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  MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri
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Author Topic: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri  (Read 5298 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 21, 2015, 09:48:58 am »

Jeb Bush 50%
Hillary Clinton 40%
Undecided 10%

Scott Walker 48%
Hillary Clinton 40%
Undecided 9%

Rand Paul 47%
Hillary Clinton 42%
Undecided 11

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https://20poundsofheadlines.wordpress.com/2015/02/20/poll-hillary-trails-3-gop-contenders-in-missouri

http://fox4kc.com/2015/02/20/blunt-beats-kander-in-early-political-poll
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2015, 09:58:25 am »

Remington was one of the few pollsters to get the KS Senate & Governor races more or less right last November.

Looks like Hillary isn't doing all too hot in Missouri ...
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2015, 10:00:48 am »

I'm pleasantly surprised by a lead that large. Probably just increasing polarization unfortunately as most swing states don't seem to be coming in our direction.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2015, 10:01:27 am »

I think this is also the 1st Missouri poll that includes Hillary Clinton in 3 years or so.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2015, 10:10:21 am »

One poll in Kansas doesn't make for a track record.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2015, 10:25:52 am »

As I've said, MO is solid GOP. The state always had a high Republican floor, even when it was lean Dem.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2015, 10:39:17 am »

Who are these guys?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2015, 10:50:27 am »

As I have always said, Missouri's trend is powerful, going from 5% to the left of the nation in 1992 to 14% to the right of the nation in 2012 without ever trending democrat, and it can't be reversed (to the point where the state goes democrat for president) in one cycle barring a 2008-style wave. I shall now accept my accolades.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2015, 11:25:37 am »


You weren't skeptical when the Marist Polls showed Hillary tied in South Carolina. Tongue Polls that early don't mean anything, no matter who leads. Although it gives us an indication of the competitiveness of Missouri.

Missouri is not likely to be a 10% win for the Republican nominee in 2016. It will be competitive if Hillary Clinton does some campaigning there, especially as there will be a hot US Senate race.

Marist has been around for some time, and it polls for NBC News, which I expect to have some quality control.

Polls this early can mean something: that some alleged candidates are just not up to the level of political talent necessary for winning in the general election. I don't show Marco Rubio, and I don't show Joe Biden. Joe Biden had had plenty of opportunities to run for President before 2008 and the only way in which he ever becomes President is some personal tragedy. If Joe Biden wasn't ready for the President when he was in his 50s or 60s he isn't now. 
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« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2015, 11:36:33 am »

The 2014 elections demonstrate what was true in the Presidential race of 2012: the Republican Party has been very successful in cultivating white Southern Baptist voters, much as the Republicans were successful in cultivating Mormon voters around 1950.  Missouri used to be the bellwether state par excellence... but that is over.

A few years ago I saw a pattern: the Southern Baptist Church  is demographically strong up to roughly the Iowa-Missouri state line but weak to the north of the Iowa-Missouri state line. Barack Obama won Iowa decisively in 2008 and barely lost Missouri in 2008. Republicans would have won a Senate seat in Missouri in 2012 if their nominee hadn't made outrageous statements about a violent crime.   

This pollster suggests that Missouri will not be a GOP runaway as in 2012 under any Republican nominee. But if this holds, then Democrats can expect to win in the Mountain and Deep South only where there is a black majority. Missouri is now part of the Mountain South, and not the Midwest.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2015, 11:44:05 am »

Missouri is still a lean Tossup state. Time will tell if Hillary will campaign there.
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2015, 12:42:56 pm »

I think Hillary has a better chance of winning Arizona than Missouri. Jeb seems like a lousy candidate in the west, whatever gains he makes with Latinos he loses in whites. Westerners don't like DC insiders and both Jeb and Hillary cancel each other out. Paul is the best for the Mountain West.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2015, 01:08:57 pm »

I've said this before, Hillary has only a chance in flipping one Obama state and that's NC. Everything else you can forget about it she's not winning AZ as long as she supports full immigration reform or MO, AR, KY as long as she supports gun control.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2015, 01:48:08 pm »

Mexican-Americans (except in Texas) are going to take a long time to forgive Jeb's brother for the real estate hustle that hit Mexican-Americans hard. they were the ones most likely to buy a house with the shakiest qualifications, and they were the ones most likely to get burned  in the real estate crash. Texas? Texas' laws on underwriting loans for real estate had been reformed extensively in the 1980s, so there was no real estate loan based upon predatory lending in Texas to the extent that there was in California, Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado. 
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2015, 03:20:54 pm »

Republican pollster with no track record...yeah, I'll wait for someone legitimate.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2015, 03:28:26 pm »


You weren't skeptical when the Marist Polls showed Hillary tied in South Carolina. Tongue Polls that early don't mean anything, no matter who leads. Although it gives us an indication of the competitiveness of Missouri.

Marist is at least an established non-partisan polling firm. This is a partisan Republican firm that as far as I can tell has only released a single poll of Kansas. I'll take it about as seriously as I took that pollster nobody heard of showing Hillary up 5+ points in NC.
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marty
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2015, 03:39:41 pm »

Ferguson swung Missouri even more rightward.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2015, 06:06:01 pm »

I dont think it matters just like in WVa, MO isnt a swing state at presidential level. But, Jeb isnt 10 pts shead in MO, he is up five there. Enough for Kander and Kostrr to make it a race thete.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2015, 07:01:06 pm »

I've said this before, Hillary has only a chance in flipping one Obama state and that's NC. Everything else you can forget about it she's not winning AZ as long as she supports full immigration reform or MO, AR, KY as long as she supports gun control.

She may also have a chance in Georgia if she is winning in a landslide (7+ points). Other than that, I agree with you.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2015, 07:01:57 pm »

Because Bushes always overperform in Missouri. I wasnt implying Dems will definately win the Senate seat there, it is playable due to the gov race being a tossup.  But, just wait until a new poll comes out. I am just saying Dems should throw in the towel here, just because of one poll.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2015, 07:19:05 pm »

I've said this before, Hillary has only a chance in flipping one Obama state and that's NC. Everything else you can forget about it she's not winning AZ as long as she supports full immigration reform or MO, AR, KY as long as she supports gun control.

She may also have a chance in Georgia if she is winning in a landslide (7+ points). Other than that, I agree with you.


NC and GA will probably stay Republican because of lower Black and young turnout. I know it's early but I just don't see her creating the same "magic" (2008)  and enthusiasm (2012) that Obama did.

How do you know that? Black turnout remained steady in 2013 and 2014.

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2015, 08:12:57 pm »

The Republican base will be more motivated (presumably, of course) and the GOP will do one or two points better among Blacks in 2016. You combine that with a turnout drop among young voters and GA would only go to Hillary in a HUGE wave. AZ is a different story, though.

How will they be more motivated than 2012? Their hatred for Obama dwarfs any similar feelings they ever had for Hillary and Bill.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2015, 09:30:06 pm »

Don't worry -- there WILL be more polls, and if this Remington poll is a partisan hack poll, some pollster will make it irrelevant.
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Devils30
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« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2015, 11:02:52 pm »

NC and GA may very well stay red because they are inelastic, something Republicans forget is a problem in VA because it may not move much either. Not to mention those FL polls if Jeb isn't the nominee even if he is it's a toss.
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Xing
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« Reply #24 on: February 22, 2015, 12:06:34 am »

People are so predictable.

Poll showing Hillary ahead = Democrats: "Dominating! She'll win here for sure!" Republicans: "It's too early to tell, there's no way she'll be that far ahead in a year."

Poll showing Hillary tied/trailing = Democrats: "It's too early, she could easily do better here in the future." Republicans: "Awesome, we've got this state in the bag, no question!"

I understand the rationale behind both arguments. It is early, but at the same time, Missouri is unlikely to be competitive. Still, I can't help but notice that people only seem to use the "it's early/there's still time" argument when they see a poll number they don't like.
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