Fmr. Rep. Lampson will run against DeLay (user search)
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  Fmr. Rep. Lampson will run against DeLay (search mode)
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Author Topic: Fmr. Rep. Lampson will run against DeLay  (Read 6368 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
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« on: April 26, 2005, 04:00:38 PM »

To answer a number of questions here (and to not get Democrat hopes up to highly), let me first start off by saying that I think Lampson is the best challenger that the Democrats could get for this seat.

That being said, the road ahead for him is extremely hard.  The first key thing is to get the money angle down, so he is at least competitive in that regards.  That I don't think is that big of a problem.

Also, he does not presently live in the District and even though you don't have to live in a CD to run, I will imagine that he'll move.  Of course, he's liable to be labeled a carpetbagger, that's pretty expected.

Secondly, the 30% of DeLay's district is his old CD is misleading.  Here is DeLay's CD:



The part of DeLay's district that was Lampson's old CD is the part lying in Galveston County.  Unfortunately, that area, though growing at a fairly fast rate is still fairly rural.  It's 30% of the land, but I'm nearly 100% sure it's nowhere near 30% of the population.

Secondly, DeLay lost that area in 2004 anyway by decent margin as jimrtex will happily point out, so the only thing Lampson could possibly do is increase the percentages there, maybe.

DeLay's strengths will be in the large Fort Bend County part other than Missouri City, and the hugely Republican suburbs around Pearland and Friendswood in Brazoria County.

Secondly, for nini2287, Morrison was an total anti-DeLay candidate, unknown elsewhere.  The 41% he got is entirely due to being anti-DeLay.  He's not running this time because he doesn't have any money to actually run with.

Simply put, I don't see how Lampson can get more than 45% in this CD, period.  I have been proven wrong before, however.
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Sam Spade
SamSpade
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Posts: 27,547


« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2005, 09:41:51 PM »

Thanks, jimrtex, for the excellent, more in-depth explanation than I could provide.  Smiley
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