FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Gass3268]

Orlando Sentinel endorses Murphy

First time they have not endorsed Flawless Beautiful Marco for a statewide race.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Rubio is incredibly vulnerable because of his poor performance and cowardice during the debates against Trump, and his endorsement of Trump and refusal to disavow him at any point afterwards, despite Rubio's own acknowledgement that Trump is racist and dangerous.

[Fargobison]

DSCC throws in the towel...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/AlexConant/status/788407805690650624

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, how big will the rubioslide be? 10 points? 15 points? 25 points?

[RogueBeaver]

DSCC gone from FL. https://twitter.com/ByKristenMClark/status/788411152187482113

[Heisenberg]

DSCC gone from FL. https://twitter.com/ByKristenMClark/status/788411152187482113

Woo hoo!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DSCC gone from FL. https://twitter.com/ByKristenMClark/status/788411152187482113

B-b-b-but what about Trump?!?!11?

The Hillary Clinton Campaign is still there, but everyone knows that Trump and Rubio's fates aren't linked. This is the only real question now:

So, how big will the rubioslide be? 10 points? 15 points? 25 points?

[Blackacre]

The DSCC just messed up big time.

Having said that, if they win NC/MO/In and lose FL, with data suggesting they would have lost the aforementioned three seats without the spending, it was probably worth it. Also, why didn't Murphy agree to the debates? Damn.

[Vosem]

Over on AAD, tweed suggested a neat explanation for why all the polls seem to have this race with Rubio barely ahead but the DSCC feels so despondent -- Florida is a very strong early voting state, so enough votes may have been cast already in the correct locations that the Democrats know it's too late to stop Rubio even if the maximal imaginable Trump collapse occurs.

[Blackacre]

Republicans should be sending "Thank you" notes to Rubio because Murphy would have won in a landslide against any other GOP candidate (Beruff comes to my mind, lol).

It's like the RSCC watched Fullmetal Alchemist, created a special transmutation circle, and, using the law of Equivalent Exchange, traded their Indiana seat for the Florida seat. Thats the only way i can explain Rubio and Bayh

[Dereich]

Republicans should be sending "Thank you" notes to Rubio because Murphy would have won in a landslide against any other GOP candidate (Beruff comes to my mind, lol).

No. This was wrong three months ago and is wrong now. Beruff is not comparable to the other mainstream Senate candidates who would all be roughly tied with Murphy because of an all-around lack of name recognition. Nobody wins landslides in Florida except MAYBE Bill Nelson in a good year. Your little narrative has always been a baseless delusion and you should stop trying to peddle it.

[Blackacre]

Republicans should be sending "Thank you" notes to Rubio because Murphy would have won in a landslide against any other GOP candidate (Beruff comes to my mind, lol).

No. This was wrong three months ago and is wrong now. Beruff is not comparable to the other mainstream Senate candidates who would all be roughly tied with Murphy because of an all-around lack of name recognition. Nobody wins landslides in Florida except MAYBE Bill Nelson in a good year. Your little narrative has always been a baseless delusion and you should stop trying to peddle it.

Still, "roughly tied" is a lot worse for the Senate Republicans than "comfortable Rubio win." Generic D and Generic R would have gotten washed up in the Presidential tide and that would have meant a Murphy victory

[Maxwell]

if this election turns out to be a 5-6 Clinton win as it looks right now, Rubio by 5 or 6. If Clinton begins winning by 10-11, Rubio by 1 or 2. If it begins becoming a tidal wave even bigger than that, Murphy may actually win by the magical hillary coat-tails.

[Green Line]

Republicans should be sending "Thank you" notes to Rubio because Murphy would have won in a landslide against any other GOP candidate (Beruff comes to my mind, lol).

No. This was wrong three months ago and is wrong now. Beruff is not comparable to the other mainstream Senate candidates who would all be roughly tied with Murphy because of an all-around lack of name recognition. Nobody wins landslides in Florida except MAYBE Bill Nelson in a good year. Your little narrative has always been a baseless delusion and you should stop trying to peddle it.

When will you admit that you were totally wrong about your own state?!  TNVolunteer knows more about Florida politics.  It's Sad!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Republicans should be sending "Thank you" notes to Rubio because Murphy would have won in a landslide against any other GOP candidate (Beruff comes to my mind, lol).

No. This was wrong three months ago and is wrong now. Beruff is not comparable to the other mainstream Senate candidates who would all be roughly tied with Murphy because of an all-around lack of name recognition. Nobody wins landslides in Florida except MAYBE Bill Nelson in a good year. Your little narrative has always been a baseless delusion and you should stop trying to peddle it.

When will you admit that you were totally wrong about your own state?!  TNVolunteer knows more about Florida politics.  It's Sad!

What's sad is that Rubio is once again getting off the hook for taking advantage of a situation that was handed to him on a platter. Murphy's meltdown wasn't anything compared to the Marcobot malfunction.

[Dereich]

Republicans should be sending "Thank you" notes to Rubio because Murphy would have won in a landslide against any other GOP candidate (Beruff comes to my mind, lol).

No. This was wrong three months ago and is wrong now. Beruff is not comparable to the other mainstream Senate candidates who would all be roughly tied with Murphy because of an all-around lack of name recognition. Nobody wins landslides in Florida except MAYBE Bill Nelson in a good year. Your little narrative has always been a baseless delusion and you should stop trying to peddle it.

When will you admit that you were totally wrong about your own state?!  TNVolunteer knows more about Florida politics.  It's Sad!

TVVolunteer knows as much about Florida Politics as he does about next month's lotto numbers. He was praying for/predicting Marco's reentry when NOTHING said it was likely or necessary. Rubio is on record as hating the Senate; his Senate career and testimonials about what he says in private point to the same thing. Nobody who knew anything about Rubio said he wanted to or was planning to run again; his family, his friends, major donors, and all major political players in the state all agreed that he didn't want to run again and had no plan to do so.

At the same time, there was no evidence for his faith in Murphy or his lack of faith in the other GOP candidates (not including Beruff who doesn't count as a real candidate). There was always good reason to doubt Murphy's ability as a candidate; I did so several times. Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45% barring a huge national landslide. When the candidates are polling below that its flat out from lack of name recognition, not by any deficiency by the candidate. Because of institutional strength, in a Florida race you ALWAYS have to start from the assumption that the Republican will be ahead unless the Republican is toxic to some part of their coalition or the Democrat can appeal better than average to some key GOP demographic; for Bill Nelson that's Southern Whites; he wins by keeping the margins much tighter than the GOP can afford in parts of the Panhandle and places like Marion County.

Was there anything wrong with the GOP candidates? Not really. Nothing about DeSantis, Lopez-Cantera or Jolly would have kept rural or suburban whites at home. Nothing to scare away the activists or the important donors. And there wasn't much to point to the older and still firmly GOP Cubans staying away from the GOP candidates either, especially since Cruz was still making a race of it while TNVolunteer was making his confident predictions.

There was never as much in Murphy as the forum had hoped there was, too. Winning in a swing district against one of the most toxic politicians in the nation isn't a great achievement and he didn't really bring much else to the table. A generic D doesn't win in Florida by just being generic; there were no particular groups he appealed to more than average. Nothing that made him the inevitable juggernaut of TNVolunteer's fever dreams. I have yet to see any reason why any of the other GOP candidates, with the FLGOP at their back, wouldn't be doing the same 4 or 5 points better than Trump that Rubio is. Even Rubio's approval ratings don't back up his prediction; based on those from when he got back into the race he was nothing special and still isn't.

He made a guess based on literally nothing. Circumstances changed; the Powers That Be wanted DeSantis and Jolly to stay in the House, Lopez-Cantera was really just in it to raise name recognition, and the national party decided they'd be able to raise more money with Rubio than the others anyway. Rubio being forced back into the race was never inevitable and never because "only he could stop Murphy from winning in a landslide." This isn't true and won't be true no matter how many times he says it. If you think he somehow DID know things without a shred of evidence I recommend you get his lottery numbers after all.

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't know if it was posted before but the miami-herald (which seemingly has been rubio-friendly in the past) endorses Murphy after the debate.

http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article109081832.html

[Fargobison]

Rubio and Murphy tied at 46% in Dade County Poll...

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-dc34-d2de-a7ff-deb70ae00000

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rubio and Murphy tied at 46% in Dade County Poll...

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-dc34-d2de-a7ff-deb70ae00000

I guess that's why the DSCC pulled out. If Rubio wins Miami Dade he's probably in the mid 40s in Palm Beach and in the mid to high 30s in Broward, which probably equals a double digit statewide victory.

[ZuWo]

Polls suggest Rubio is overperforming Trump by a lot so I expect his margin of victory to end up in the high single digits.

[DavidB.]

Polls suggest Rubio is overperforming Trump by a lot so I expect his margin of victory to end up in the high single digits.

If Hillary wins Florida by 4 or 5, Rubio's margin of victory isn't going to be in the high single digits. He isn't overperforming Trump by more than 7 or 8. This is still going to be close.

[Kingpoleon]

If Rubio wins by 4% or less, hopefully this gets egg on the DSCC's face.

[Blackacre]

If Rubio wins by 4% or less, hopefully this gets egg on the DSCC's face.

To play devil's advocate, if Kander/Ross/Cortez Mastro win by smaller margins (considering that's where the DSCC is sending that money) then it will have been worth it. 3 Senators is better than 1.

However, if Rubio goes on to become President after this, egg meet face

[Fargobison]

Murphy bails on Univision debate...

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/fight-over-translators-a-sticking-point-for-spanish-language-senate-debate-106617

[Fargobison]

Looks like Murphy has stepped in it again...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/25/bullshter-of-the-day-patrick-murphy-for-denying-his-trump-connections-and-getting-caught/