Heck yes.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #44 on: June 06, 2016, 10:07:05 am »
« Edited: June 06, 2016, 10:11:04 am by President Griffin »


No way he won Atlanta whites:



Even if you assume black turnout was 100% of VAP and Obama won 100% of the black vote in 2008 + assume that Latino/Asian turnout was 100% of VAP and Obama won 70% of them, then Obama would have won 61% of whites.

In reality, Latino/Asian turnout was likely 1/3 of its VAP and Obama probably won around 96% of the black vote. That'd mean Obama won 70% of ATL whites in 2008; probably closer to 65% in 2012.

It's worth noting that whites in Fulton County - the northern half of which mostly includes heavily white areas that come closer to voting for the GOP in numbers like the outer suburbs do, and has very high turnout - was 42% Obama in 2008 and 37% Obama in 2012. Basically, whites in the non-ATL portions of Fulton vote 70-80% R; the whites in ATL are 60-70% D and skew the numbers/hide that reality.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #45 on: June 06, 2016, 10:23:43 am »

^^^ Also, I forgot to really promote my 2012 white vote project by county that I linked to in my previous post. It can help answer at least one other one:


Since Marion County, IN = Indianapolis, apparently, then I can report that Obama won 50% of the white vote there in 2012, plus or minus a couple of points. It is more accurate in counties where the share of the non-white, non-black vote is lowest. It's safe to say that the white vote was effectively tied in Indianapolis.
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Clarko95
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« Reply #46 on: June 06, 2016, 12:59:09 pm »


Since Marion County, IN = Indianapolis, apparently, then I can report that Obama won 50% of the white vote there in 2012, plus or minus a couple of points. It is more accurate in counties where the share of the non-white, non-black vote is lowest. It's safe to say that the white vote was effectively tied in Indianapolis.

Could you elaborate? Indianapolis seems like whites would narrowly vote Romney, simply because it annexed almsot all of its suburbs.
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #47 on: June 07, 2016, 12:30:57 am »
« Edited: June 07, 2016, 12:38:35 am by President Griffin »


Since Marion County, IN = Indianapolis, apparently, then I can report that Obama won 50% of the white vote there in 2012, plus or minus a couple of points. It is more accurate in counties where the share of the non-white, non-black vote is lowest. It's safe to say that the white vote was effectively tied in Indianapolis.

Could you elaborate? Indianapolis seems like whites would narrowly vote Romney, simply because it annexed almsot all of its suburbs.

I hope this makes sense. I feel like I started repeating myself after a while.

I built the national map out by using formulas that combined voter registration/voter turnout data by race (where available), and where not, Census 2010/2012 data that compared the difference/discrepancy between the share of each state's electorate by race (2008/2012 exit polling) with the share of the population of each state. Essentially, the white share of the vote was calculated by reverse-engineering the totals using non-white support and turnout levels, which are far easier to project as a whole. With all of this information, I then had available the basis for a "national formula" that plugged in all of these variables (turnout as a share of their adult population + support for Obama), and proceeded to build custom state-by-state formulas based on the information I was able to find. For instance, the formulas had to be customized to a greater degree in states like Texas (Latinos), where I had to do three separate rounds of tweaking not only statewide, but at the county level in order to produce something that is still probably quite inaccurate at the county level, but definitely less so than before.

In states like IN - where whites swung by some of the biggest margins of any state - I was able to use the formula with a combination of 2008 exit polling, the racial makeup of the state/likely electorate in both cycles, and the amount of the overall swing statewide from 2008-2012 to further refine the white share of the vote. States like IN were a bit easier to do due to their relative whiteness, and on top of that, analyzing that statewide swing to calculate the white share of the vote was more reliable since whites were such a large share of it. That was then extrapolated to the county level.

I'm quite confident with my projections in Indiana; +/- 2 points or so. However, if it is off, then it is more likely that Obama did even better: I observed - where it was possible for me to do so thanks to exit polling - that my formulas more often under-represented Obama's share of the white vote than it did over-represent it. It's also worth noting that my statewide formula for IN spat out the exact same number as the NYT exit poll ("38.0%" in my formula; "38%" for NYT).

Indianapolis may be to a greater extent like ATL. It seems to me at a glance that the (real) city comprises a greater share of the county's population than ATL proper does of Fulton County; it's possible that just like in Fulton/ATL, your city whites were overwhelmingly Democratic (65-70%) and the suburban folks were 30-40%. Those are just approximations/examples; I haven't actually broken down the county's population proportions et al to see what the most likely ratio would be in that case.
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wifikitten
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« Reply #48 on: June 07, 2016, 01:37:20 pm »

Fort Wayne City Council has to be one of the most right-wing city councils of any major city in America.

That doesn't necessarily say that much.  Republicans have 100% control of the San Diego city council and only one vote short in LA, if I remember correctly.
San Diego city council is 5-4 Democratic and the LA City council only has 1 Republican on it.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #49 on: June 07, 2016, 02:27:23 pm »
« Edited: June 07, 2016, 02:30:42 pm by TDAS04 »

Obama probably received a majority of the white vote in New Orleans proper.
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