GOP-dominated suburbs
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  GOP-dominated suburbs
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Author Topic: GOP-dominated suburbs  (Read 5097 times)
muon2
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« Reply #25 on: March 22, 2015, 10:41:07 PM »
« edited: March 22, 2015, 10:43:26 PM by muon2 »

DKE coined the phrase "Circle of Ignorance" for Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington counties. It's pretty much stuck and I usually use it when I talk about that area.

These counties have some of the highest educational levels in the state (along with Dane County). Its literally wrong to call them that.


I'm curious ElectionsGuy.  How would the average WOW county resident respond to the following questions?
1. Do you believe the Earth is 6000 years old?
2. Do you believe in evolution?
3. Do you believe in global warming?

I assume the answers would be No, Yes, No for a county with those demographics, but it seems oddly conservative for a wealthy suburb.....is it super religious/fundie there?

I would agree. These suburbs are no more religious than the rest of Wisconsin, and if they're (as a whole) any kind of Republican voter, they're the most informed and intelligent. The turnout rates are so high its almost unreal. Highly educated and wealthy people who are consistently conservative is something this forum doesn't want to admit. And while they would probably vote against gay marriage if it was up on a vote, they would also vote much more overwhelmingly against a tax increase. People who think these Republican counties are ignorant hellholes full of SoCons are just wrong.

They sound like the Seattle suburbs in the 80s and most of the 90s, in that case.

There are lots of suburbs of the northern cities that fit that description - middle-class to wealthy, educated, fiscally conservative, Republican. They are moderate on social issues, meaning that they are slow to change from traditional views, but not resistant when the tide is moving since it isn't social issues that define them. They have far less income inequality (eg gini coefficient) than the central city or the rural areas near them. They prefer to keep things the way they are until that way hurts their family.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #26 on: October 08, 2017, 03:37:54 AM »

Lol old me.
Also, this is pre 2016 election and it shows.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #27 on: October 08, 2017, 01:07:16 PM »

Worth nothing that most of Milwaukee's police department is made of officers who live in the WOW counties. Which helps  explain why most of them are racist pricks who are terrified of the citizens in the City they're supposed to serve.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #28 on: October 09, 2017, 06:12:43 PM »


Trump received "only" 60% in Wausheka County!
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jimrtex
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« Reply #29 on: October 11, 2017, 08:31:47 PM »

Edina went from 2.6% black in 2000 to 3% black in 2010. Obama carried it by 11 points in 2008 - not that Dem really.
Brooklyn Center was 26% black in 2010, and Brooklyn Park was 24%. Blacks have moved northward from north (west) Minneapolis.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #30 on: October 16, 2017, 12:55:32 PM »

The better question would be what makes certain suburbs vote Democratic.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #31 on: October 16, 2017, 03:06:12 PM »

The better question would be what makes certain suburbs vote Democratic.

Well the obvious one is demographics the other is suburbs where a majority of the middle class work in service sector jobs.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #32 on: October 16, 2017, 03:12:56 PM »

The better question would be what makes certain suburbs vote Democratic.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #33 on: October 16, 2017, 03:13:31 PM »

The better question would be what makes certain suburbs vote Democratic.

Well the obvious one is demographics the other is suburbs where a majority of the middle class work in service sector jobs.

PR didn't say it was a "perfect question," simply a "better question." Tongue
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PoliticalShelter
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« Reply #34 on: October 16, 2017, 03:36:20 PM »

The three main factors I think that would determine how republican a suburb is, would be:

Diversity: the more diverse, the less republican it will generally be.

Religiosity: Obvisouly the higher religious affliation (particularly evangelical), the more GOP.

Urbanisation: suburbs that have a more "exurban" (less congested and more spacious) character will be more republican than those with a more "urban" character.
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MarkD
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« Reply #35 on: October 16, 2017, 03:45:12 PM »

The three main factors I think that would determine how republican a suburb is, would be:

Diversity: the more diverse, the less republican it will generally be.

Religiosity: Obvisouly the higher religious affliation (particularly evangelical), the more GOP.

Urbanisation: suburbs that have a more "exurban" (less congested and more spacious) character will be more republican than those with a more "urban" character.

This is good; these observations said it better than I could have said it.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #36 on: October 16, 2017, 03:55:21 PM »

The three main factors I think that would determine how republican a suburb is, would be:

Diversity: the more diverse, the less republican it will generally be.

Religiosity: Obvisouly the higher religious affliation (particularly evangelical), the more GOP.

Urbanisation: suburbs that have a more "exurban" (less congested and more spacious) character will be more republican than those with a more "urban" character.

I'd agree with this.  Also look at the occupational-educational tilt as well - more management and business owners = more GOP; more graduate degrees and certain human service and "creative" professions = more Democratic.
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Kamala
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« Reply #37 on: October 16, 2017, 03:57:19 PM »

The three main factors I think that would determine how republican a suburb is, would be:

Diversity: the more diverse, the less republican it will generally be.

Religiosity: Obvisouly the higher religious affliation (particularly evangelical), the more GOP.

Urbanisation: suburbs that have a more "exurban" (less congested and more spacious) character will be more republican than those with a more "urban" character.

These are good, but obviously, as to any rule, there are exceptions.

TX-03 is only 55% white and more of the "urban" variety of suburbs, but is rock-ribbed Republican.

Rockland County, NY, is 78% white, exurban, and leans Democratic - voting D by at least a 5 point margin since 1992 except for 2004.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #38 on: October 16, 2017, 05:20:39 PM »

The better question would be what makes certain suburbs vote Democratic.

Well the obvious one is demographics the other is suburbs where a majority of the middle class work in service sector jobs.

PR didn't say it was a "perfect question," simply a "better question." Tongue
Nobody said perfect I was just saying my reason why certain suburbs voted Democrat and some don't. I don't really know what else you can take from that?
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Green Line
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« Reply #39 on: October 16, 2017, 05:48:20 PM »

A lot of economic anxiety in Waukesha County.
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Smash255
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« Reply #40 on: October 16, 2017, 08:00:02 PM »

The three main factors I think that would determine how republican a suburb is, would be:

Diversity: the more diverse, the less republican it will generally be.

Religiosity: Obvisouly the higher religious affliation (particularly evangelical), the more GOP.

Urbanisation: suburbs that have a more "exurban" (less congested and more spacious) character will be more republican than those with a more "urban" character.

These are good, but obviously, as to any rule, there are exceptions.

TX-03 is only 55% white and more of the "urban" variety of suburbs, but is rock-ribbed Republican.

Rockland County, NY, is 78% white, exurban, and leans Democratic - voting D by at least a 5 point margin since 1992 except for 2004.

Can't really say Rockland  is exurban, it is primarily suburban.  Also you are comparing White in Rockland to non-Hispanic White in TX-3.  Rockland is 63.9% non-Hispanic White, and no question is less religious than TX-3 (which did trend rather heavily towards Clinton)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #41 on: October 16, 2017, 08:07:18 PM »

...so about half of Rockland's population is Jewish.  A very large proportion of the Jewish population is Hasidic though. 
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #42 on: October 21, 2017, 04:17:03 PM »

This is an increasingly dying trend. Dying silents/boomers, diversification, millennials coming of age, college educated voters moving left, an anti-Trump flight to the Democrats as the GOP becomes the "party of Trump", a lot of Trump voters losing faith in him and his party. The boundary is moving outward and will move the country very leftward. Most suburbs had big swings towards Hillary, so yeah the GOP isn't looking in good shape.
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OneJ
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« Reply #43 on: October 21, 2017, 06:01:14 PM »

Suburbs of Jackson, MS are pretty Republican except for cities like Byram and Canton (Canton is over 70% Black and Byram is over 50% Black and the Black % in the affluent Byram is rapidly growing). Madison County votes around the same margin as the state as a whole while Rankin County votes around at 80% GOP routinely.

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Kamala
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« Reply #44 on: October 21, 2017, 06:30:56 PM »

Are there any cities that are (significantly) more conservative than their suburbs?

Alternatively: are there any suburbs that are significantly more left-wing than the urban area?
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #45 on: October 21, 2017, 06:35:38 PM »

This is an increasingly dying trend. Dying silents/boomers, diversification, millennials coming of age, college educated voters moving left, an anti-Trump flight to the Democrats as the GOP becomes the "party of Trump", a lot of Trump voters losing faith in him and his party. The boundary is moving outward and will move the country very leftward. Most suburbs had big swings towards Hillary, so yeah the GOP isn't looking in good shape.

Most wealthy suburbs had big swings toward Hillary. Most lower income suburbs had big swings away from Hillary. Therein lies the difference.
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« Reply #46 on: October 21, 2017, 07:54:59 PM »

Alternatively: are there any suburbs that are significantly more left-wing than the urban area?

Hamilton County, OH has a few. Settlement patterns in metro Cincinnati are kind of weird, and there are some suburbs, including a few a bit far out that are heavily black and far more Democratic than Cincinnati.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #47 on: October 22, 2017, 12:44:50 AM »

Are there any cities that are (significantly) more conservative than their suburbs?

Alternatively: are there any suburbs that are significantly more left-wing than the urban area?

Technically, yes, a lot of inner city voters aren't exactly "liberal" but poor black/Hispanic voters who vote Democratic because of welfare and social programs.
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BRTD
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« Reply #48 on: October 22, 2017, 11:25:03 AM »


In 2012 Obama's margin dropped to 7 points, trending Pub by about 30 basis points. Whatever Dem trend there was, has stalled. It's Dem PVI is about 1.5%.

But yes, in 2000 it had a Pub PVI of 3.5%. 2004 was the big Pub tanking in Edina (probably due to the Iraq war). It swung to a Dem PVI of 2.5% (a 6 point Dem trend). Now its back down a tad to a 1.5% Dem PVI.

Edina voted for Hillary by 27 points.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #49 on: October 22, 2017, 11:32:26 AM »

Are there any cities that are (significantly) more conservative than their suburbs?

Alternatively: are there any suburbs that are significantly more left-wing than the urban area?

Technically, yes, a lot of inner city voters aren't exactly "liberal" but poor black/Hispanic voters who vote Democratic because of welfare and social programs.

So, liberal.
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