Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 16, 2019, 06:46:06 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Orphan Crippler)
| | |-+  Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10 Print
Author Topic: Bihar Assembly elections 12 October 2015 - 5 November 2015  (Read 21387 times)
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: September 14, 2015, 08:06:12 am »

The AP/Telegana based Muslim communal party AIMIM will run candidates in the anti-NDA bastion of Seemanchal where they are a high concentration of Muslims.  Most likely this will not hurt the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as in the 2014 LS elections JD(U)-CPI and RJD-INC-NCP ran separately and the NDA still did not win here.  On the positive side of the ledger for JD(U)-RJD-NCP it seems that SS will also run in a bunch of seats which could hurt NDA although SS ran in 2010 Bihar assembly elections and did not seem to dent JD(U)-BJP.  JMM, a week after claiming it will run in all 243 seats now is coming around to joining JD(U)-RJD-INC.  Looking at how JMM did in 2010 Assembly elections and 2014 LS elections in Bihar, I can see JMM getting 2-3 seats.  Main problem with JMM joining JD(U)-RJD-INC is that the seats that JMM could realistically win happen to have JD(U) incumbents which JD(U) won when it was allied with BJP.   
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
warandwar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: September 14, 2015, 11:37:11 am »

The AP/Telegana based Muslim communal party AIMIM will run candidates in the anti-NDA bastion of Seemanchal where they are a high concentration of Muslims.  Most likely this will not hurt the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as in the 2014 LS elections JD(U)-CPI and RJD-INC-NCP ran separately and the NDA still did not win here.  On the positive side of the ledger for JD(U)-RJD-NCP it seems that SS will also run in a bunch of seats which could hurt NDA although SS ran in 2010 Bihar assembly elections and did not seem to dent JD(U)-BJP.  JMM, a week after claiming it will run in all 243 seats now is coming around to joining JD(U)-RJD-INC.  Looking at how JMM did in 2010 Assembly elections and 2014 LS elections in Bihar, I can see JMM getting 2-3 seats.  Main problem with JMM joining JD(U)-RJD-INC is that the seats that JMM could realistically win happen to have JD(U) incumbents which JD(U) won when it was allied with BJP.   

What do you mean by SS? It can't be Shiv Sena.
Logged

jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: September 14, 2015, 11:40:24 am »

The AP/Telegana based Muslim communal party AIMIM will run candidates in the anti-NDA bastion of Seemanchal where they are a high concentration of Muslims.  Most likely this will not hurt the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as in the 2014 LS elections JD(U)-CPI and RJD-INC-NCP ran separately and the NDA still did not win here.  On the positive side of the ledger for JD(U)-RJD-NCP it seems that SS will also run in a bunch of seats which could hurt NDA although SS ran in 2010 Bihar assembly elections and did not seem to dent JD(U)-BJP.  JMM, a week after claiming it will run in all 243 seats now is coming around to joining JD(U)-RJD-INC.  Looking at how JMM did in 2010 Assembly elections and 2014 LS elections in Bihar, I can see JMM getting 2-3 seats.  Main problem with JMM joining JD(U)-RJD-INC is that the seats that JMM could realistically win happen to have JD(U) incumbents which JD(U) won when it was allied with BJP.   

What do you mean by SS? It can't be Shiv Sena.

SS is Shiv Sena.  My fault.  SHS is the correct 3 letter acronym in ECI for Shiv Sena.  I got lazy.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
warandwar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: September 14, 2015, 11:47:23 am »

The AP/Telegana based Muslim communal party AIMIM will run candidates in the anti-NDA bastion of Seemanchal where they are a high concentration of Muslims.  Most likely this will not hurt the JD(U)-RJD-INC alliance as in the 2014 LS elections JD(U)-CPI and RJD-INC-NCP ran separately and the NDA still did not win here.  On the positive side of the ledger for JD(U)-RJD-NCP it seems that SS will also run in a bunch of seats which could hurt NDA although SS ran in 2010 Bihar assembly elections and did not seem to dent JD(U)-BJP.  JMM, a week after claiming it will run in all 243 seats now is coming around to joining JD(U)-RJD-INC.  Looking at how JMM did in 2010 Assembly elections and 2014 LS elections in Bihar, I can see JMM getting 2-3 seats.  Main problem with JMM joining JD(U)-RJD-INC is that the seats that JMM could realistically win happen to have JD(U) incumbents which JD(U) won when it was allied with BJP.   

What do you mean by SS? It can't be Shiv Sena.

SS is Shiv Sena.  My fault.  SHS is the correct 3 letter acronym in ECI for Shiv Sena.  I got lazy.

I didn't know there were Marathi in Bihar.

Funny, since the Sena constantly make hay over evil, weak (and worse: potentially Muslim!) North Indians taking away jobs from the swarthy, heroic Marathi Manus.

I've seen them referred to as SS a lot, I just was surprised they were contesting Bihar.
Logged

jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: September 14, 2015, 11:55:48 am »

SP-NCP pretty much stitched up their alliance.  With NDA finalizing their seat sharing arrangement, the 4 alliances that will run will be

BJP-LJP-RLSP-HAM
JD(U)-RJD-INC (maybe JMM, we will see)
SP-NCP
CPI-CPI(ML)-CPM-SUCI-RSP-FBL

It seems SP-NCP might try to get more allies but their pretty much ruled out AIMIM and RJD Pappu Yadav's JAM (Jan Adhikar Morcha) so I am not sure who is left for them to ally with especially with JMM looking to join JD(U)-RJD-INC.

To be frank my view is that JAM is a much bigger threat to JD(U)-RJD-INC as JAM will eat into the Yadav vote while the Musilm vote will most likely vote tactically to defeat NDA.

Anyway JD(U)-RJD-INC is now moving on the the next phase of the negotiations which is exactly which party will be allocated with seat.  There is no point for a party to get a lot of seat allocations if all of them are partisan strongholds for an opposing alliance.  The NDA just came up with the equation on seat allocation so they are not in that phase yet.   In this phase I suspect JD(U)-RJD-INC will have a harder time than NDA since there are significant number of JD(U) incumbents who will not want to step aside for RJD or INC.  BJP has a lot of incumbents too but they got an allocation of 160 seats.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: September 14, 2015, 12:10:52 pm »

I didn't know there were Marathi in Bihar.

Funny, since the Sena constantly make hay over evil, weak (and worse: potentially Muslim!) North Indians taking away jobs from the swarthy, heroic Marathi Manus.

I've seen them referred to as SS a lot, I just was surprised they were contesting Bihar.

There are no Marathi in Bihar.  SHS runs BJP rebel or extreme Hindutva candidates all the time in LS or even assembly elections outside of Maharashtra.  Of course all it does is hurts BJP, a bit, by taking a small share of the vote.  In fact SHS should do poorly in Bihar since in Maharashtra, SHS and its MNS splinter often demonize Biharis and other Northern Indians .  But in both 2009 and 2014 SHS actually ran some candidates in Northern Bihar urban areas and gets a OK percent of the vote (3%-6%.)  So SHS might actually do some damage to NDA if they make a real effort.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2015, 12:37:44 pm by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
warandwar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: September 14, 2015, 06:01:13 pm »

I didn't know there were Marathi in Bihar.

Funny, since the Sena constantly make hay over evil, weak (and worse: potentially Muslim!) North Indians taking away jobs from the swarthy, heroic Marathi Manus.

I've seen them referred to as SS a lot, I just was surprised they were contesting Bihar.

There are no Marathi in Bihar.  SHS runs BJP rebel or extreme Hindutva candidates all the time in LS or even assembly elections outside of Maharashtra.  Of course all it does is hurts BJP, a bit, by taking a small share of the vote.  In fact SHS should do poorly in Bihar since in Maharashtra, SHS and its MNS splinter often demonize Biharis and other Northern Indians .  But in both 2009 and 2014 SHS actually ran some candidates in Northern Bihar urban areas and gets a OK percent of the vote (3%-6%.)  So SHS might actually do some damage to NDA if they make a real effort.

I see, I made the silly mistake of assigning coherent ideology to the Sena.
Logged

jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: September 14, 2015, 09:34:19 pm »

Election schedule announce.  5 rounds of from 10/10 to 11/5.  Counting is on 11/8.

Most recent developments seems to be working against JD(U)-RJD-INC grand alliance. NCP broke away as did SP from the alliance.  It seems SP-NCP will run as a bloc perhaps with the Left Front alliance.  JMM which had an understanding with  JD(U)-RJD-INC seems to have broken that understanding and will run candidates in tribal areas in Bihar.    On the other hand there are still no seat allocation deals clinched yet for BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM.  There seems to be some sniping between HAM and LJP to be "the Dalit party" in the NDA.

A recent C-voter survey did give JD(U)-RJD-INC an edge.  C-Voter gives JD(U)-RJD-INC 116 and 132 seats out of 243 with 43% of the vote while it gives BJP-RLSP-LJP-HAM 94 to 110  with 40% of the poll.

Judging from the history of Dalit parties, I don't think the HAM/LJP dispute is going to be solved anytime soon.

Now that HAM got a "better deal" of 20 seats instead of the original 15 plus 5 of JD(U) MLAs which defected to HAM with Manjhi will contest on the BJP ticket it is said that many within LJP is getting angry that HAM's political profile is raised which threaten's LJP's role especially among Dalits.  So I guess this sniping will go on.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: September 14, 2015, 09:37:25 pm »

I see, I made the silly mistake of assigning coherent ideology to the Sena.

At this stage SHS is feeling vulnerable and looking to hit back at BJP.  One can really see SHS as an opposition force within NDA to BJP.  SHS always seen itself as the senior partner of the Hindutva combine in Maharashtra.  Now it has been overtaken by BJP in the last assembly elections and fearing of being dumped by BJP for NCP or SHS splinter MNS it does look for ways to hit back at BJP without completely upsetting the apple cart of NDA rule in the Center and Maharashtra.  Contesting on its own in other states is one way to warn BJP not to take it for granted.   
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: September 16, 2015, 11:09:14 am »

Let the defection games begin.

Now that the NDA, in theory, has locked down the seat allocation between the NDA parties and even as LJP grumbles, the BJP announced 43 BJP candidates.  The very same day a LJP MP resigned to protest how the LJP is treated.  The reality is, in my view, that the BJP candidates are in seats inside this LJP MP district and he wanted LJP candidates in his district so he can continue being the political overlord of his district by making sure that the MLAs elected in his seat are loyal to him.  Clear with BJP candidates there this cannot take place.  Also 2 BJP MLA which were nominated immediately had a meeting with JD(U) leader and CM Nitish Kumar and indicated they will join the "secular alliance" to fight communal forces led by the BJP which they were a part of just a day earlier.   

Of course once JD(U)-RJD-INC start nominating candidates there will be plenty of defections the other way.  The we can real plenty of news articles that fit this template which I posted in the 2014 India general election thread.

--------------------------------------------------------

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.

----------------------------------------------------------
 
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: September 16, 2015, 12:00:41 pm »

It is very likely that once seats are allocated on the JD(U)-RJD-INC side there will be a bunch of rebellions from JD(U).  This is because the seat allocation between JD(U)-RJD-INC is JD(U) 100 RJD 100 INC 40 (and perhaps JMM 3.)  But JD(U) has 97 sitting MLAs after 19 defected to HAM with Manji.  JD(U) will of course give almost all these 19 seats of HAM defectors to RJD.  Still for geographical diversity as well as taking into account where INC and RJD has strength is is almost certain that a bunch of JD(U) MLA will not be re-nominated which in turn will lead more defections/rebellions.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: September 18, 2015, 03:56:47 pm »

Zee news survey NDA at 140 seats with 50.8% of the vote and JD(U)-RJD-INC at 70 seats with 42.5% of the vote.  It also has 41.2% of Muslims voting for NDA which makes this polls somewhat fishy. And if Muslims are voting for NDA at a 41.2% rate which I guess is in theory then NDA should really be at 200 seats.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
warandwar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: September 18, 2015, 05:28:34 pm »

Zee news survey NDA at 140 seats with 50.8% of the vote and JD(U)-RJD-INC at 70 seats with 42.5% of the vote.  It also has 41.2% of Muslims voting for NDA which makes this polls somewhat fishy. And if Muslims are voting for NDA at a 41.2% rate which I guess is in theory then NDA should really be at 200 seats.

And 33 extra seats for the Left/SP/AIMM seems a bit too high.
Logged

jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: September 19, 2015, 08:05:12 am »

HAM seems to be turning into a confederation of clans.  Out of the 13 candidates HAM announced so far it features 2 father-son pairs including Manjhi and son.  Of course LJP is similar with LJP candidates including LJP leader Paswan's brother and nephew.  Only reason Paswan's son is not on the list is because he is already a MP.   I would say about half the expected rebellions in all parties, especially the OBC and Dalit parties like JD(U) RJD LJP RLSP and HAM, due to seat allocations are due to some party kingpin wanting to hoist some family member as a candidate over some other local political baron.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: September 19, 2015, 08:11:09 am »

Here is one way to make sure one is re-nominated.   One RJD MLA Bhai Dinesh threatens suicide by  immolation  if he is not renominated by RJD.  It seems the current play is to for ex-RJD member  Dadan Pahalwan who also has a bandit background to join JD(U) to contest.   Dadan Pahalwan  had defected from RJD to BSP years back and now will join JD(U) as this seat has been allocated to JD(U).

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/bihar-poll-rjd-mla-threatens-to-kill-self-if-denied-ticket/articleshow/49024245.cms

Of course Bhai Dinesh is know for theatrics.  Over the last 5 years he has been on several "fast until death" campaign over various "injustices."  



Here is Bhai Dinesh on one of his many other protests and fasts from over the years.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2015, 10:04:19 am by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: September 19, 2015, 10:00:55 am »

If seems JD(U)-RJD-INC has finished up allocating seats between different parties.  The division of seats seems to be based on caste distributions of different districts with an attempt to keep JD(U) incumbents where possible.  RJD and INC both had demands on seats where high Yadav and/or Muslim concentrations which are seen as more winnable.  JD(U) made a deal with INC where a couple JD(U) members will run as INC candidates as a way to get around this and avoid defections/rebellions.   On the whole this process seems to have gone better than expected.  Most likely JMM will run in 3 seats.  We will see what the blow-back next week as candidates are announced and we see the defections roll in. 
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: September 19, 2015, 04:06:47 pm »

Looks like talks for JMM to join JD(U)-RJD-INC failed.  So it will be JD(U) 101 RJD 101 and INC 41.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: September 19, 2015, 08:44:50 pm »

LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan's son-in-law Anil Kumar Sadhu raised the banner of revolt over the denial of LJP ticket.  He said that his Dalit Sena organization which is a wing of LJP will run candidates in several seats to try to defeat his father-in-law.  He said his wife joined him in opposing her father and her father's party, LJP.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2015, 04:23:14 am by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: September 19, 2015, 08:59:05 pm »

Looks like the SP-NCP alliance will be SP-NCP-JKAM-SJP-SSP-NPP.  JKAM is Pappu Yadav's Jan Kranti Adhikar Morcha, SJP is Samajwadi Janata Party which is a remnant party of the big split of JD back in 1990-1991.  NPP is National People's Party which is a pro-NDA splinter based on the Northeast which split from NCP in 2014.  Samarth Samaj Party is a another pro-NDA NCP Bihar splinter which split from NCP back in 2014.  It will be SP 85 seats, NCP 40 seats, JKAM 64 seats,  SJP 23 seats, SSP 28 seats, and NPP 3 seats.  Its is quite funny that two NCP splinters from 2014 are now a year later back with NCP in an alliance.  Other than JKAM I do not see how this front will make that much of a difference.  JKAM has the ability to take Yadav votes away in marginal seats from JD(U)-RJD-INC.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: September 19, 2015, 09:08:27 pm »


<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasing autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.
 

Here is a news story which fits my template

http://www.aninews.in/newsdetail2/story234036/joined-bjp-to-be-part-of-bihar-039-s-development-says-former-jd-u-mla-update-.html

Where former JD(U) MLA Satish Kumar defected to BJP

"When Nitish separated from BJP, he did not take the opinion of any MLA. Our views were ignored. So I have finally decided to do this for development of Bihar. Development of Bihar is possible only under the able leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,"

Of course he did not leave JD(U) when all this (JD(U) split from BJP which as in 2013) took place but only after he did not get a JD(U) ticket 2 years later.



Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: September 20, 2015, 03:35:39 pm »

SHS will contest 150 seats in Bihar.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
warandwar
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 431
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: September 20, 2015, 08:53:37 pm »

SHS will contest 150 seats in Bihar.

I imagine most of these will more than a bit shady, to put it lightly.
Logged

jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: September 22, 2015, 06:53:42 am »

One Ashok Gupta showed up at RLSP leader Upendra Kushwaha's residence where he was holding a press conference and made a scene crying and sobbing.



It appears he wanted to contest as a candidate on the RLSP ticket but was denied such a ticket.  He also claimed at the press conference that he paid $100K to RLSP to get to contest and was cheated out of his money.

What is funny is that the press conference was mostly about Upendra Kushwaha complaining that the BJP cheated him out of a certain seat where he wanted RLSP to contest and that he is coming public with his complaint and will take it to the highest level of the BJP.  And it is interrupted by a man that claimed that  Upendra Kushwaha cheated him.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2015, 06:27:31 pm by jaichind »Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: September 23, 2015, 05:26:51 am »

More family based rebellions.  It seems both the son-in-law of LJP leader Ram Vilas Paswan and HAM leader Jitan Ram Manjhi who both were denied tickets has raised the banner of revolt and both will most likely join RJD rebel Pappu Yadav's JAP (Jan Adhikar Party).
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,399
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: September 23, 2015, 07:00:31 pm »

JD(U)-RJD-INC announces candidates for 242 out of 243 seats.  It contains 2 of Lalu Yada's sons.  Most of JD(U) and RJD candidates are dalits or OBCs.  While 40% of INC candidates are upper caste.  This matches my perceived strategy of JD(U)-RJD-INC that JD(U) and RJD will run in seats with OBC and Dalits and try to corner that vote while INC will run in seats where upper castes are more populous and try to hit the BJP core vote base of Upper castes.  There is no way JD(U) or RJD can compete with BJP for upper caste votes but perhaps INC could. 

We should see what the blow-back is.  One sitting JD(U) MLA who was not re-nominated already joined SP and will run on the SP ticket.
Logged

Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines