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  CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
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Author Topic: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else  (Read 3919 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: February 18, 2015, 06:05:40 am »

Quinnipiac polls CO, IA, and VA:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2149

Colorado

Clinton 43%
Paul 41%

Clinton 43%
Christie 34%

Clinton 44%
Bush 36%

Clinton 42%
Walker 40%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 39%

Iowa

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 38%

Clinton 45%
Paul 37%

Clinton 44%
Christie 34%

Clinton 45%
Bush 35%

Clinton 45%
Walker 35%

Virginia

Bush 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 44%
Paul 42%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 44%
Christie 39%

Clinton 45%
Walker 40%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2015, 06:17:46 am »

I expected Clinton to be weaker in Iowa and stronger in Virginia.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2015, 07:42:22 am »

I won't bother to list everyone's favorability in all three states, but, to give an indication of the relative name recognition of the various candidates, here's the %age of respondents in CO/IA/VA who answered "haven't heard enough about [him/her]" when asked their opinion of the person in question:

Clinton 4 / 9 / 5
Christie 25 / 32 / 23
Bush 27 / 37 / 26
Paul 33 / 39 / 35
Huckabee 31 / 31 / 26
Walker 54 / 55 / 57
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2015, 08:05:15 am »

Hillary has rather weak favorable ratings in all 3 states and she only leads Walker by 2 points in CO and 5 points in VA, despite Walker only having 40% name recognition in these states.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2015, 08:18:31 am »
« Edited: February 18, 2015, 08:20:09 am by OC »



Clinton 263
Jeb 206

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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2015, 08:30:21 am »

Judging Quinniipac record in Colorado this is a great poll for her. Virginia seems like an outlier, should do better there but the state also has a lot of white southerners. Seems like it's the white voters in the non-south she runs ahead of Obama with much more than VA NC etc.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2015, 02:04:02 pm »

This poll seems to defy the CW in both ways: most people probably would've expected Hillary to be doing worse in IA/CO but better in VA.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2015, 02:10:38 pm »

Hillary has rather weak favorable ratings in all 3 states and she only leads Walker by 2 points in CO and 5 points in VA, despite Walker only having 40% name recognition in these states.

The problem with this argument is that it's not as if a bunch of Republicans are saying they support Hillary or are undecided. Despite half of Republicans not knowing who Walker is, he still wins them 88-2 in CO. Hillary leads among Dems 91-2, so essentially the same. The place where there's a lot of undecideds are independents.
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2015, 02:11:12 pm »

I expected Clinton to be weaker in Iowa and stronger in Virginia.

I'm also surprised at how well she's doing in Colorado.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2015, 02:35:32 pm »

But... MUH SOLID D VIRGINIA
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retromike22
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2015, 03:08:26 pm »

I expected Clinton to be weaker in Iowa and stronger in Virginia.
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King
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« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2015, 03:32:43 pm »

I don't think the GOP nominee can win without Colorado.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2015, 03:39:27 pm »
« Edited: February 18, 2015, 03:42:22 pm by SMilo »

I don't think the GOP nominee can win without Colorado.

I know Hillary's weak there, but unless it's Paul (or according to this Walker), I don't expect it to be particularly viable in a Presidential year. We got very lucky in the midterms just to eek it out. I'm much more confident in Iowa and Virginia at the end of the day (and only one of those may be necessary).

Christie could possibly win it to but it'd require some serious rehabilitation of his image. Especially there with shaking off any remnants of a crusader against drug crimes or about treating the state "not well".
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2015, 03:59:37 pm »

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But #muhdynasties will hurt Hillary just as much as it hurts Jeb!
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henster
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« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2015, 04:18:47 pm »

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But #muhdynasties will hurt Hillary just as much as it hurts Jeb!

If Walker is the nominee the dynasty thing will be used against her instead of being canceled out by Jeb.
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King
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« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2015, 04:21:44 pm »
« Edited: February 18, 2015, 04:23:30 pm by Monarch »

I don't think the GOP nominee can win without Colorado.

It's not that he CAN'T win without it but it will be a good bellwether.

No, I think it's pretty much can't.



This is D272-R266.

In order to win, they'd have to pick up Colorado or either a Kerry state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Walker might be able to do it, but I think Colorado would be the better shot.

But running the table in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Iowa is difficult enough as is.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2015, 04:24:46 pm »

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But #muhdynasties will hurt Hillary just as much as it hurts Jeb!

If Walker is the nominee the dynasty thing will be used against her instead of being canceled out by Jeb.

It wouldn't be "cancelled out", because as the poll shows, it isn't a problem to begin with for Hillary. If Jeb is the nominee it will hurt him, if Jeb is not the nominee it will be irrelevant.
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: February 18, 2015, 06:31:08 pm »

Not sold on Hillary having Virginia troubles based off one poll. And the GOP can't afford to let her do better than Obama with ANY demographic. The math doesn't add up when you begin 3.85 points down and have 4 years of demographic change to counter.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: February 18, 2015, 08:58:01 pm »
« Edited: February 18, 2015, 09:04:03 pm by pbrower2a »

Best case based on current polling for Bush and Walker (Christie, Paul, and Huckabee -- you don't want to see it if you are one of their supporters):



Hillary Clinton red plus green -- against Jeb Bush blue plus yellow

Hillary Clinton red plus yellow -- against  Scott Walker blue plus green
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #19 on: February 18, 2015, 09:57:08 pm »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2015, 08:45:32 am »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2015, 09:02:18 am »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

But what about mega coattails?

This is a new phenomenon that is being floated around by experts.

We all know what coatails are. For example, Obama coattails in Connecticut might propel Murphy to victory. Or Romney coattails in North Dakota might propel Berg to victory.

But how about mega coattails? The theory is that there is a such a huge margin in a state that it actually leaks over into neighboring states

For example, Romney is going to win Utah by so much that it harms Obama in Nevada and Colorado.

They say mega coattails from Illinois is what gave Obama Indiana in 2008.

Should Obama campaign in Salt Lake City? Obviously he won't win the state but if he can get the margin down in Utah, there will just be coattails in Utah and not mega coattails
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2015, 09:13:18 am »

Colorado is crucial for Republicans.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2015, 12:38:06 pm »

This map shows a projection based upon polls in eleven states (shown in another thread), seven of them capable of deciding the flavor of the 2016 election.

This thread is likely to go dormant and irrelevant soon enough. There is a thread on polling, and it effectively shows nothing from before Election 2014. 

Based on current polls (and the states are representative enough), behavior of other states between 2000 and 2012 (I have nothing on the 'inner arc' of states from Louisiana to West Virginia that all went to Bill Clinton  in the 1990s, drifted R in 2000 and 2004, and utterly rejected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012)... the Republicans get everything that they won in 2012.

OK, so should California go R in 2016 (which is about as likely as a blizzard in San Diego in July) the map would change -- big.   
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2015, 01:30:49 pm »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

I think Iowa is still in play. One of the reasons why it is in play and may be trending Republican is because of its demographics and not the fact that Walker is from WI. The problem the GOP faces in Iowa right now can be summarized quite easily: White women. Hillary is winning them by a bigger margin right now than Obama did (no, OF COURSE not because of sexism or racism! lol). However, even though all her supporters are already united behind her and have made up their mind, she is still not polling above 45%. I don't know why everyone thinks that those polls are good for her (especially in Colorado).

This would require Iowans to completely shift voting habits and patterns, and fast. Iowa is over 90% white. It was also over 90% white when it voted at--or one point to the left--of the national average in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. And when Iowa voted significantly to the left of the country in 1984 and 1988.

The result of Iowa shouldn't be a surprise to anybody on election night. Despite all of the campaign money that gets pissed away in Iowa, that state's voting pattern--for the last six general election cycles--has been remarkably stable.
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