Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,094
Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« on: April 22, 2015, 06:56:22 AM » |
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Missouri is done. Let's stop citing a perfect storm of passing trends in 2008, or an incumbent Senator winning in 2012 because of a challenger so toxic that he damaged the entire national brand and was literally the worst Republican candidate of the cycle. While we're at it, we probably ought to go ahead and christen Jay Nixon as the last Democratic Governor Missouri will have for a long, long time.
Obama came so close in 2008 in Missouri because of, like I said, "passing trends". The fading conservadems and yellow dogs were still strong enough of a force there in combination with the national anti-Republican climate that it produced a result that almost handed a Democratic presidential candidate the state. Since then, whites have almost certainly become less Democratic as a whole and the people as a whole obviously do not lust for Democratic leadership/reject Republican leadership like they did in 2008. Hillary might do slightly better than Obama but I do not see her losing by less than 5.
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