Bush +4 in New Jersey...????? (!)

[The Vorlon]

Bush leads () John Kerry by 4% in a 3 way race with Nader, and is just 1% behind in a head to head matchup, according to this.. er, um, ah,.. "poll"....

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-nj--poll--bush-kerry0413apr13,0,4323251.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire

Just my opinion, but file this one in the same place as "Fred's 100% all beef Hot Dog Poll", "Zelda's Amazing Gypsy tarot Card Predictor" and, well Newsweek...

Bush +4 in New Jersey...

And I though I had a sense of Humor

TRENTON, N.J. -- Fewer New Jerseyans support the war in Iraq but voters have not yet abandoned President George W. Bush for Democratic opponent John Kerry, according to a poll released Tuesday.

A Fairleigh-Dickinson PublicMind poll found that 47 percent of respondents agreed that the United States' decision to go to war in Iraq was the right thing to do, down from January when 55 percent supported the effort. A year ago, 67 percent agreed about the war.

The percentage of voters who believe the country is "on the wrong track" has increased by 10 percent from three months ago to 48 percent, but Bush still has widespread voter support.

Bush and Kerry are running closely in the poll. Forty percent of voters favor Bush, while 41 percent support Kerry. When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included in the poll, the five percent he gets pushes Bush ahead with 48 percent compared to 44 percent for Kerry.

"Its far too early to see exactly how events in Iraq will affect the president in November's election, but it's clear the public is more deeply concerned after some difficult weeks in Iraq," said poll director Bruce Larson.

The PublicMind poll of 802 registered voters was conducted from April 3 through April 10. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

[Nation]

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=2145

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two words: "Uni Poll"

[MAS117]

that will change, kerry will have no problem winning NJ

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Two words: "Uni Poll"

True.  Bush doesn't win here, even in a landslide.  

[Inmate Trump]

Two words: "Uni Poll"

True.  Bush doesn't win here, even in a landslide.  

Wrong.  In a landslide, Bush *could* win New Jersey.  In a landslide, Bush could win California, or even New York.  In a landslide.

But a landslide won't happen this year, so it's very doubtfull he'll win your state.

But don't be so quick to say that even in a landslide he couldn't win it.  I live in Georgia (a very Republican state, even in 1992--it only went Dem that year b/c of Perot, and the conservative vote was split) but I'm not naive enough to say we couldn't go Dem in a landslide favoring a Dem candidate.

[classical liberal]

GA was 54-44 last time.  That means a 5% shift would put it in Kerry's camp.  By that same token, MD was 56-42, a 6% shift would put it in Bush's camp.  To win a landslide in the EC, you really only need like 7-8% of voters to switch camps.

[opebo]

NJ was 56 to 40 last time.  That would be tough to surmount, but I think that there are a lot more swing voters in New Jersey than in Maryland or Georgia, so it would respond more to overall momentum.

Bush could win NJ but he won't have that sort of a landslide this time.

[classical liberal]

NJ would switch in an 8% of voters switching camps event.  If 8% of voters went from Kerry to Bush, Bush would win 467-71.  If 8% of voters left Bush and went to Kerry, Kerry would win 456-82.  Almost every state is split straight down the middle.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I meant the biggest possible landslide this time.  I think its near impossible to get 350+ eVS this time around.  It's so evenly divided.  I was saying, excluded something HUGE happening, I don't think Bush can carry Jersey in his best possible scenario.  Michigan, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota....yes, but the NE seem as much out of reach 4 Bush as the South is for Kerry.  

[agcatter]

Bush won't carry NJ.  He might run 2 or 3 points better than 2000.  However, nobody in Bush's campaign believes Bush will actually carry that state.  This poll just defies every voting trend for the last 3 elections.

[MAS117]

In his 4 years as President he might ahve been here once, even if that... Democratics have total control of the state....governor, both senators, state assembly, and state senate

[12th Doctor]

This poll maybe off, but I can tellyou one thing.  If Giuliani is on the ticket Bush WILL win in New Jersey.

[Lunar]

This poll maybe off, but I can tellyou one thing.  If Giuliani is on the ticket Bush WILL win in New Jersey.

Guiliani is a good man, but he won't get Bush to catch up 16+ points in New Jersey.  You are saying that he WILL win rather than it bing a tossup, so perhaps you're implying that Guiliani will give Bush a lead of say, +6, making Bush catch up about 22 points.  

Sorry bub, Vice Presidents don't have that impact.

[© tweed]

This poll maybe off, but I can tellyou one thing.  If Giuliani is on the ticket Bush WILL win in New Jersey.

Nah.  Rudy won't deliver any states to Bush.  He probably wouldn't take any away either, but many conservatives would stay home.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

This poll maybe off, but I can tellyou one thing.  If Giuliani is on the ticket Bush WILL win in New Jersey.

Not as VP, no.  If he were at the top of the ticket, then yes, I think he would sway enough voters to carry NJ.  

[12th Doctor]

New Jersey was once a top Republican state.  It may be heavily Democratic now, but I would arguee that some underlying pro-Republican feeling does still exist.  A good Republican ticket like Bush/Giuliani could awaken that feeling.  At any rate, I wouldn't totally dismiss this poll.  As I said, NJ was once a hugely Republican state and this was no more than a decade ago, so this poll may not be far off if New Jerseyans trust Bush more than Kerry on defense, especially after 9/11.  I'll say not HIGHLY likely, but very plausible.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Two words: "Uni Poll"

True.  Bush doesn't win here, even in a landslide.  

In a landslide, yes.  If the economy improves drastically, and Iraq stabilizes and we start bringing troops home, Bush's approval will go through the roof.  Then the following happens:



Granted, I don't think this will happen, but this is a best-case scenario for Bush.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Two words: "Uni Poll"

True.  Bush doesn't win here, even in a landslide.  

In a landslide, yes.  If the economy improves drastically, and Iraq stabilizes and we start bringing troops home, Bush's approval will go through the roof.  Then the following happens:



Granted, I don't think this will happen, but this is a best-case scenario for Bush.

Iraq, stablize?  Fine, Bush can meet his deadline, but no one even in this country is going to take kindly to the chaos that ensues.  I mean, they are BARELY on the starting path to establishing a government there, how are we gonna have that place ready in 2 months?  We're not, and that deadline is gonna be pushed back, and you're gonna see Bush's approval go thru the floor.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

New Jersey was once a top Republican state.  It may be heavily Democratic now, but I would arguee that some underlying pro-Republican feeling does still exist.  A good Republican ticket like Bush/Giuliani could awaken that feeling.  At any rate, I wouldn't totally dismiss this poll.  As I said, NJ was once a hugely Republican state and this was no more than a decade ago, so this poll may not be far off if New Jerseyans trust Bush more than Kerry on defense, especially after 9/11.  I'll say not HIGHLY likely, but very plausible.

Yea, NJ was republican 20 years ago.  Our views have not switched, the parties have.  I might be a republican 20 years ago, too.  But as of right now, Bush cannot win here, alot because of social issues.  

[Gustaf]

If Bush pulls out, i.e. no Americans around to be killed it won't matter. Sure, the rest of the world might criticize you, but I don't think the American electorate would care much about Iraqis killing each other off. It would become a non-issue very quickly, as soon as CNN stops covering it. Bush needs to keep the dead-line, the only reason to not do so would be if he could actually succeed there and get votes from it. But that seems very unlikely.

[opebo]

Two words: "Uni Poll"

True.  Bush doesn't win here, even in a landslide.  

In a landslide, yes.  If the economy improves drastically, and Iraq stabilizes and we start bringing troops home, Bush's approval will go through the roof.  Then the following happens:



Granted, I don't think this will happen, but this is a best-case scenario for Bush.

Actually in a best-case Scenario I think Bush gets Illinois and California in addition to what you show.

[ian]

It IS a University poll, so I agree wholeheartedly that it is pretty unreliable.  But I did see a close race a little earlier when a poll in Nov. showed Bush pretty close to Kerry.  And it's so close to PA that it has to be pretty close.

[TomAtPitt]

First off, uni polls aren't nessecarily unreliable.

Next, if you check out www.dcpoliticalreport.com, you will find that these numbers have been pretty remarkably consistent, Bush has been about even with named Democrats for about a year now. It would seem strange for New Jersey of all places to go for Bush, though, but these numbers are interesting.

[agcatter]

When something seems too good to be true it usually is exactly that - too good to be true.