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  CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else (search mode)
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Author Topic: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else  (Read 3921 times)
dmmidmi
dmwestmi
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« on: February 19, 2015, 08:45:32 am »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.
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dmmidmi
dmwestmi
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2015, 01:30:49 pm »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

I think Iowa is still in play. One of the reasons why it is in play and may be trending Republican is because of its demographics and not the fact that Walker is from WI. The problem the GOP faces in Iowa right now can be summarized quite easily: White women. Hillary is winning them by a bigger margin right now than Obama did (no, OF COURSE not because of sexism or racism! lol). However, even though all her supporters are already united behind her and have made up their mind, she is still not polling above 45%. I don't know why everyone thinks that those polls are good for her (especially in Colorado).

This would require Iowans to completely shift voting habits and patterns, and fast. Iowa is over 90% white. It was also over 90% white when it voted at--or one point to the left--of the national average in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. And when Iowa voted significantly to the left of the country in 1984 and 1988.

The result of Iowa shouldn't be a surprise to anybody on election night. Despite all of the campaign money that gets pissed away in Iowa, that state's voting pattern--for the last six general election cycles--has been remarkably stable.
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dmmidmi
dmwestmi
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2015, 07:43:56 am »

So much for all those maps showing Walker winning Iowa even in a Clinton victory scenario...

Those maps are based on some delusion that because Walker is from a neighboring state, that this gives him some sort of advantage in Iowa.

It doesn't. This argument is stupid, grounded nowhere in reality, and runs completely contrary to every past election result. Barack Obama was from a neighboring state, and performed one point better in Iowa than the national average--just like John Kerry before him, and Bill Clinton in 1996.

This "He's from Wisconsin, so he'll win Iowa!" line needs to die. Now.

Aside from Walker being from Wisconsin, there's also the fact that a) the state is overwhelmingly white. If the double down on whites strategy has any impact, Iowa would be ground zero for that. b) the fact that they elected Joni Ernst, and by quite a substantial margin. Granted, it was a midterm wave so turnout probably had a big impact there, but the fact that she won so comfortably gives me pause.

Republicans have been pandering to whites for decades, and Iowa is still voting at the national average, or one point to the left, in Presidential elections.

While Joni Ernst ran a pitch-perfect campaign, and Republicans did extremely well in the 2014 midterms, let us not forget that Bruce Braley proved to the world that he is a total jackass.
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dmmidmi
dmwestmi
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« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2015, 03:34:16 pm »

We all get it. VA is solid D, IA always votes D and Hillary will win because of #muhDemographics and #muhTurnout. Done deal. Inevitable.

I don't have anything to back up the idea that Iowa will be competitive--or anything but even/D+1--so I will resort to sarcasm.

#analysis #hotpoliticaltake #smackoff
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