Saskatchewan provincial election 2015/2016 (more likely in 2016)

[Smid]

Blank map of the new boundaries, sorry it's taken so long to put together, living life and all that sort of thing:

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: 60/31.

[136or142]

Saskatchewan Liberal Candidates - 2016 Provincial Election

Saskatoon and suburbs
1Saskatoon-Westview, Naveed Anwar, Tax Consultant and Firm Owner, Former Saskatoon Open Door Society Director, B.Sc-Statistics, Math and Business, B.Sc-Economics,  2011 NDP Nominee, speaks five languages

2.Saskatoon Centre, Roman Todos,56, Private Security Guard, Former M.P Morris Bodnar Constituency Assistant 1994-1997, B.A-Sociology, Minor-Religious Studies, soccer manager and coach, former President and Director Saskatoon District Soccer Association

3.Saskatoon-Riversdale, Robert Rudachyk,48, Hallcon Crew Transport Regional Manager for Saskatchewan and former occupational health and safety coordinator,  former Community Association President, B.Sc-Biology, beekeeper, wood and amber carver, hunter and fisher

4.Saskatoon-Nutana, Robin Schneider, University of Saskatchewan Health Sciences Department Technician, Diploma-Cytotechnology (an area of medical diagnostics)

5.Saskatoon-Fairview, Shah Rukh, Owner SSG Safe Security Services (private security and detective services firm), former retail clothing store manager, B.Sc-Aeronautical Engineering

6.Saskatoon-Eastview, Ana Ashraf, Courier Company Owner, B.Sc-Nursing, scout leader

7.Saskatoon Southeast, Pradipta Das, Engineering Construction Consulting Firm Owner (Zest Enterprises Ltd) Former Alberta oilsands firm project manager and project lead financial controller, M.Sc-Project Management, M.B.A-Finance

8.Saskatoon-Meewasin, Constance Sacher, School Counselor and Former High School Humanities Teacher, former Educational Instructor,   B-Education (English and Special Education), M-Education (Educational Psychology)

9.Saskatoon-Silverspring-Sutherland, James Gorin, Canadian Light Source (non profit division of the University of Saskatchewan) Science Associate (Scientific Station Designer),  B.Sc-Engineering Physics, M.Sc-Physics

10.Saskatoon-Churchill-Wildwood, Chris Chovin, Combine World In Marketing Manager Optimization Analyst, former Saskatchewan Ministry of Economy Investment Attraction Unit Junior Market Researcher, B-Commerce (Recent Graduate), former Instrumentation Engineering Technology Student, cyclist, camper, hiker and canoeist

11.Saskatoon-University, Ezaz Jaseem, Small Business Owner, B.Sc-Agriculture (Hons)

12.Saskatoon-Willowgrove, Jason Gorin, Retail Business Department Manager

13.Saskatoon Northwest, Eric Steiner, Shaw Communications Television Producer, Director, Videographer and Editor, Video Production, Website Development and Graphic Design Firm Owner (Red Block Media), Diploma-Media Arts, 2011 Nominee

14.Saskatoon-Stonebridge-Dakota, Kevin Ber, Owner Martensville Corner Store and Saskatchewan Liquor Vendors Association Director

15.Martenville-Warman, Michael McAteer, I.T Technical Communication and Information Architect, Retired Bank Senior Financial Planner, B.A-East Asian Studies

Regina
1.Regina Rosemont, Reid Hill, Regina Honda Sales and Leasing Consultant, former Canadian Forces Reservist, B.A-History, Curler and Rotarian

2.Regina-Elphinstone-Centre, Patrick Denis, Non Profit Animal Rescue Group Human Resources Manager (Waggy Tails)

3.Regina-Pasqua, Darrin Lamoureux,49, Party Leader 2012-, Former Construction Company Owner, B.A-Economics, Brother of M.P Kevin Lamoureux

4.Regina-Douglas Park, Curt Schroeder, Computer Science and Environmental Science Instructor, Former wild animal park manager and former Executive Director Nature Saskatchewan, B.Sc-Zoology, PhD-Wildlife Conservation, Diploma-Eco Tourism, Diploma-Computer Science and New Media

5.Regina-Coronation Park, Tara Jijian, Single Parent, Husband killed in car accident

6.Regina-Rochdale, Nadeem Islam, Sutton Group Realtor, Former civil engineer and consultant, Pakistan Canadian Cultural Association of Regina Director, B.Sc-Civil Engineering

7.Regina-Gardiner Park, Jesse Albanez, Mortgage Professional, former Wascana Rehabilitation Centre Manager Unit 2-6

8.Regina-Lakeview, Stewart Kerr, Saskatchewan Ministry of Social Services Accounts Receivable Unit Employee, Former Regina Housing Authority Assistant Contract Administrator,  B.A-History (Hons) (recent graduate)., President University of Regina Young Liberals, Certificate-Wildnerness Leadership, Royal Regina Rifles Reservist

9.Regina-University, Silvia Volodka, Self Employed Immigrant Settlement Adviser, former secondary school teacher, President Multinational Association of Russian Speaking Residents of Regina, Russian Sunday School Director

10.Regina-Northeast, Hafeez Chuadhuri, Retail Furniture Business Sales Consultant and Furniture Store Startup Owner, former immigration consultant, B.Sc-,  Law Degree, 2011 Provincial NDP Candidate for nomination, 2011 Provincial Independent Candidate, 2015 Federal Conservative Party Candidate for nomination

11.Regina-Walsh Acres, Reina Sinclair, Silver Sage Housing Corporation Community Manager and ISC Customer Support Technician , President Aboriginal Peoples Commission of Saskatchewan,  former Communications and Business Administration Student, 1993 Federal Liberal Nominee and 1999 Provincial Nominee

12.Regina-Wascana Plains, Gulraiz Tariq, Skyways Trucking Accounting Director (Family Business), Enactus Regina Vice President of Development (non profit student organization), Business Administration Student, 1A Drivers License, Former Royal Canadian Air Cadets Sargeant,  Glider Pilot

Smaller Cities
1.Moose Jaw North, Brenda Colenutt,58, Compass Group of Companies Mosaic Place Concourse Head Supervisor,  Wakamow Aboriginal Community Association Director, 2012 City Council Candidate

2.Moose Jaw Wakamow, Terry Gabel, Former Warehouse and Product Manager and former freelance writer and editor, Moose Jaw Public Library Board Chair and Municipal Planning Commission Board of Revision Chair, B.A-English, 2012 City Council Candidate

3.Prince Albert-Carleton, Winston McKay,73, Former Natural Resources Worker and Former President Metis Addictions Council of Saskatchewan, former school trustee and mayor of Cumberland House in the 1970s

4.Prince Albert-Northcote, Jonathan Fraser,22, Retail Store Associate

5.Swift Current, Glenn Smith

6.Yorkton, Aaron C. Sinclair, Sakimay First Nation Councillor, Studied Telecommunications, Business Administration and Aboriginal Justice

7.The Battlefords, Dexter Gopher,26, Whiterock Gas and Confectionary Business Manager (Family Business), former foreman BTO Contracting and Harbors and former heavy equipment operator, Certificate-4th Class Power Engineer, Wrestler (Regional Gold Medal Winner), mother ran for NDP in Cut Knife-Turtleford in 2011

[136or142]

Small Cities/Rural
1.Estevan, Oscar Karkabatov, Parachute Candidate - lives in Regina

2.Lloydminster, Dolores Pahtayken, Former Saskatchewan Corrections Public Safety and Policing Youth Care Facility Worker, Studied Education and Business Administration, Onion Lake Cree Nation Councillor 2010-, minor ball player, hunter and fisher

3.Weyburn-Big Muddy, Dylan Hart

North
1.Athabasca, Michael Wolverine, Businessperson

2.Cumberland, George Morin, Semi Retired, former Human Resource Management Economic and Community Development Civil Servant, Former Saskatchewan Public Service Commission Human Resource Management Consultant, former trapper, fisher and hunter, Studied Education and Administration, 2011 Federal Green Party Nominee

Rural North
1.Saskatchewan Rivers, Brenda McKnight, Singer Songwriter and Musical Instruments Player, Former Self Employed Bookkeeper and Accountant

2.Batoche, Graham Tweeten, Nissan Dealership Operations Manager, Certificate-Parts Management Technician

3.Meadow Lake, Eric McCrimmon,20, Math Tutor, Commerce Student, soccer player and bagpipe player

4.Rosthern-Shellbroook, Orrin Greyeyes, Security, Safety, Construction and Consulting Businesses Owner (at different times), Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Urban Councillor 2009-2015, 2010 and 2015 FSIN Vice Chief Candidate (ran for this position in the 1990s as well), Former RCMP Special Constable Program Student

5.Cut Knife-Turtleford, Rod Gopher, General Manager Carlton Housing, Former Provincial Government Aboriginal Economic Development Senior Policy Analyst, Salteaux First Nation Band Councillor, Diploma-Business Management

6.Melfort, Bruce Ber, Martensville Corner Store Manager, former oilfield worker, brother of  Kevin Ber, Parachute Candidate-lives in Saskatoon

7.Carrot River Valley, Karalasingham Sadadcharam, CPA and Senior Financial Controller Canadian Business Resources Group, Parachute Candidate-lives in Saskatoon

East Central (former known as 'Red Square')
1.Melville-Saltcoats, Igor Riabchyk, Century 21 Realtor, Former civil servant immigration division of Ministry of Advanced Education, Employment and Immigration, former professor and university marketing department chair in Ukraine, B.A-Economics and Management, PhD-Marketing, Parachute Candidate-lives in Regina

2.Canora-Pelly, Kyle Budz, High School Physical Education and Science and Biology Teacher,  B-Education and Exercise Science, M.A-Sport and Athletic Administration, Certified Coach, hiker

3.Last Mountain-Touchwood, David Buchocik, Sask Power Employee

4.Humboldt-Watrous, Robert Tutka, Truck Driver

5.Kelvington-Wadena, Bernie Yuzdepski, Retired Curling Club Manager, Studied Elementary Education and Teaching, 1978 Canadian Mixed Team Curling Champion, 1986, 1999, 2005 and 2007 Provincial Liberal Candidate in different ridings, Parachute Candidate-Lives in Saskatoon

South West and Central West
1.Kindersley, Darren Donald, Retail Employee

2.Rosetown-Elrose, Adrian Janssens, Rosetown Airport Seasonal Employee - Refueling and Mixing Chemicals,  former Heartland Health Region Communications Coordinator and former broadcaster, former employment training facilitator, music composition and drama student

3.Cypress Hills, Charles Tait

4.Arm River, Russ Collicott, Construction Manager and former Fort McMurray (Alberta) Construction Association President, 2011 Federal Liberal Candidate (Palliser), 2004 Alberta Provincial Liberal Candidate, 

5.Lumsden-Morse, Gerry Hiebert, Retired New Westminster and Lower Mainland B.C, Multi Hospital System CEO, B-Commerce, former Palliser Liberal Constituency Association President

6.Wood River, Edward Ives, EVRAZ (Formerly IPSCO) Steelworker, Parachute Candidate-Lives in Regina

7.Biggar-Sask Valley, Faiza Kanwal

South East
1.Indian Head-Milestone, David Delainey, Electrician (recently completed apprenticeship)

2.Moosomin, Janice Palmer, Health Care Information Manager

3.Cannington, Patrick Dennie, Project Management Executive and Consulting Firm Owner, Canadian Forces Veteran, Certificate-Engineering and Design, Parachute Candidate-Lives in Regina

[136or142]

Proposed Liberal Cabinet
1.Premier, Federal-Provincial Relations, Justice and Public Safety, Darrin Lamoureux
2.Finance, Naveed Anwar
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shah Rukh
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Brenda Colenutt
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Status of Women, Silvia Volodka
6.Natural Resources, Orrin Greyeyes
7.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Northern Affairs, Michael Wolverine
8.Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Kyle Budz
9.Environment and Climate Change, James Gorin
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Pradipta Das
11.Government Services and Public Works, Janice Palmer
12.Human Resources and Housing, Jesse Albanez
13.Children and Family Development, Reina Sinclair
14.Education, Constance Sacher
15.Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Curt Schroeder
16.Health, Gerry Hiebert
17.Municipal Affairs, Roman Todos
18.Aboriginal Relations, Rod Gopher

[lilTommy]

If the Polls are true come tmr; the SaskPartys is going to win big again, the NDP depending on where the votes are concentrated, could get about 12-15, on the higher side if the votes work out well for the NDP in Regina where they are polling about 2011, but the SaskP is polling worse (about 5 points lower).

The higher Liberal vote in Regina looks to be pulled more from the SP; in Saskatoon it's about even. I wonder if those polled who said Liberal will still vote Liberal?
I'm wondering if the NDPs "rural vote" is concentrated more in the 4 small city ridings in Prince Albert and Moose Jaw, which could be enough to take them, since they have almost no shot anywhere else in Rural Sask.

NDP targets/potential pickups:

Prince Albert Northcote
Regina Coronation Park
Regina Douglas Park
Saskatoon fairview
Saskatoon Meewasin
 - That would be 15 seats (if we assume they hold the 10 they hold under the new map)

IF the NDP performs better then they are polling (closer to 40%) (seats close to 40% with transposition using the 2011 number http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2016/03/saskatchewans-new-electoral-map.html )

Regaina Pasqua
Regina University
Regina Walch Acres
Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood
Saskatoon Eastview
 - That's 20, around 2007 results

Anything more would be an unexpected win for the NDP I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

My prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/04/swingometer-based-prediction-of.html

[RogueBeaver]

CBC results page.

FWIW, last Forum had 61/30.

[Hatman 🍁]

Remarkable how similar the polls have been

[136or142]

Remarkable how similar the polls have been

The handful of polls were remarkably similarly wrong in 1999, so let's hope history repeats itself.

[Hatman 🍁]

Watching CTV for obvious reasons

[trebor204]

Results:

http://results.elections.sk.ca/

[trebor204]

CTV - Saskatchewan Party Majority Gov't

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP doing a bit better than expected.

[trebor204]

8:34 CBC - Sask Party Majority Gov't

[Hatman 🍁]

lol CBC

[Boston Bread]

Any reason why Cam Broten is currently behind?

[Lotuslander]

Interesting stat:

The SK NDP is currently sitting at 29.3% popular vote share. Why is that significant? Last time the SK CCF/NDP received under 30% of the popular vote share in SK was wayyyyyy back 1938 - 78 years ago - and the CCF's first general election.

[RogueBeaver]

Wall delivering his victory speech. I suspect Broten ekes it out.

[136or142]

I understand Donald Trump is devastated with the result as he was hoping Brad Wall would lose and then Trump would put him between the U.S border and Mexico and get Mexico to pay for it.

[MaxQue]

Wall delivering his victory speech. I suspect Broten ekes it out.

No, he loses by 232 votes in the end, if I understand Elections Saskatchewan website.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another bad result, though not surprising given that voters tend to punish excessively unprofessional campaigns. Silver lining though: the northern Prince Albert seat gained.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting stat:

The SK NDP is currently sitting at 29.3% popular vote share. Why is that significant? Last time the SK CCF/NDP received under 30% of the popular vote share in SK was wayyyyyy back 1938 - 78 years ago - and the CCF's first general election.

Currently at 30.4%. And the Greens are on... wait... wait... 1.8%

[Hatman 🍁]

Net change of 0 seats with a grant total swing of wait for it... 0.00% (0.004% to the NDP to be exact).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How about running a campaign that isn't patently amateur hour next time, hmm...? Working on a couple of maps.