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  CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else
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Author Topic: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else  (Read 3910 times)
Landslide Andy
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« Reply #25 on: February 19, 2015, 04:06:05 pm »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

Aside from Walker being from Wisconsin, there's also the fact that a) the state is overwhelmingly white. If the double down on whites strategy has any impact, Iowa would be ground zero for that. b) the fact that they elected Joni Ernst, and by quite a substantial margin. Granted, it was a midterm wave so turnout probably had a big impact there, but the fact that she won so comfortably gives me pause.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: February 19, 2015, 08:05:48 pm »

Iowa -- about D+1 in Presidential elections since the 1990s. It was the tipping-point state in 2008.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #27 on: February 19, 2015, 08:07:08 pm »

Jeb Bush is horrid in Colorado.
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Devils30
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« Reply #28 on: February 19, 2015, 08:24:28 pm »

Jeb is also a terrible fit for Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin. All of which soured on W and have somewhat revived economically as of late. Seems like all of Hillary's white improvement would be in the northeast and Midwest.
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Devils30
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« Reply #29 on: February 19, 2015, 10:26:21 pm »

If Jeb is losing WI, IA like that he is probably losing OH as well. There is no path without Ohio for the GOP. And I'm skeptical about Nevada going red, the demographics are just very tough for the GOP and not getting better. Sandoval wins because hes personally popular, not because his party. Virginia is becoming Pennsylvania like for the GOP, don't count on Clinton being held to 50% in the DC suburbs with higher turnout. FL of course is a must win for Jeb or anyone in the GOP and Jeb only ties with his home state edge.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #30 on: February 20, 2015, 07:43:56 am »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

Aside from Walker being from Wisconsin, there's also the fact that a) the state is overwhelmingly white. If the double down on whites strategy has any impact, Iowa would be ground zero for that. b) the fact that they elected Joni Ernst, and by quite a substantial margin. Granted, it was a midterm wave so turnout probably had a big impact there, but the fact that she won so comfortably gives me pause.

Republicans have been pandering to whites for decades, and Iowa is still voting at the national average, or one point to the left, in Presidential elections.

While Joni Ernst ran a pitch-perfect campaign, and Republicans did extremely well in the 2014 midterms, let us not forget that Bruce Braley proved to the world that he is a total jackass.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #31 on: February 20, 2015, 11:50:03 am »

We all get it. VA is solid D, IA always votes D and Hillary will win because of #muhDemographics and #muhTurnout. Done deal. Inevitable.

In Va and WI, especially, blacks will be motivated to vote against Walker, due to the backlash of the Voter ID Law, that he tried to get through in WI, and luckily SCOTUS and the Kennedy CRT struck it down. 

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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #32 on: February 20, 2015, 02:58:04 pm »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

Aside from Walker being from Wisconsin, there's also the fact that a) the state is overwhelmingly white. If the double down on whites strategy has any impact, Iowa would be ground zero for that. b) the fact that they elected Joni Ernst, and by quite a substantial margin. Granted, it was a midterm wave so turnout probably had a big impact there, but the fact that she won so comfortably gives me pause.

Republicans have been pandering to whites for decades, and Iowa is still voting at the national average, or one point to the left, in Presidential elections.

While Joni Ernst ran a pitch-perfect campaign, and Republicans did extremely well in the 2014 midterms, let us not forget that Bruce Braley proved to the world that he is a total jackass.

I wouldn't really say Ernst ran a perfect campaign. She made a bunch of wacky comments and gaffes, they just never stuck. But yeah, Braley being horrendous likely had a big impact as well.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #33 on: February 20, 2015, 03:34:16 pm »

We all get it. VA is solid D, IA always votes D and Hillary will win because of #muhDemographics and #muhTurnout. Done deal. Inevitable.

I don't have anything to back up the idea that Iowa will be competitive--or anything but even/D+1--so I will resort to sarcasm.

#analysis #hotpoliticaltake #smackoff
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2015, 04:21:04 pm »



Clinton 263
Jeb 206
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: February 20, 2015, 11:47:54 pm »


Not that anyone could confuse Colorado and Nevada -- the states typically vote alike. If Jeb Bush loses Colorado he also loses Nevada. If he loses Colorado badly enough... Arizona could be (irony intended) "icing" on a Hillary Clinton landslide or near-landslide.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2015, 09:16:46 am »

We all get it. VA is solid D, IA always votes D and Hillary will win because of #muhDemographics and #muhTurnout. Done deal. Inevitable.

Virginia was reliably R except in Democratic blowouts  (well, there was only one -- in 1964) between the Truman win of 1948 and the two wins by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The status of Virginia as a D-leaning state is shaky -- something like the status of West Virginia as an R-leaning state in 2000.  Many were surprised with Virginia showing leads for Barack Obama in 2008 just as many were astonished to see West Virginia (the state went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988) go for Dubya in 2000.

Virginia is NOT solid D in Presidential elections as is Maryland. But if Republicans are to win without Virginia they will have to cut into the so-called Blue (Atlas red) Firewall of states that have not voted for any Republican nominee for President since at least 1988.

If Iowa isn't going for the Republican nominee, then neither is Wisconsin, Minnesota, nor Michigan. Those four states comprise 42 electoral votes -- which is bigger than Texas in electoral votes. Nothing indicates that Pennsylvania or New Hampshire is in play. But Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio are in play for Democrats.

Jeb Bush might have been a better President than his brother -- but that isn't saying much.      
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