Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

NDA                102
Grand Alliance   66
Others                4

[jaichind]

NDA                104
Grand Alliance   71
Others                4

Grand Alliance coming back.  This might become neck-to-neck.

[jaichind]

NDA                110
Grand Alliance   81
Others                5

[ag]

where are these from? I see very different results.

[Sbane]

Yeah, it looks like a Grand alliance win. And rightly so, as Nitish Kumar has been a very competent CM. And the BJP ran a very backwards, nonsense Hindutva based campaign here. They had nothing to offer.

[jaichind]

Different TV channesl were using different sets of stringer services for info.  I think they have all converged by now.    I always use the NDTV one

Grand Alliance       157
NDA                        76
Others                    10

[jaichind]

Vote share so far seems to be

Grand Alliance             40.9%
NDA                            35.1%

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       178
NDA                        60
Others                      5


Vote share seems to be

Grand Alliance     41.8%
NDA                    34.3%   

[jaichind]

Outside the 2 alliances the only other winners seems to be independents and CPI(ML)(L)

[jaichind]

It seems earlier in the day when various TV channels had contradictory trends, the BJP thought they won and had order a massive amount of candies to distribute to celebrate.  NDTV even called the election for NDA.  Of course the celebrations at BJP headquarters went silent when the trend went against them and the candies unused.

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       177
NDA                        61
Others                      5


Vote share seems to be

Grand Alliance     41.9%
NDA                    34.2%   

Since NOTA has not been normalized out, one has to add about 1% to both numbers to get the true vote share.

[jaichind]

Looks like both CNN-IBN and NDTV goofed.  CNN-IBN actually commissioned an exit poll that had the right results but refused to show it since it did not believe the Grand Alliance landslide projections.  NDTV on vote count morning had used a news stringer service which had gave it a pro-NDA trends even as it was too early and projected a NDA victory which it later had to retract.  The NDTV projection seems especially foolish now given the landslide defeat of NDA.

[jaichind]

Vote share for Left Front (CPI-CPI(ML)-CPM-SUCI-RSP-FBL) is around 3.4%  Vote share for Third Front (SP-NCP-JKAM-SJP-SSP-NPP) is around 3.1%.  BSP is at around 2.0%.  Independents got 9.4% of the vote which is surprising to me.

[jaichind]

The winner of the election is Lalu Yadav, who was key to this stunning comeback.  RJD won more votes and seats than JD(U) even though it was considered to have a tougher set of seats to run in. 

[jaichind]

HAM most likely will only win 1 seats, that of Jitan Ram Manjhi.  Manjhi ran in two seats and won in one of them.  Rest of HAM bit the dust.

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN had planned to release an exit poll in its post election program.  It has commissioned  Axis APM to conduct this exit poll.  But when the results of this exit poll, the results were so out of line with every other exit poll CNN-IBN decided to not present it on its TV program.  The  Axis APM poll had

Grand Alliance 176 NDA 62 with the INC itself getting 27 seats out of the 40 it was contesting.   It also had Grand Alliance with 48% of the vote versus NDA 36%.   CNN-IBN asked for the raw data from Axis APM and was rejected.   This poll is the mirror image of the Today's Chanakya.

Axis APM now looks like genius.  

BTW, my projection

It seems that looking at all the firm that did a pre-poll survey AND an exit poll, the exit poll is always more pro-Grand Alliance that the pre-poll survey.  It seems to me that the momentum is on the side of the Grand Alliance and most likely most exit polls are underestimating such a momentum.    Today's Chanakya who was the most accurate in 2014 LS calls for a NDA landslide just like Axis APM who was the most accurate in the Delhi 2015 Assembly elections calls for a Grand Alliance landslide.  I will just consider both canceling each other out.  If I had to guess I will call for a signification Grand Alliance victory.  Something like

Grand Alliance     145       45%
NDA                      80       40%

Was pretty good and pretty much beat every other project other than Axis APM.  And even in vote share I managed to beat Axis APM.

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       177
NDA                        60
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

[jaichind]

It is interesting that the NDA vote share in Bihar will be around 35% which pretty much matches NDA vote share in 2014  Jharkhand Assembly when NDA (BJP+AJSU) won 35.5% of the vote and won a majority of seats.  The difference is the anti-NDA bloc managed to fuse in Bihar whereas in  Jharkhand the anti-NDA vote was split 3 ways between JMM, (JVM+AITC) and (INC+RJD+JD(U)).  Same for Haryana  2014 Assembly election where BJP won 33.3% of the vote and won a majority due to the split of the non-NDA vote between INC and (INLD+SAD).

[jaichind]

Looks like the NDA is settling into the 35% front.  It wins around 35% of the vote in places where it is relevant no matter what and weather it wins or loses is a function of how well the anti-NDA vote is consolidated.  Very similar to INC in the 1950s-1980s where it as the 42% party.

[jaichind]

SHS whose relationship with BJP has been spiraling downward in Maharashtra to the point where a break in the alliance most likely is coming soon could not contain is glee at these results.  SHS showered praise on the Grand Alliance and ecstatically celebrated the defeat of the NDA.  The idea here is that with BJP and Modi weakened then SHS can get even more aggressive with the BJP in Maharashtra to demand its pound of flesh.

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       177  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 26 INC)
NDA                        60  (53 BJP, 4 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       178  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 27 INC)
NDA                        59  (53 BJP, 3 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      6  (4 independents, 2 CPI(ML)(L))

[jaichind]

INC actually did very well as it will most likely win 27 out of 41 seats.  Most of the 41 seats it contesting it had to take on the NDA in areas with Upper Caste strength.  INC managed to win a lot of these seats with Upper Caste candidates which pulled in some Upper Caste votes plus OBC/Muslim consolidation against NDA.

[jaichind]

One of the reasons why CNN-IBN refused to air Axis APM exit poll was that  Axis APM projected INC to win 27 seats which CNN-IBN found to be totally impossible.  But INC is now on target to win exactly 27 seats as an egg in the face of CNN-IBN.

[jaichind]

Grand Alliance       178  (80 RJD, 71 JD(U), 27 INC)
NDA                        58  (53 BJP, 2 LJP 2 RLSP, 1 HAM)
Others                      7  (4 independents, 3 CPI(ML)(L))

Vote share seems to be

Grand Alliance     41.9%
NDA                    34.1%