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November 11, 2019, 03:52:20 pm
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, x)
  NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances  (Read 5822 times)
Devils30
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Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« on: February 17, 2015, 11:12:31 pm »

A lot of the academics are only looking post WW2, a huge mistake. The best period to look at is probably the late 1800s which had a GOP presidential majority but Democrats often controlled Congress. A lot of the elections were close in the 1880s and gave the GOP 51-47, 52-46 majorities in the 1890s. The problem for today's GOP is that demographics opened up the GOP's margins in the early 1900s, something that can happen for today's Democrats as more minorities become regular voters. And this will eventually trickle down to Congress as it did then.

If the GOP wins in 2016 then they could reverse their decline with young people and minorities but they also could be a one-term wreck like Carter was in 1980.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,904
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2015, 06:39:48 pm »

With only 17 Presidential elections since 1948 that's just not a strong sample size. Even in the history of the country there's only been 57 elections. Every single data point should be looked at, even the late 1800s. Particularly as it was a period of polarization similar to today.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,904
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2015, 08:28:03 pm »

Romney did not win voters 18-20, that survey was flawed. You can't reconcile that with the exit poll.
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll

Unless Obama won 80% of 22-24 voters there is zero chance Romney won voters in the age 18-20 range.
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Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,904
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2015, 05:16:29 pm »

Typical Republican: "The White House isn't won by a party three times in a row so we can run out someone from the same family as the guy who left the WH with 25% approval 8 years ago."

Good luck trying to explain that to workers in Ohio.
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