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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, x)
  NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances  (Read 5821 times)
bobloblaw
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« on: February 18, 2015, 06:00:18 pm »

President Romney is sure glad the "models" were correct in 2012.

Every single ONE of those models picked Obama to win, even when Obama was polling poorly
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2015, 06:01:20 pm »

Most of the time the party holds the White House for a 3rd term.

Yes: 1796, 1812, 1836, 1868, 1908, 1928, 1940, 1988
Stolen: 2000
No: 1920, 1960, 1968, 1976, 2008

Hillary is perfectly capable of losing this without Obama's help.

2000 wasnt stolen, though Gore tried awfully hard. Too bad you leftist dont believe in the 14th Amendment.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2015, 06:07:56 pm »

Why does every Democrat cheer the polls 20 months before the election that are showing Hillary ahead by 10-16 points?

Dude, it's because she is all the Democrats have left.

The entire country is pretty much Republican. The most watched news network is Fox. The most listened to talk radio show is Rush Limbaugh. There are 50 Governors, only 18 of them are Democrats. The Republicans just gained more seats in the House and Senate than they have had in decades. They have a huge white voter problem, so they try and spin that Hillary will win white guys in Arkansas.

It's all a pipe dream. I honestly think the Obama coalition is running the risk of becoming the rainbow coalition. If you like that, ask President Mondale and President Dukakis how well they enjoyed it.

It was a 52-48 split in favor of the Democrats in 2008 and 2012 (Democrats got a majority of the vote in House seats in 2012, but GOP-majorities had successfully gerrymandered most Congressional districts to favor the GOP) and about a 52-48 Republican split in 2010 and 2014. A 52-48 split hardly indicates electoral dominance unless something is screwy. The Republicans basically found ways to set up a few D-dominant districts in which the Democrat is likely to win 70-30 and dilute the rest of the Democratic vote in districts that go 54-46 Republican.

FoX News Channel may be the most watched cable  "news" network, but it is also the most reviled.  Rush Limbaugh is a sick joke except among right-wingers.  If liberals get stuck listening to him they ask to change the channel. If nobody changes the channel they do so themselves. That's draft-dodging militarist Rush Limbaugh who bullied a maid into getting street oxycontin for him.  

Republican elected officials may be the majority -- but their approval ratings are abysmal. As a nation we have had a hard time, and we are fussy. Some well-heeled plutocrats found a way of exploiting that discontent while saddling America with pols likely to do nothing but enrich those well-heeled heels. The ideal American to them is someone who asks for a pay cut and is so thankful for getting to keep his job.

Most of the potential Republican nominees for President have huge gaping holes in their personalities or stand for extreme positions.

I look at the map of GOP support and I see more connections to 'whiteness',  religious affiliation (especially Mormons and Southern Baptists) or to thin population.  

For political careers the best prediction on long careers is "perform or perish". Performance can be as simple as getting appropriations for job-creating public works. For most Republicans the key to success in getting campaign funds is to obey the Koch syndicate. "My" representative is a case in point; he gets lavish support from interests intent upon bleeding the the American middle class for a few plutocrats for whom we are told to suffer with a smile.

I wipe my hands on my shirt or my slacks rather than dirty them on Koch paper products.

You numbers are off

2012 Dems won 48.8% to 47.6%. Since we dont run candidates at large nationally, one point is nothing and there have been elections in the past that were close in the popular vote for congress that werent in term of seats won. In fact in 1968 the GOP lost the House vote by 1.5 points and got only 190 seats.

2014: The GOP won 50.9 to 45.6. That is over a 5 point victory.


Despite hating Israel, Israel has the electoral system that the left wants. Proportional representation and everyone runs at large. It results in unstable governments that are at the mercy of fringe parties to create a government
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2015, 06:12:09 pm »

Why does every Democrat cheer the polls 20 months before the election that are showing Hillary ahead by 10-16 points?

Dude, it's because she is all the Democrats have left.

The entire country is pretty much Republican. The most watched news network is Fox. The most listened to talk radio show is Rush Limbaugh. There are 50 Governors, only 18 of them are Democrats. The Republicans just gained more seats in the House and Senate than they have had in decades. They have a huge white voter problem, so they try and spin that Hillary will win white guys in Arkansas.

It's all a pipe dream. I honestly think the Obama coalition is running the risk of becoming the rainbow coalition. If you like that, ask President Mondale and President Dukakis how well they enjoyed it.

Yes, old white people are the most politically engaged, which is why FOX & Limbaugh are as popular as they are. This isn't opinion, go look at FOX's demographics. You guys sure are getting obnoxious about an election in which 33% voted. If you want to claim the majority of the electorate, that would still be blatantly false but go right ahead. But don't try to claim the "entire country" is Republican.

Engaged -- sure. But they are also disinformed and manipulated. They are old, and they are dying off. They are not influencing younger voters who may be more interested in relief from student loans than in "gun rights".

Barack Obama built a far-sturdier and far-more-successful coalition than Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition. His electoral apparatus has gone lock, stock, and barrel to Hillary Clinton... and that is how things start.



One of the great follies the left engages in is in thinking that how people vote when they are young is how they will vote all their lives.

They point out how conservative older voters re, but they miss the fact that these older voters were JFK supporters, voted LBJ by greater than the national popular margin and were Nixon's weakest demographic in 1972.

The left is EXTREMELY wedded to the idea of a permanent majority caused by demographics because the left fundamentally doesnt like elections. They years for a one party progressive state that creates a utopia. Where the one party isnt defeated by recession, corruption or foreign policy issues. The left's ideal looks a lot like Mexico under the PRI from 1929-2000 or Post 1994 South Africa.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2015, 02:01:57 pm »

President Romney is sure glad the "models" were correct in 2012.

Every single ONE of those models picked Obama to win, even when Obama was polling poorly

This model was widely touted by the right wing blogosphere during 2012. Don't try to rewrite history.

Quote
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http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university#sthash.Yd7lxnQp.dpuf

The Time For A Change model predicted an Obama win
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2015, 02:04:55 pm »

President Romney is sure glad the "models" were correct in 2012.

^This. Also, never doubt the chances that the Republican candidate, probably Jeb or Walker at this point (more so Walker) will end up pushing social issues or generally gaffing it up right until November. Add in the fact that the GOP owns both houses in Congress and it makes oppo far easier for Hillary's team: just ran against the do-nothing regressivists and tie their candidate to D.C.

And don't neglect that even if the nominee or vp nominee don't gaffe it up, some Republican somewhere will make an incredibly offensive statement regarding women, which the party will then refuse to clearly condemn.

It seems the left's entire strategy is hope the GOP gaffes and demographics will deliver a win.
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