Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016)

[Hatman 🍁]

Apropos of nothing, there has NEVER been a Canadian PM who was ever a provincial premier. Every provincial premier who has taken a stab at federal politics has flopped.

This has always striked me as odd. Any idea as to why? Is it the language issue? Is it that Premiers are usually unpopular by the time they leave office, thereby ruining a chance to jump to federal politics? If Wall remains popular, that wouldn't be an issue.

Wall doesn't have to be that proficient in French, I think. He doesn't have to master the language by 2017; he would have to be somewhat fluent by 2019 though, if he wins the leadership.

[RogueBeaver]

Big fish in smaller ponds out of their depth in an ocean.

[Hatman 🍁]

Big fish in smaller ponds out of their depth in an ocean.

I don't think this argument carries any weight. One can say the same thing about governors in the US, and they have still been elected to the Presidency, for example.

[DL]

Apropos of nothing, there has NEVER been a Canadian PM who was ever a provincial premier. Every provincial premier who has taken a stab at federal politics has flopped.

This has always striked me as odd. Any idea as to why? Is it the language issue? Is it that Premiers are usually unpopular by the time they leave office, thereby ruining a chance to jump to federal politics? If Wall remains popular, that wouldn't be an issue.

Wall doesn't have to be that proficient in French, I think. He doesn't have to master the language by 2017; he would have to be somewhat fluent by 2019 though, if he wins the leadership.

Any party leader would have to speak French well enough to take part in a French language leaders debate in 2019...you have to be VERY fluent to be able to do that competently.

I think part of why provincial premiers fail in Canadian federal politics is that Canada is a country with a lot of regional tensions and rivalries and premiers often have a hard time making a convincing case that they can represent the "national interest". For example Wall has a lot of profile a regional chauvinistic spokesman for the Prairies and has made public statements about how Ottawa should just ram pipelines down the throats of other provinces whether they like it or not...good luck with that

[DC Al Fine]

Big fish in smaller ponds out of their depth in an ocean.

I don't think this argument carries any weight. One can say the same thing about governors in the US, and they have still been elected to the Presidency, for example.

I'd chalk it up to small sample size frankly.

[2952-0-0]

In any case, Brad Wall can't resign before 2017 without seeming nakedly opportunistic.

Why?

I can see 22 Minutes doing the skit now:

"I'm resigning as Premier and Party Leader despite winning another mandate three months ago because...uh...I prefer the wetter snow in Ottawa to the dry snow of Saskatchewan in January..."

[136or142]

In any case, Brad Wall can't resign before 2017 without seeming nakedly opportunistic.

Why?

I can see 22 Minutes doing the skit now:

"I'm resigning as Premier and Party Leader despite winning another mandate three months ago because...uh...I prefer the wetter snow in Ottawa to the dry snow of Saskatchewan in January..."

I'd guess no more than 500,000 Canadians still watch 22 Minutes and nearly all of them are either Liberals or New Democrats.  I'm sure you're just using that as an example of the mocking he'd receive, but were he to resign shortly after getting reelected, I also highly doubt all that many people would care about it by the time of the leadership campaign.  Also, the circumstances are fairly different, but in 1999-2000, Roy Romanow resigned as Premier shortly after being reelected.

[136or142]

I don't actually agree that comments on the possibility that Brad Wall might resign shortly after the election are off topic, but for those who do, the NDP nominated their candidate in Weyburn-Big Muddy yesterday, meaning they have just ten more candidates to nominate.

I'd be surprised if they filled their slate by the end of the year, but it seems they may be trying to make an effort to do so.  I'd mention who their candidate in that riding is but I don't remember right now and it doesn't really matter anyway.   Anybody interested though can easily google the Saskatchewan NDP website and check their news section.

[136or142]

New Mainstreet Technologies poll in Saskatchewan has these numbers with the undecided factored out:
Sask: 52%
NDP: 34%
Liberal: 10%
Green: 3%

Those with memories of the 2007 election will note that those numbers are very similar to that election result:

Sask: 51%
NDP: 37%
Liberal: 9%
Green: 2%

Even the regional numbers in both Saskatoon and 'rest of Saskatchewan' are very similar.  Regina is quite different because :
1.In 2007 a Sask Party candidate dropped out and his name and the party were removed from the ballot.

2.In this Mainstreet Technology poll, the Green Party is at 9% in Regina.

These are the breakdowns

2007 percentage results (2015 poll in brackets)

Rest of Province
Sask: 60% (57%)
NDP: 32% (30%)
Lib: 6.5% (10%)

Saskatoon
Sask: 43%
NDP: 42%
Lib: 13%

I don't remember the exact numbers from the new Mainstreet Poll but I recall they give the Sask Party a 3% point lead in Saskatoon.

Regina
Sask: 36%
NDP: 47.5%
Lib: 14%
Green: 2.5%

The new Mainstreet poll gives the Sask Party an 8 or 9% point lead in Regina, but keep in mind the two points I made above.

The NDP won 20 of the 58 seats in the 2007 election (there are now 61 ridings) and narrowly lost another seven seats.  However, since the 'power of incumbency' is now with the Sask Party I would think if the gap doesn't narrow further between the Sask Party and the NDP between now and election day that the best the NDP will do is in the 15-20 seat range (probably closer to 15 seats).  Still not a bad increase from 2011.

[136or142]

Over the weekend, the NDP completed their slate of candidates for the election.

Saskatoon
1.Saskatoon-Westview, Cam Broten,38, M.L.A 2007- and Party Leader 2013-

2.Saskatoon Centre, David Forbes-60, M.L.A 2001-

3.Saskatoon-Riversdale, Danielle Chartier, M.L.A 2009-

4.Saskatoon-Nutana, Cathy Sproule, M.L.A 2011-

5.Saskatoon-Fairview, Vicki Mowat, Sociology Lecturer, Canadian Forces Reserve Captain and former North Saskatchewan Regiment Army Cadet Corps Commanding Officer, B.A (Hons)- Sociology, M.A-Sociology, half marathon runner, cross county skiier, curler

6.Saskatoon-Eastview, Jesse Todd, Canada Food inspection Agency Agricultural Inspector, PSAC Chief Shop Steward, B.A-, football and rugby coach

7.Saskatoon Southeast, Clayton Wilson, Saskatoon School Division Electronics Support Technician, former union local vice president and shop steward, SGI Motorcycle Riding Instructor, former D.J Business Owner, banjo player

8.Saskatoon-Meewasin, Nicole White, READ Saskatoon Financial Literacy Coordinator (Director), Quint Development Corporation Director, former executive director AIDS Saskatoon, former journalist, B.A-English and History, 2011 nominee in Saskatoon Northwest, Ryan Meili leadership campaign manager

9.Saskatoon-Silver Springs-Sutherland, Zaigham Kayani, Owner All Seasons Driving School, former driving instructor, CFC Weekly Radio Freelance Journalist, President Pakistan Canadian Cultural Association, B.A-English and Political Science

10.Saskatoon-Churchill-Wildwood, Tanya Dunn-Pierce, Public Health Services Manager of Health Promotion Department, B.Sc-Nutrition, MSc-Community Health and Epidemiology, basketball, soccer and football player

11.Saskatoon-University, Jennnifer Bowes, Health Sciences Association (Union) Labour Relations Officer, former United Food and Commercial Workers Local union representative, former Ministry of Social Services income assistance worker, former Saskatchewan Elizabeth Fry Society vice president, B.A-Psychology

12.Saskatoon-Willowgrove, Tajinder Grewal, University of Saskatchewan Department of Plant Sciences Research Officer, Former Saskatchewan Research Counsel scientist, PhD- Plant Sciences (Pathology, Genomics and Breeding) former Punjabi Cultural Association of Canada President, Saskatoon Field Hockey Club co-founder

Saskatoon/Rural
13.Saskatoon Northwest, Michael Karras, K-12 School Vice Principal, former special education teacher, Past President Learning Disabilities Association of Saskatchewan, B-Education, B-Special Education

14.Saskatoon-Stonebridge-Dakota, Steve Jimbo, Project Manager and Post Doctoral Research Scientist Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization University of Saskatchewan

Saskatoon Suburb
1.Martensville-Warman, Jasmine Calix, Saskatoon Police Service Crime Free Multi Housing Program Assistant Coordinator, former University of Saskatchewan research analyst, Martensville Housing Authority Director, B.A-Politics (Studio Art?) M.A-Political Studies and International Relations

Regina
1.Regina-Rosemont, Trent Wotherspoon,37, M.L.A 2007-

2.Regina-Elphinstone-Centre, Warren McCall,44 M.L.A 2001-

3.Regina-Pasqua, Heather McIntyre, Communications Consultant, former vice president Montessori School of Regina (non profit), B.A-Radio and Television, 2009 and 2012 city council candidate (narrow defeat)

4.Regina-Douglas Park, Nicole Sarauer,30, Pro Bono Lawyer and Pro Bono Legal Society Programs Manager, Amnesty International Regina Board Member, B-Laws (Hons), Regina Catholic School Trustee 2012-

5.Regina-Coronation Park, Ted Jaleta, Recently Retired Canada Revenue Agency Collections Contact Officer, former University of Regina track and field and cross country coach, former long distance runner, former Ethiopian Olympic hopeful

6.Regina-Rochdale, Brett Estey, Civil Servant, former Canadian Cancer Society cancer control coordinator, B.A-Political Science and History (Distinction), former high school football player and former high school assistant offensive line coach

7.Regina-Gardiner Park, Faycal Haggui, Saskatchewan Ministry of Labour Risk Assessment and Planning Senior Policy Analyst, former economics professor, M.A-Economics and Management, PhD-Agricultural Economics

8.Regina-Lakeview Carla Beck, Social Worker and Assistant Executive Director Regina Transition House, School Trustee 2009- (NDP riding, MLA John Nilson retiring)

9.Regina-University, Aleana Young,28, Aquistore (carbon capture and storage) Communications and Reporting Officer, Family Services Regina Director, Food Writer, B.A (Hons)-World Religions, B.A-Eastern European History, M.A-Religious Studies, Minor-Canadian History, fluent in Biblical Greek, School Trustee 2012-

10.Regina Northeast, Kathleen O'Reilly, Education Professor and book author ('Tales out of School') former Government of Saskatchewan Office of Disabilities policy adviser, B.A- B-Education, M-Education, PhD,  School Trustee

11.Regina-Walsh Acres, Terry Bell, Local Television Broadcaster Writer and Producer, President Plough Wind Productions (self employed film maker), Diploma-Broadcast Communications, Regina Little Theatre Actor

Regina/Rural
12.Regina-Wascana Plains, Kaytlyn Criddle, E-Health Saskatchewan Health Policy Analyst, former foreign development worker, Certificate-International Development, B.A-Anthropology, Minors-Sociology, MPA Student


Smaller Cities
1.Prince Albert-Northcote, Nicole Rancourt,39, Registered Mental Health and Addictions Social Worker and anger management group facilitator, Health Sciences Association Activist, Business Administration Certificate, BSW, slow pitch player

2.Prince Albert-Carlton, Shane Lazarowich, Prince Albert Multi Cultural Council Executive Director, President Prince Albert Branch Canadian Mental Health Association, Roots Band Member 'All Mighty Voice', Prince Albert and District Chamber of Commerce Director, B.A (Hons)- Political Studies

3.Moose Jaw-Wakamow, Karen Purdy, Licensed Practical Nurse, SEIU - West - Nurses Unit Chair, St. Andrew's Church Music Director

04.Moose Jaw North, Corey Atkinson, Moose Jaw Times-Herald Reporter and Photographer and former Sports Reporter, B.A - Philosophy and Religious Studies

5.Swift Current, Hailey Clark, Roots Canada Store Assistant Manager, french as a second language program graduate, kayaker, painter and drawer, lives in Regina

6.Yorkton, Greg Olson, SaskTel Technical Analyst, Unifor Local Treasurer and Unifor Representative on Saskatchewan Federation of Labour Executive Board, B.Sc - Computer Science, Certificate - Economics, Masters Certificate - Business

7.The Battlefords, Rob Feist, Norssask Law Lawyer, Former Canadian Forces Captain and Army Cadet Corps Commander, B.A - Sociology, J.D

Smaller Cities/Rural
1.Estevan, Cameron Robock, Purolator Employee, former oilfield worker, 2008 by-election and 2012 Estevan city council candidate

2.Lloydminster, Michelle Oleksyn, Comprehensive High School Teacher, former farmer, Lioness Club President, B - Education

3.Weyburn-Big Muddy, Mark Jeworski, Heavy Equipment Operator and Miner, United Mine Workers Activist, Trained Mechanic

[136or142]

North
1.Athabasca, Buckley Belanger,56, M.L.A 1995- (Liberal 1995-1998)

2.Cumberland, Doyle Vermette, M.L.A 2008-

Rural 'North' (Centre of Province)
1.Saskatchewan Rivers, Lyle Whitefish, Elementary School Principal, Former home construction worker, Former Native Band Councillor and former Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations 4th Vice President, B - Education

2.Batoche, Clay Debray,37, Sask Sport Metis Community Sport Consultant, Co-Chair Saskatchewan First Nations Summer Games and Coordinator North American Indigenous Games, former Adelaide Avalanche ice hockey team player and captain (Australian Hockey League), former Canadian major junior hockey team head coach, 2011 nominee in Rosthern-Shellbrook

3.Meadow Lake, Dwayne Lasas, Metis Addictions Council of Saskatchewan Addictions Counselor, Professional Musician and former minor role actor in 'North of 60', Meadow Lake Tribal Council Vice President (with expertise on forestry and resource issues), Saskatchewan Indian Cultural Center Director

4.Rosthern-Shellbrook, Rose Freeman, Owner Willow Insurance Agency and Insurance Broker, President Shell Lake Chamber of Commerce, Diploma- Advanced Financial Services (Distinction), Canadian Accredited Insurance Broker Designation, Shell Lake Curling Club Secretary Treasurer

5.Cut Knife-Turtleford, Danica Lorer, Professional Storyteller and Writing Workshop Facilitator, Saskatchewan Writers Union Director, Canadian Children's Book Center T.D Canada Book Week Tour Coordinator, B.A-

6.Melfort, Linsey Thornton, High School Business Teacher, Union Local Executive and Saskatchewan Teachers Federation Councillor. B-Education (Business and Mathematics), B-Commerce (Human Resource Management), high school basketball coach

7.Carrot River Valley, Sandy Ewen, Beef Cattle Farmer and Honey Farmer, Kelsey Trail Health Region Recreation Therapist, Chair Tisdale Recreation and Parks Board, former mine driller, logger and youth worker, soccer, baseball and hockey teams coach and manager

East Central Saskatchewan (formerly known as 'Red Square')
1.Melville-Saltcoats, Leonard Dales, Cow and Calf Farmer, Health Facility Maintenance Power Engineer,  former Transport Canada flight service officer, former hotel manager, former Prairie Cooperatives Director, 4-H Saskatchewan Council Board Member, 2011 nominee

2.Canora-Pelly, Theresa Wilson, Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Program Agri- Stability Call Center Operator, former substitute teacher, B.A-English, Minors-Environmental Studies and Native Studies, Ukrainian dancer and former volleyball coach, player and team manager, horse rider,  Melville Area School Trustee (first ran for nomination in Melville-Saltcoats),  

3.Last Mountain-Touchwood, Mary Ann Harrison, NUPGE (SGEU) Saskatchewan Vice President and former union local treasurer, Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways and Infrastructure Administrative Manager (on-leave)

4.Humboldt-Watrous, Adam Duke,28, Royal Canadian League Branch Branch Services Officer

5.Kelvington-Wadena, Dan Hiscock, School Counselor, Canadian Forces Veteran

South and Central West Saskatchewan
1.Kindersley, Charles Jedlicka, Grade Six Teacher, former emergency services technician

2.Rosetown-Elrose, Glenn Wright, Cameco McLean Lake Mill Manager and Grain Farmer, former mine company chief metalurgist, BSc and MSc- Mechanical Engineering, cross country skiier, motorsports and drag racer, in 1998 biked across Canada, 2011 nominee in Biggar, 2015 federal nominee in Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek

3.Cypress Hills, Barb Genert, Owner/Operator Sunny's Auto Body, former health care worker

4.Arm River, Denise Leduc, Town of Imperial Branch Library Librarian and Writer, B.A-

5.Lumsden-Morse, Rhonda Phillips, High School Biology Teacher, President Saskatchewan Outdoor and Environmental Educators Association, B.Sc- Biology, B -Education, canoer, hiker and cross country skiier, Lumsden Town Councillor 2009-

6.Wood River, Brenda Shenhen, Film and Television Costume Designer (Award Winning), former MCA Records and concert promotions firm promotions and publicity staffer, former SaskCulture Director, Child Care Center Co-operative Director, B.A-. B-Education- English , B-Education-English Literature, B-Education- Arts Education-Cinema and Television

7.Biggar-Sask Valley, Dan Richert, LaRoche-McDonald Angencies Employee (Non Profit Housing), former Rosthern Junior College Dean of Students and former development and community relations officer, B.A-Political Studies, (Lives in Saskatoon, but has family who live in the riding)

South East
1.Indian Head-Milestone, Ashley Nemeth, (Legally Blind), Canadian National Instititue for the Blind Volunteer and blog owner 'Blind Moving On', former Insurance Broker, snowboarder and camper (born with limited vision)

2.Moosomin, Ashlee Hicks, Maple Leaf Food Employee, Former United Food and Commercial Workers Activist, Studied Accounting

3.Cannington, Nathaniel Cole, Canadian Ministry of Employment and Social Development Payment Services Officer, former Moose Mountain and Cannington Manor Provincial Parks interpretative guide and guide team leader, former political campaign consultant, B.A-History and Political Science, French Language Certificate, glider pilot license, curler, half marathon runner, Past President Saskatchewan Young New Democrats

[136or142]

This would be my choice for cabinet were every New Democratic candidate to be elected

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Cam Broten
2.Finance, Deputy Premier, Trent Wotherspoon
3.Economic Development and Trade, Danielle Chartier
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Rose Freeman
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Rob Feist
6.Natural Resources, Rhonda Phillips
7.Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Leonard Dales
8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, David Forbes
9.Environment and Parks, Glenn Wright
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Buckley Belanger
11.Government Services and Public Works/Status of Women, Nicole White
12.Human Resources and Housing, Shane Lazarowich
13.Children and Family Development, Carla Beck
14.Education, Lyle Whitefish
15.Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Kathleen O'Reilly
16.Health, Government House Leader, Warren McCall
17.Municipal Affairs, Nicole Sarauer
18.Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs, Doyle Vermette
19.Justice and Public Safety, Cathy Sproule

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: 55/33/9.

[RogueBeaver]

Legislature will be dissolved today, E-Day April 4.

[DC Al Fine]

First gaffe of the campaign. NDP candidate tweets something about 'stupid farmers'.

[lilTommy]

Not sure if this would be called a gaffe, but this looks to have exposed a rather horrible SASK provincial policy; they can/will ship homeless people out of province (According to the SP government this is all OK as long as they have a plan? what?)

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/saskatchewan-buys-1-way-bus-tickets-to-b-c-for-homeless-men-1.3483429

[DL]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

[lilTommy]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

The NDP got 20 seats in 2007. This polling is the best the NDP has been polling since 2011, they haven't really broke 30% until February of this year... a 9 point increase since the new year.

Regional Breakdown:
Regina - NDP 44% SP 44% - vs 2011 - NDP 40% SP 55%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 53% - vs 2011 - NDP 37% SP 58%
Rest of SK - NDP - 33% SP 53%

Compare that to the 2007 Election in the two cities:
Regina - NDP 47% SP 35%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 42%

If you look at the NDP's so far released platform, they are definitely trying to tap into the success the Liberals had federally.

[DC Al Fine]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

I imagine we're seeing the equivalent to the Chretien era custom of massive leads tightening during election campaigns. We'll have to see if its starts tightening into a truly close race.

[DC Al Fine]

If you look at the NDP's so far released platform, they are definitely trying to tap into the success the Liberals had federally.

Could you give some examples?

[lilTommy]

Sure, some almost copies:
- Basic Income pilot project
- Raising taxes on the wealthy ($175K and above) while the basic personal tax exemption would be increased by $500
- carbon pricing
- Focusing on Renewable's; Restoring climate change and environmental assessment and protection programs (fed LPC made them tighter I believe)
... very NDP stuff like anti-privatization, some populist "cut waste" stuff (mostly focused on luxury travel, procurement process's etc)

that's all I can see for now...
 

[136or142]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

The NDP got 20 seats in 2007. This polling is the best the NDP has been polling since 2011, they haven't really broke 30% until February of this year... a 9 point increase since the new year.

Regional Breakdown:
Regina - NDP 44% SP 44% - vs 2011 - NDP 40% SP 55%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 53% - vs 2011 - NDP 37% SP 58%
Rest of SK - NDP - 33% SP 53%

Compare that to the 2007 Election in the two cities:
Regina - NDP 47% SP 35%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 42%

If you look at the NDP's so far released platform, they are definitely trying to tap into the success the Liberals had federally.

I wrote about the similarity between the recent poll results and the 2007 election above. Does everybody have me on ignore?

[136or142]

First gaffe of the campaign. NDP candidate tweets something about 'stupid farmers'.

The NDP candidate, Clayton Wilson, actually tweeted 'SOME stupid farmers' not 'stupid farmers.'  I think that is a major distinction as it shows that in no way was Wilson implying that ALL farmers (or even many farmers) are stupid.

This 'gaffe' is really nothing more than an example of sensationalistic, dishonest journalism.  Shame that it comes from the CBC.  The CBC wins my 'dick of the day' award for this.

[lilTommy]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

The NDP got 20 seats in 2007. This polling is the best the NDP has been polling since 2011, they haven't really broke 30% until February of this year... a 9 point increase since the new year.

Regional Breakdown:
Regina - NDP 44% SP 44% - vs 2011 - NDP 40% SP 55%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 53% - vs 2011 - NDP 37% SP 58%
Rest of SK - NDP - 33% SP 53%

Compare that to the 2007 Election in the two cities:
Regina - NDP 47% SP 35%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 42%

If you look at the NDP's so far released platform, they are definitely trying to tap into the success the Liberals had federally.

I wrote about the similarity between the recent poll results and the 2007 election above. Does everybody have me on ignore?

HA, No... my only excuse is your post was 2 weeks ago and this is a new poll?

BUT comparing the two now, looks like the Liberal vote in both Regina and Saskatoon is what is helping to shift the votes but for two different parties?
Regina - NDP to 44% from 37%, Liberals down from 9% to 6% (green vote also dropped from 9% to 6% as well)
BUT in Saskatoon the SP increased from 45% to 53% while the Liberals dropped from 9% to 3%

[136or142]

Latest poll by Mainstreet shows a major narrowing of the gap

SP - 51% (down four from last week)
NDP - 37% (up four from last week)
Libs - 8%
Greens - 3%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gains-sk-party-still-wide-lead/

NB: This popular vote split would take us right back to 2007 when the NDP took 18 seats

The NDP got 20 seats in 2007. This polling is the best the NDP has been polling since 2011, they haven't really broke 30% until February of this year... a 9 point increase since the new year.

Regional Breakdown:
Regina - NDP 44% SP 44% - vs 2011 - NDP 40% SP 55%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 53% - vs 2011 - NDP 37% SP 58%
Rest of SK - NDP - 33% SP 53%

Compare that to the 2007 Election in the two cities:
Regina - NDP 47% SP 35%
Saskatoon - NDP 41% SP 42%

If you look at the NDP's so far released platform, they are definitely trying to tap into the success the Liberals had federally.

I wrote about the similarity between the recent poll results and the 2007 election above. Does everybody have me on ignore?

HA, No... my only excuse is your post was 2 weeks ago and this is a new poll?

BUT comparing the two now, looks like the Liberal vote in both Regina and Saskatoon is what is helping to shift the votes but for two different parties?
Regina - NDP to 44% from 37%, Liberals down from 9% to 6% (green vote also dropped from 9% to 6% as well)
BUT in Saskatoon the SP increased from 45% to 53% while the Liberals dropped from 9% to 3%

Ah, thanks.  I wouldn't read too much into the breakdowns in Saskatoon or Regina.  The overall MOE for the poll is 2.6%, so, I think that's roughly 1,000 voters.  So, the total polled in Saskatoon and Regina are probably around 250 people each.

Also, as I pointed out in my previous post, the 2007 election result in Regina is skewed because a Sask Party candidate dropped out of the race and his named was removed from the ballot.  In the 2011 election in that riding I believe I wrote the Sask Party candidate got close to 60% of the vote there.  So, that probably caused the NDP to increase their vote total in Regina by maybe 1-2% overall and to drop the Sask Party by maybe 2-3%.