Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 18, 2019, 08:23:56 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
| | |-+  NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances  (Read 5166 times)
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,872
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile
« on: February 17, 2015, 11:12:31 pm »

A lot of the academics are only looking post WW2, a huge mistake. The best period to look at is probably the late 1800s which had a GOP presidential majority but Democrats often controlled Congress. A lot of the elections were close in the 1880s and gave the GOP 51-47, 52-46 majorities in the 1890s. The problem for today's GOP is that demographics opened up the GOP's margins in the early 1900s, something that can happen for today's Democrats as more minorities become regular voters. And this will eventually trickle down to Congress as it did then.

If the GOP wins in 2016 then they could reverse their decline with young people and minorities but they also could be a one-term wreck like Carter was in 1980.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,872
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2015, 06:39:48 pm »

With only 17 Presidential elections since 1948 that's just not a strong sample size. Even in the history of the country there's only been 57 elections. Every single data point should be looked at, even the late 1800s. Particularly as it was a period of polarization similar to today.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,872
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2015, 08:28:03 pm »

Romney did not win voters 18-20, that survey was flawed. You can't reconcile that with the exit poll.
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll

Unless Obama won 80% of 22-24 voters there is zero chance Romney won voters in the age 18-20 range.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,872
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2015, 05:16:29 pm »

Typical Republican: "The White House isn't won by a party three times in a row so we can run out someone from the same family as the guy who left the WH with 25% approval 8 years ago."

Good luck trying to explain that to workers in Ohio.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines