Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015

[jaichind]

The Lalit Modi scandal gets funnier and funnier.  It seems the document that Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje signed vouching for Lalit Modi saying that his criminal convictions are all trumped up charges by the UPA regime and that he should get travel documents from the UK authorities to travel internationally.  The same document that she signed and now admits to signing also ask the UK authorities not under any circumstances let the Indian government know she signed such a document.  Why ? Because she knows it is treason to ask foreign government to help a know criminal and wanted fugitive of the Indian government.    it seems the real issue is that Lalit Modi had friends and enemies that cross party lines.  Lalit Modi had several enemies within the BJP as well.  So when the BJP came to power the anti-Lalit Modi gang loudly announced that Lalit Modi was a criminal and must be brought back to justice.  So now the BJP is trapped.  The only defense BJP has for Vasundhara Raje's actions is that Lalit Modi is a victim of UPA persecution but the same BJP regime also announced earlier that Lalit Modi is a criminal through and through.    It is said that Lalit Modi has enemies in INC but is friendly with NCP even as both parties are part of UPA.  The only hope for BJP has now is that more NCP politicians are named as also helping Lalit Modi illegally as to divert attention away from  Vasundhara Raje .

[jaichind]

In an attempt to deal a blow to JD(U) government's claims of development,  the central government BJP minister of power claimed that a) 98% of power used in Bihar are not produced in Bihar as the Bihar power industry is non-existent and 54% of the power shipped to Bihar are stolen and a result the power bill for the regular consumer is twice of what it should be.  The JD(U) Bihar minister of power of course rejects this.  What is interesting about the BJP's strategy of trying to debunk the JD(U) narrative of economic development is that the BJP was also beating their chest during the 2005-2013 JD(U)-BJP Bihar government era about the Bihar record of economic development. 

[jaichind]

As for the Left parties, it is clear that Maoist CPIML(L) will not join JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP.  CPI is leaning toward joining and CPM is leaning toward not joining.  CPI might decide in the end to run with a CPM-CPI-CPIML(L) leftist alliance to keep Leftist solidarity rather than go with  JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP.  In some pockets this decision will hurt JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP.  Ideally for JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP, both CPI and CPM will join. There is no way CPOML(L) will join.

[jaichind]

Pappu Yadav, Bihar MP and former member of RJD, will take his Jan Kranti Adhikar Party  into the NDA.  This will be another party the NDA has to accommodate for seat allocation in addition to LJP,  RLSP and HAM.

[jaichind]

Bihar legislative council elections today.  Various members of all sorts of local assemblies will vote for MLC today.  Counting of votes on 7/10.  This is first test of NDA (BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM) vs Grand anti-NDA front (JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP).  Nitish Kumar seems very confident and said that the BJP made this election a  'prestige issue' and the results will speak for itself.

[jaichind]

NDA wins Bihar Upper house elections.  NDA wins 13 out of 24 seats while JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP wins 10 out of 24 seat.  The last seat is won by a pro-RJD independent.    NDA increased its seats from 6 to 13.  

The pro-RJD independent that won, jailed gangster Ritlal Yadav


is at present lodged in the Beur Central Jail in connection with multiple criminal cases, including murder charges, defeated candidates of BJP and the RJD-backed JD(U) candidate.  Rital Yadav, who was appointed the general secretary of the RJD during the LS polls last year, had entered the poll fray as an independent after the party declined to field him from the Patna seat which had gone to the JD(U) quota under the seat-sharing formula.

This set of results shows that the RJD and JD(U) vote blocs are not jelling at the ground.  A warning sign to JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP ahead of assembly elections a couple of months from now.

[jaichind]

Despite the NDA victory in the Bihar Upper House elections, it is not all smooth sailing for NDA.  The ever growing Vyapam scam in MP is hurting the Modi/BJP brand and image.  Vyapam is the name of the MP Professional Examination Board which conducts test for admission to various professional courses and for recruitment to government jobs.  Its current structure was created by the BJP government in MP years ago.  There is a ever larger investigation of various instances of cheating and bribery involving  senior officials and businessmen in MP. What is worst ever since serious investigations started it dozes of suspects and witnesses have died under mysterious circumstances.  The BJP CM of MP is under greater pressure to resign and the BJP brand is taking a hit.  If this is not resolved soon this will hurt the NDA brand in urban Bihar middle class voters.   

[jaichind]

ABP News-Nielsen poll has

JD(U)-RJD-INC with a lead over BJP-LJP-RLSP 129 vs 112 seats.  Vote share has JD(U)-RJD-INC at 43% and BJP-LJP-RLSP at 32%.  This result is almost the same as a ABP News-Nielsen poll done back in May.  I find it hard to believe that if JD(U)-RJD-INC has a lead of 43%vs 32% the seat lead would be so small.  One of these two sets of leads is off.  Anyway the net implication of the poll is that JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP has a small advantage over NDA which has not changed the last couple of months.

[jaichind]

It seems that NDA will just not project a CM candidate and instead have Modi be the face of NDA in Bihar.  I guess the conflict that will ensue if NDA picked one of a dozen rivals for the spot could lead to significant rebellion in its ranks.  The downside of this is if NDA loses it would lead to another diminishing of the Modi brand much like the Delhi elections has done.

[jaichind]

Looks like Left parties will contest on their own and not join anti-NDA grand alliance.  It will be CPI CPM CPI(ML) AIFC SUC and RSP that will contest all 243 seats. 

[jaichind]

Zee News poll has

BJP-LJP-RLSP 45% with 105 seats and JD(U)-RJD-INC at 42% with 101 seats.

[jaichind]

JD(U) RJD and INC formally announce tomorrow alliance for Bihar elections.  JD(U) and RJD will contest 100 seats each and INC 40 seats.  Not clear who will contest the last 3 seats.  Most likely NCP.  I would be interested to see the distribution of seats.  On the surface it seems INC has gotten a fairly good deal.  If JD(U) and RJD are smart the 40 seats that INC gets should be in seats that has strong upper caste strength.  The path that INC has to take toward revival in Bihar would have to target the BJP upper caste  vote base. 

Just like before, the JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP seems to have good alliance dynamics, for now, at the leadership level ergo the smooth agreement on seats distribution but they will have problems at the grassroots level as their social bases might clash.  For BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM it is opposite.  The leadership level are in conflict especially between LJP and HAM as both vie to the the party of the Dalits in NDA.  As a result there are deadlock in seat distribution.  But once they get past that the NDA alliance is more likely to work at the grassroots level.

[jaichind]

NCP is calling the 3 seats it is getting in the JD(U)-RJD-INC-NCP alliance an insult and that it was not even consulted on the seat distribution.  It is demanding 12 seats.

[jaichind]

Modi is double downing on Bihar.  He announced an unheard of $20 billion package for Bihar development at a rally in Bihar today.  I guess he feels he must win Bihar or his political fortunes will fall into decline so he is putting all political capital to use for this win.

Meanwhile anti-BJP grand alliance running into more alliance trouble.  NCP is demanding 12 seats as opposed to the 3 it got or it will pull out of the alliance.  SP is also protesting that it did not get any seats.  To be fair the SP base in Bihar has declined since the 90s and now is non-existent.  AIMIM which is a Telegana based Muslim party is threatening to run candidates in Bihar which could also also damage the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance.

[jaichind]

BJP which had hoped to contest 185 seats out of 243 seats now came out saying it will contest 170 seats.  The LJP and RLSP position is still that BJP contest 102 seats with the remaining going to NDA allies (LJP RLSP and perhaps HAM.)  RLSP insists that RLSP contest 67 seats and LJP 74 seats.  HAM insists that BJP contest 122 seats.   This whole thing has to be locked down in early Sept or else the NDA would not nominate candidates in time for any real campaigning.  The BJP will most likely win this game of poker as LJP and RLSP will have no place to go since that anti-BJP alliance seat sharing process is already done.

[jaichind]

Still deadlock in NDA over seat distribution.  After LJP and RLSP held a press conference indicating that BJP should contest 102 seats, there are talks that RLSP is holding talks with RJD.  Not sure how this will go anyway as RJD JD(U) INC pretty much already allocated seats already. 

[jaichind]

NCP will exit the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as it is not satisfied with the 3 seats it got.  Most likely NCP will run on its own or join the Left Front alliance.  RJD decided to placate SP by giving 5 seats from its quota  so now it is JD(U)-RJD-INC-SP alliance.

[jaichind]

Election schedule announce.  5 rounds of from 10/10 to 11/5.  Counting is on 11/8.

Most recent developments seems to be working against JD(U)-RJD-INC grand alliance. NCP broke away as did SP from the alliance.  It seems SP-NCP will run as a bloc perhaps with the Left Front alliance.  JMM which had an understanding with  JD(U)-RJD-INC seems to have broken that understanding and will run candidates in tribal areas in Bihar.    On the other hand there are still no seat allocation deals clinched yet for BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM.  There seems to be some sniping between HAM and LJP to be "the Dalit party" in the NDA.

A recent C-voter survey did give JD(U)-RJD-INC an edge.  C-Voter gives JD(U)-RJD-INC 116 and 132 seats out of 243 with 43% of the vote while it gives BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM 94 to 110  with 40% of the poll.

[warandwar]

Election schedule announce.  5 rounds of from 10/10 to 11/5.  Counting is on 11/8.

Most recent developments seems to be working against JD(U)-RJD-INC grand alliance. NCP broke away as did SP from the alliance.  It seems SP-NCP will run as a bloc perhaps with the Left Front alliance.  JMM which had an understanding with  JD(U)-RJD-INC seems to have broken that understanding and will run candidates in tribal areas in Bihar.    On the other hand there are still no seat allocation deals clinched yet for BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM.  There seems to be some sniping between HAM and LJP to be "the Dalit party" in the NDA.

A recent C-voter survey did give JD(U)-RJD-INC an edge.  C-Voter gives JD(U)-RJD-INC 116 and 132 seats out of 243 with 43% of the vote while it gives BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM 94 to 110  with 40% of the poll.

Judging from the history of Dalit parties, I don't think the HAM/LJP dispute is going to be solved anytime soon.

[jaichind]

ITG-Cicero survey has NDA at 125 seats with 42% of the vote versus JD(U)-RJD-INC at 106 seats with 40% of the vote.  They actually have some cross-tabes which are interesting namely by caste.







As expected, NDA is strong with upper castes with any upper caste votes for JD(U)-RJD-INC due to residual influce INC has with upper castes.   RJD has Yadavs and Muslims while JD(U) is strong with Kurmis.  The surprise here is the level of support NDA has with Dalits.  Also NDA votes share of Muslims is relatively high.   The stronger performance of NDA has more to do with its ability to capture some Yadav and Muslim votes as well as lead with Dalits.  Perhaps having HAM with NDA is helping after all.

[jaichind]

BJP sources say that NDA is close to seat deal.  It seems like it will be BJP 170 LJP 40 RLSP 20 HAM 13.  But it seems this is what the BJP is pushing for and it also seems that LJP and RLSP is pushing back.  I guess the BJP source is saying that they are close to a deal because LJP and RLSP will have no choice but to accept this deal.

[jaichind]

Rumor is that NDA will announce a seat sharing deal today and that BJP has scaled down the seats they will contest from 170 to 160.

[jaichind]

Latest word is that the NDA seat sharing allocation will be BJP 160 LJP 40 RLSP 25 HAM 15.  It seems that they cannot announce this because HAM leader Manjhi insists on more then 15 seats.  The BJP is asking that 5 of the JD(U) MLAs that defected over to HAM run as BJP candidates.  These disagreements are sticking points  that prevents a formal agreement.  It seems RLSP pretty much accepted these allocations.

[jaichind]

Even as HAM leader and former JD(U) CM Manjhi rejected NDA offer of 15 seats and are working to renegotiate as he demands something like 40 seats, Manjhi's son was just arrested with about $10K worth of cash in his car on suspicion of tax avoidance.  Not sure who is behind this (JD(U) or BJP) or just bad luck but it seems this will have the effect on adding pressure on Manjhi. 

[jaichind]

It seems NDA reached an agreement on seat sharing.  BJP 160 LJP 40 RLSP 23 HAM 20.  In addition 5 HAM ex-JD(U) MLAs will contest as BJP candidates.