CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else

[pbrower2a]

Best case based on current polling for Bush and Walker (Christie, Paul, and Huckabee -- you don't want to see it if you are one of their supporters):

Hillary Clinton red plus green -- against Jeb Bush blue plus yellow

Hillary Clinton red plus yellow -- against  Scott Walker blue plus green

[pbrower2a]

This map shows a projection based upon polls in eleven states (shown in another thread), seven of them capable of deciding the flavor of the 2016 election.

This thread is likely to go dormant and irrelevant soon enough. There is a thread on polling, and it effectively shows nothing from before Election 2014. 

Based on current polls (and the states are representative enough), behavior of other states between 2000 and 2012 (I have nothing on the 'inner arc' of states from Louisiana to West Virginia that all went to Bill Clinton  in the 1990s, drifted R in 2000 and 2004, and utterly rejected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012)... the Republicans get everything that they won in 2012.

OK, so should California go R in 2016 (which is about as likely as a blizzard in San Diego in July) the map would change -- big.   

[pbrower2a]

Iowa -- about D+1 in Presidential elections since the 1990s. It was the tipping-point state in 2008.

[pbrower2a]

Jeb Bush is horrid in Colorado.

Not that anyone could confuse Colorado and Nevada -- the states typically vote alike. If Jeb Bush loses Colorado he also loses Nevada. If he loses Colorado badly enough... Arizona could be (irony intended) "icing" on a Hillary Clinton landslide or near-landslide.

[pbrower2a]

We all get it. VA is solid D, IA always votes D and Hillary will win because of #muhDemographics and #muhTurnout. Done deal. Inevitable.

Virginia was reliably R except in Democratic blowouts  (well, there was only one -- in 1964) between the Truman win of 1948 and the two wins by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The status of Virginia as a D-leaning state is shaky -- something like the status of West Virginia as an R-leaning state in 2000.  Many were surprised with Virginia showing leads for Barack Obama in 2008 just as many were astonished to see West Virginia (the state went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988) go for Dubya in 2000.

Virginia is NOT solid D in Presidential elections as is Maryland. But if Republicans are to win without Virginia they will have to cut into the so-called Blue (Atlas red) Firewall of states that have not voted for any Republican nominee for President since at least 1988.

If Iowa isn't going for the Republican nominee, then neither is Wisconsin, Minnesota, nor Michigan. Those four states comprise 42 electoral votes -- which is bigger than Texas in electoral votes. Nothing indicates that Pennsylvania or New Hampshire is in play. But Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio are in play for Democrats.

Jeb Bush might have been a better President than his brother -- but that isn't saying much.