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November 14, 2019, 05:52:23 am
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, x)
  NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances  (Read 5846 times)
Likely Voter
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« on: February 17, 2015, 11:40:33 pm »

I guess it all depends on which tea leaves you want to look at. This analysis of post-WW2 trends is bad for the Dems. And there is the precedent that the younger candidate tends to win (and everyone is younger than Hillary)

Then there are things that show Dem advantages:
- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)
- Demographic analysis trend
- Betting odds
- Polls (w/ Hillary)

So there is something for everybody to hang hat on
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2015, 05:05:22 pm »

- 'Keys to the Whitehouse' model (also based on fundamentals)

Uh...by my count, the Dems are only one key away from defeat.

According to the author of the 'keys' model, she is two away (as of last summer)
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/208673-why-democrats-need-hillary-clinton-in-2016
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