Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 25, 2019, 06:34:33 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA  (Read 4006 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 10, 2015, 07:14:24 pm »

It's starting to look somewhat grim for the Kentucky GOP...

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/03/10/3738389_bluegrass-poll-jack-conway-holds.html
Logged
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2015, 07:25:33 pm »

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Survey USA on 2015-03-08

Summary: D: 40%, R: 38%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2015, 07:25:43 pm »

Incidentally, Heiner - not Comer - has a pretty commanding lead in the Republican primary now.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,737
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2015, 08:56:44 pm »

Eh, let's remember that SUSA kind of sucks at polling KY. I won't easily forget all their heartbreaking "Grimes within the MoE" polls even when nobody else was showing it close.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,604
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2015, 11:16:01 pm »

Wow, Conway leads 2 with SURVEYUSA 8 months out. Astounding.
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,232
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2015, 11:49:06 pm »

Still a Toss-Up.

After watching McConnell win by 15 points in a race that was supposed to be neck and neck, I'm skeptical of this actually being true come November, especially when it comes from SUSA, who showed Grimes ahead in OCTOBER.
Logged
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,478
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2015, 12:44:45 am »

Didn't SurveyUSA have Grimes up in October?
Logged
Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,232
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2015, 12:48:55 am »

Didn't SurveyUSA have Grimes up in October?
Yes. And their final poll had McConnell only up 5.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2015, 09:13:14 am »

Remember, this is the pollster that got Ernie Fletcher "elected." They're not exactly a big Democratic pollster.

Plus, Conway is leading in every non-Republican poll, sometimes by as much as 12 against Comer.
Logged
Mr. Reactionary
blackraisin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,264
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.45, S: -3.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2015, 01:13:47 pm »

8 months out.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2015, 01:18:08 pm »

Will The Media do its best to destroy Conway and the Democrats? Yes.

The real question is: Will it be enough?
Logged
Joshua
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,467
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2015, 01:20:05 pm »

Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity?

Before they held the state house, I didn't think this race was winnable for Dems. But I guess it'll be the tossup of 2015.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2015, 01:22:40 pm »

Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity?

Maybe it has more to do with the Republicans' unpopularity. The GOP made "right-to-work" its top priority, which has ruined the GOP at the state level.
Logged
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2015, 01:30:51 pm »

Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity?

Maybe it has more to do with the Republicans' unpopularity. The GOP made "right-to-work" its top priority, which has ruined the GOP at the state level.

The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,604
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2015, 01:32:52 pm »

Someone get this guy some clown makeup.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2015, 01:40:43 pm »

The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history.

"Right-to-work" is unpopular.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,646
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.87, S: -6.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2015, 02:15:34 pm »

I'll be laughing when Conway blows this in November.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 11, 2015, 02:22:57 pm »

I'll be laughing when Conway blows this in November.

What if he doesn't?
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,845
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2015, 02:53:17 pm »

Toss-up. Whatever the accuracy of this poll may be, +2 is not exactly a commanding lead.
Logged
Once & Future Pres. Griff
Adam Griffin
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,150
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 11, 2015, 06:20:06 pm »

SUSA doesn't suck at polling. Every pollster sucked in 2014 save for a couple of coincidentally-correct pollsters; SUSA has a great track record by and large.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2015, 07:23:00 pm »

The Courier-Journal has a big article about how SurveyUSA has recalibrated its poll this time to give more "accurate" results...

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/03/10/bluegrass-poll-revamped-improve-results/24718143

In other words, they've changed their methodology to reflect Republicans rigging elections. Such is the state of polling today.
Logged
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 11, 2015, 08:28:50 pm »

The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history.

"Right-to-work" is unpopular.

So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point Tongue
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,546


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 11, 2015, 08:41:47 pm »

So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point Tongue

Ever hear of a place called Elliott County?
Logged
Joe Republic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34,615
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2015, 08:44:12 pm »

I come to threads discussing Kentucky's elections just for Bandit's analysis.  His analysis is the best analysis, very yes.
Logged
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2015, 10:58:35 pm »

So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point Tongue

Ever hear of a place called Elliott County?

Ever hear of the complete decimation of Democratic officeholders from West Virginia to Tennessee? Just because there's one county that still supports Democrats (even though it barely voted for Obama over Romney in 2012) indicates one trend: it's moving to the Republicans. In 2000, Gore won the county by thirty points (despite Bush winning the state by 15), but in 2012, Obama won the county by three points (27% total drop in twelve years) while the margin for the Republican margin in Kentucky only increased by 8%.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC