Which state, as a percentage, would have the most walker'16, obama '12 voters?

[Matty]

Besides Wisconsin?

[Free Bird]

Ohio
Florida
Virginia come to mind

[IceSpear]

Florida
Virginia

Based on?

Aside from WI, the easy answers are IA (He's a Midwesterner, it neighbors Wisconsin, and the state may be tending R), CO (anti-Hillary), HI (home state bounce going away), and AK (Obama did really well there for some reason).

[retromike22]

Iowa possibly.

[dmmidmi]

For the last 30 years, Ohio has routinely voted ~1 point to the right of the country, and Iowa has voted ~1 point to the left of the country. Based on the national tally, the results in each state--on election night--shouldn't surprise anybody. Ohio isn't all of a sudden going to vote 4 points to the right of the national vote, because the GOP candidate is from Wisconsin. The same goes with Iowa.

Virginia reaching the national average is a recent phenomenon. Because it's difficult to tell whether this is temporary or permanent, that would have to be my choice.

[bobloblaw]

Colorado.


Clinton polls very poorly there.

[Mr. Illini]

Colorado, I would think.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hawaii

[James Monroe]

Ohio would be my guess. Boarding near Walker home state of Wisconsin, I think most center-right voters would feel comfortable with voting one of their own in, though it's possible that his anti-labor stance could hurt his chances with working class voters.

[TDAS04]

I guess Alaska.

[Mister Mets]

I'd expect a good percentage in Illinois.

Democrats won't have the favorite son advantage, and it's a place where a midwesterner can play well.

But Hawaii's the likeliest. Walker could lose by 25, and it'll mean about 17% of voters flipped from Obama to him. It was a small state proud of its presidential nominee, and those can swing wildly (see Arkansas.)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ohio would be my guess. Boarding near Walker home state of Wisconsin, I think most center-right voters would feel comfortable with voting one of their own in, though it's possible that his anti-labor stance could hurt his chances with working class voters.

lmao

[ElectionsGuy]

Illinois, Florida, Iowa, and other nearby Midwest states are good bets.

[MATTROSE94]

My best guess is that Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, Hawaii, Colorado, Alaska, Pennsylvania and New Mexico (only if Susana Martinez is Scott Walker's running mate) will have the highest percentage of Obama 2012/Walker 2016 voters.

On the other hand, I feel that Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Utah will have the highest percentage of Romney 2012/Clinton 2016 voters.

[Xing]

Iowa (good Obama state, pretty good state for Walker, too)

Hawaii (no way for the Republicans to go but up, not like it it'll matter, though)

Possibly Illinois, though Obama's home state bounce pretty much went away in 2012.

[Vega]

Hawaii

At most the Democratic nominee will go down a point or two. Hawaii is a lot more liberal than it was in 2004 or before that.

[Mister Mets]

Hawaii

At most the Democratic nominee will go down a point or two. Hawaii is a lot more liberal than it was in 2004 or before that.

Obama won Hawaii 70.55% to 27.84%. It seems possible that Democrats will go down there by more two points, although this is unlikely to make a difference.

[Devils30]

Hawaii or Vermont seems likely. Not Florida, its demographics don't lend itself to a big Walker surge. Illinois had a big GOP trend in 2012, seems like Obama lost the home state edge he had in 2008 there. Other possibilities include Maine Montana, the south is so inelastic it's not hard to see Virginia going blue even in a narrow GOP win.

[bobloblaw]

Colorado.


Hillary polls very poorly there