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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, x)
  NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances  (Read 5844 times)
TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« on: February 17, 2015, 10:17:39 am »

This article's basically right, although a Republican win isn't inevitable either. It's really impossible to predict the outcome of an open seat presidential race this early in the cycle (races with incumbent presidents are a little easier).

And why are people saying the model favored Romney in 2012? The article explicitly says that isn't the case. The only thing in Romney's favor was the bad economy, but as other people have noted, what matters most to voters is the DIRECTION (i.e. is getting better or worse) of the economy, not whether's it's bad or good.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2015, 12:13:40 pm »

- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)

Uh...by my count, the Dems are only one key away from defeat.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2015, 01:00:51 am »

- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)

Uh...by my count, the Dems are only one key away from defeat.

According to the author of the 'keys' model, she is two away (as of last summer)
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/208673-why-democrats-need-hillary-clinton-in-2016

He wrote that before the midterm elections. Key 1 has fallen, albeit just barely.
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2015, 08:57:44 am »

- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)

Uh...by my count, the Dems are only one key away from defeat.

According to the author of the 'keys' model, she is two away (as of last summer)
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/208673-why-democrats-need-hillary-clinton-in-2016

He wrote that before the midterm elections. Key 1 has fallen, albeit just barely.

Does the current state of Libya, Syria, and Iraq not qualify as losing the tenth Key as well?

It's a close call...it takes something dramatic to turn Key 10. I don't think any of those events BY THEMSELVES  count, but combined they might. I'll just say it's a key in play for now.
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