5 Southern States

[classical liberal]

I think that Kerry's Catholicism may tip NM in his favor.  Also, DC isn't a state.

[angus]

I think that Kerry's Catholicism may tip NM in his favor.  Also, DC isn't a state.

I suppose as long as the GOP controls both legislative houses and most state legislatures, it never will be.  

[© tweed]

I define the south as:

Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Texas

I can't see Kerry winning one of those.

[classical liberal]

I define the South as the states and former territories that allowed slavery when it became a contentious issue, except for Kansas which I count as Northern.

[NHPolitico]

I think a Kerry-David Pryor ticket could win Arkansas. Pryor is only 70.  He's not in bad health as far as I know and he'd definitely bring in Arkansas. Two recent polls have Bush averaging 50% support there-- bad for a Southern state.

[agcatter]

possibly, but not a lock.  He'd be 71 on inauguration day and that won't play all that well in the rest of the country.  It certainly won't help Kerry in Ohio and that is the must win state.  Squeaking it out in Ark (again, no cinch) won't do a thing if Kerry loses Ohio and Florida.

[muon2]

I define the south as:

Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Texas

I can't see Kerry winning one of those.

Most pundits count "the South" as any of the states of the Confederacy. However, using that definition Clinton only took 4 of the states in each of his two elections: AR, GA, LA, TN in 1992, and AR, FL, LA, TN in 1996.

I agree that Kerry won't come close to four of the 11 states of the Confederacy. One or two would be a great result for him.

[12th Doctor]

I define the South as the states and former territories that allowed slavery when it became a contentious issue, except for Kansas which I count as Northern.

Your more or less alone on the definition.

[12th Doctor]

The "South".  All of the former Confederate states plus West Virginia and Kentucky.

It doesn't matter, this is NOT a factor in this election.

[Gustaf]

possibly, but not a lock.  He'd be 71 on inauguration day and that won't play all that well in the rest of the country.  It certainly won't help Kerry in Ohio and that is the must win state.  Squeaking it out in Ark (again, no cinch) won't do a thing if Kerry loses Ohio and Florida.

Well...if he holds on to everything else, he'd only need New Hampshire and Arkansas to win.

I would define the South as:

Arkansas

Lousiana

Tennessee

Virginia

Texas

Mississippi

Alabama

Georgia

South Carolina

North Carolina

Kentucky

That's 11. I tried to take political leanings more into account than historical or geographical stuff, while still keeping some of that in mind. Of those, the first 4 or so are less Southern politically, the last 7 more deep South.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How about this:

Deep South

Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Georgia

Deep South/Upper South

South Carolina
Arkansas

Upper South

Virginia*
Kentucky
West Virginia (also part of the Rust Belt, which isn't a N-S division)
Tennessee
North Carolina
Maryland*
Delaware*

Other

Texas
Florida
Oklahoma
Missouri
---

*=DC suburbs

[Gustaf]

How about this:

Deep South

Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Georgia

Deep South/Upper South

South Carolina
Arkansas

Upper South

Virginia*
Kentucky
West Virginia (also part of the Rust Belt, which isn't a N-S division)
Tennessee
North Carolina
Maryland*
Delaware*

Other

Texas
Florida
Oklahoma
Missouri
---

*=DC suburbs

Well, you probably know this better than I do, but Arkansas and Lousiana seem closer to each other than to the Deep South states. South Carolina-Arkansas on the one hand and Louisiana-Alabama on the other seem far apart politically.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True... but then I was being quite conventional.
AR and SC both have Deep and Upper areas...

I'll try messing around with county maps soon