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Author Topic: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances  (Read 5155 times)
Bevinevitable
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« on: February 16, 2015, 11:21:30 pm »

President Romney is sure glad the "models" were correct in 2012.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2015, 02:26:04 pm »

Junk model, obviously!
#HillaryIsInevitable
#DemographicsAreDestiny
#TheGOPHasNoSeriousCandidateWhoCaresAboutTheModelNoOneCanBeatHillary
#muhModelAlsoPredictedARomneyWinEvenThoughItDidn't
#MuhModelDoesn'tConsiderTurnout

For once, the "scientists" are wrong and the political operatives are right. You just CANNOT predict the outcome of an election between two persons based on past elections and "fundamentals", while ignoring the qualities of those two persons.

Uh, then why did everyone cheer Nate Silver? Why did so many Democrats predict Democratic wins in the South because of Demographics? Why does every Democrat cheer the polls 20 months before the election that are showing Hillary ahead by 10-16 points?

Nate Silver's model is mostly based on polling. These ones are based solely on "fundamentals" and "economic indicators", and assumes that candidates don't matter. The Republicans will win whether they nominate Palin/Trump or Kasich/Martinez. A pretty ludicrous concept.

As for the models predicting a Romney win, my initial post in this thread was tongue in cheek. Obviously the "models" in general all didn't predict a Romney win, because there is no consistency among the models. Some of them had Obama winning in a landslide, some of them had a razor thin election, some of them had a Romney landslide. The hacks of both parties constantly touted the models showing their respective party winning in a landslide. The rational people ignored them entirely.
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2015, 11:20:10 pm »

President Romney is sure glad the "models" were correct in 2012.

Every single ONE of those models picked Obama to win, even when Obama was polling poorly

This model was widely touted by the right wing blogosphere during 2012. Don't try to rewrite history.

Quote
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university#sthash.Yd7lxnQp.dpuf
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Bevinevitable
IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2015, 03:23:39 pm »

President Romney is sure glad the "models" were correct in 2012.

Every single ONE of those models picked Obama to win, even when Obama was polling poorly

This model was widely touted by the right wing blogosphere during 2012. Don't try to rewrite history.

Quote
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university#sthash.Yd7lxnQp.dpuf

The Time For A Change model predicted an Obama win

Yes, that's the point. Models ran the gamut from an Obama landslide to a Romney landslide.
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