Evan Bayh vs. George Allen

[Joe Biden 2020]

In this hypothetical matchup, who would win and what would the EV count be?

[Joe Biden 2020]

My prediction -- Evan Bayh would win 290-248 with low voter turnout due to both being Senators

[Moooooo]

I dont know...  Allen is weird.  I get the feeling that he could be really tough to beat.  Not because of his record, though.  He could play the southern, conservative, cowboy.  Possibly better than Bush, and receive similar if not better results.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Allen would keep nearly all of the Bush states in the GOP column, and possibly expand on them. 

Bayh and Allen would be a pretty good matchup.  Allen was a gov, so he has executive as well as legislative experience.

I wonder if Allen would be able to keep Bayh from winnning IN.

[Moooooo]

Here is my map...



Bayh may do a little better in the Midwest and West.

[No more McShame]

That's probably a good map NickSheep.  I see it the same way.  What do you think the popular would be?  I'd see it as real close popular vote.

[Moooooo]

That's probably a good map NickSheep.  I see it the same way.  What do you think the popular would be?  I'd see it as real close popular vote.

Maybe, something like...

Bayh - 49%
Allen - 47%
Other - 4%

What do you think?

[Joe Biden 2020]

That's probably a good map NickSheep. I see it the same way. What do you think the popular would be? I'd see it as real close popular vote.

Maybe, something like...

Bayh - 49%
Allen - 47%
Other - 4%

What do you think?

That's close to my prediction.

Bayh -- 50
Allen -- 46
3rd Party -- 4

[AuH2O]

I think Allen would win a close race, primarily on the basis of personality.

[Moooooo]

I think Allen would win a close race, primarily on the basis of personality.

Possibly. 

Like I said earlier, Allen can play the southern, conservative, cowboy bit...  Possibly better than George W. Bush.  Id prefer that he not receive the Republican nomination in 2008.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Either way, it will be very close

[Smash255]

Bayh 51-46 in the PV,  3rd party 1.5%.  Bayh's moderate views and appeal in the midwest would be too much for Allen.  He isn't my top choice, but Bayh IMHO has the best chance to win for the Dems & will be very hard for the GOP to beat (unless things are much better 3 & 1/2 years from now, but I don't see that happening)


Oops

[No more McShame]

I don't see Colorado, Nevada, and Florida going Dem unless it's a real blowout, which I don't think this will be (unless all goes haywire the next 3 years).

My popular vote prediction

Bayh 49%
Allen 48%
Others 3%

[Smash255]

I don't see Colorado, Nevada, and Florida going Dem unless it's a real blowout, which I don't think this will be (unless all goes haywire the next 3 years).

My popular vote prediction

Bayh 49%
Allen 48%
Others 3%

Las Vegas is seeing pretty large growth, Nevada is trending Dem against the Natl average.  Colorado is without a doubt trending Dem (only state that move to the Dem side more was Vermont).  Florida was moving Dem, wnet back to trend Rep, but mainly due to a Popular Gov who was the President's brother.  Still only about 2.5% more GOp than the NATL average, so in an election where the Dem wins by about 5 Nationally it goes Dem

[No more McShame]

Nevada:  I'm not so sure that's because of the Yucca Mtn issue.  A lot of the growth in Las Vegas is Californians fleeing Democratic rule.  I guess we'll see in future elections.

Colorado:  Trending Dem, but I don't see it switching in 2008 barring a blowout.  Still a ways to go.

Florida:  Sticks with the Southerner.  I don't think Bayh would go over as well there as he would in the midwest.

[Joe Republic]

Bayh and Allen would be a pretty good matchup.  Allen was a gov, so he has executive as well as legislative experience.

Bayh was governor too.


This would be a really good match-up as I like both candidates.  The problem the Dems would have is a possible split, with a lot of left-wingers voting for a leftist third party nominee.  If that happens, Bayh is doomed.

The only way he can prevent that is to have a liberal as his running mate.  But then the state that that person comes from would also matter.  A liberal from somewhere like CA, MA, or NY would send many moderate swing voters running to George Allen.  But a liberal from a more moderate swing state (Russ Feingold springs to mind) would probably keep many swing voters in line.  Either way, its a fine line for Evan Bayh.

[Democratic Hawk]

Here is my map...



Bayh may do a little better in the Midwest and West.

I think Bayh has a good chance of picking up Missouri; though with a Southerner like Allen heading the GOP ticket that puts most of the South out of Bayh's reach (he stands an outside chance in Arkansas and Florida) - though he would fair better in the PV than Kerry did. Colorado and Nevada would be toss-ups that could go Bayh's way

[Joe Republic]

I think Bayh has a good chance of picking up Missouri; though with a Southerner like Allen heading the GOP ticket that puts most of the South out of Bayh's reach (he stands an outside chance in Arkansas and Florida) - though he would fair better in the PV than Kerry did. Colorado and Nevada would be toss-ups that could go Bayh's way

I agree.  Bayh could actually stand good stead in the South - Indiana seems to have more in common with the South than its neighbors for some strange reason.  But against an actual Southerner he loses any chances he'd have had there.  In the choice between two Southern candidates, the South will go for the Republican.

Missouri and probably Arkansas would be toss-ups.