CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac polls CO, IA, and VA:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2149

Colorado

Clinton 43%
Paul 41%

Clinton 43%
Christie 34%

Clinton 44%
Bush 36%

Clinton 42%
Walker 40%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 39%

Iowa

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 38%

Clinton 45%
Paul 37%

Clinton 44%
Christie 34%

Clinton 45%
Bush 35%

Clinton 45%
Walker 35%

Virginia

Bush 42%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 44%
Paul 42%

Clinton 44%
Huckabee 41%

Clinton 44%
Christie 39%

Clinton 45%
Walker 40%

[Mr. Morden]

I won't bother to list everyone's favorability in all three states, but, to give an indication of the relative name recognition of the various candidates, here's the %age of respondents in CO/IA/VA who answered "haven't heard enough about [him/her]" when asked their opinion of the person in question:

Clinton 4 / 9 / 5
Christie 25 / 32 / 23
Bush 27 / 37 / 26
Paul 33 / 39 / 35
Huckabee 31 / 31 / 26
Walker 54 / 55 / 57

[Mr. Morden]

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

But what about mega coattails?

This is a new phenomenon that is being floated around by experts.

We all know what coatails are. For example, Obama coattails in Connecticut might propel Murphy to victory. Or Romney coattails in North Dakota might propel Berg to victory.

But how about mega coattails? The theory is that there is a such a huge margin in a state that it actually leaks over into neighboring states

For example, Romney is going to win Utah by so much that it harms Obama in Nevada and Colorado.

They say mega coattails from Illinois is what gave Obama Indiana in 2008.

Should Obama campaign in Salt Lake City? Obviously he won't win the state but if he can get the margin down in Utah, there will just be coattails in Utah and not mega coattails