FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[publicunofficial]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.


Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

[publicunofficial]

Businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who was Crist's 2014 running mate, will announce for FL-26 against Carlos Curbelo on Monday.

Taddeo has previously ran for Congress, getting 42.1% against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in 2008.

[publicunofficial]

Barring a Bush/Rubio nomination, I inclined to think Murphy is the favorite now.

[publicunofficial]

Uh, Murphy is certainly not the favorite here. This is still a Toss-up lol. But maybe his coattails will propel Hillary to victory in FL

I'm not saying it's Lean D or anything. But if the race is Patrick Murphy vs. CLC, I'm putting my money on Murphy. I like his odds against a potential George LeMieux or (lol) Vern Buchanan candidacy as well.

That being said, Ron DeSantis or Tom Rooney would make things interesting.

[publicunofficial]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

Who was the third one that elected not to run? Adam Putnam hasn't announced one way or the other just yet, so that makes only two cabinet members declining so far (Bondi and Atwater).

Putnam has never come up in discussions of possible candidates because he is the one who most clearly wants to run for Governor in 2018.

[publicunofficial]

I'd say CLC and DeSantis keep this in the toss-up/tilt R range, while Rooney would move it to Lean R.

Is Rooney still interested?

DeSantis is a Tea Partier who consistently underperforms in the competitive areas of his district. He's never ran a competitive race. He's probably the worst of the candidates that are still looking at the race.

[publicunofficial]

I think CLC is underestimated. This guy has the lowest name recognition of all Republicans in FL and still only trails by 2 or so. I think he would do well against Murphy. And yes, the fact that he is Hispanic will also help him.

There's a reason there's only two current Senators whose previous job was Lt. Governor. It's a bad job to launch a campaign from, especially in a state like Florida were the Lt. Gov is elected with the Governor.

The best advantage CLC has is his name.

[publicunofficial]

With Bondi and Atwater out, is it possible Weatherford might jump in? Rubio himself jumped from Speaker to Senator and as far as I know, Weatherford has made a name for himself in the FL GOP.

Tampa Bay Times mentions Weatherford in their post-Atwater write-up.

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Doesn't sound very interested.

[publicunofficial]

DeSantis set to announce in the next day or two.

Not that I don't believe you, but what is your source?

Emily Cahn on Twitter.

[publicunofficial]

Both Sabato and Rothenberg have moved Florida to Toss-Up. As has Charlie Cook.

[publicunofficial]

Martin County School Board member Rebecca Negron (R) has declared for FL-18. 2014 nominee Carl Domino (R) is likely to follow.

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis (Will decide "in next few weeks", supported by Club for Growth, Freedomworks, Tea Party Express)
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera ("95% there", won't announce till end of legislative session)
-Rep. Tom Rooney (Meeting with the NRSC on Thursday)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Vern Buchanan (Interested)
-Former Sen. George LeMieux (Interested)
-Former Senate President Don Gaetz ("Looking at the race")
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford (Doesn't sound interested, hasn't said no yet)
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)


Out of all of these guys, I'd bet on DeSantis being the most likely to win the nomination. Rooney however would shake things up if he ran, and would be the strongest possible GOP nominee IMO. CLC will run, but I doubt he wins the primary. Jolly would be interesting, but he's a bit too liberal to win a primary (He supports same-sex marriage). Vern Buchanan is wealthy, but his ethics issues will sink him in a statewide race. Dennis Ross has been mentioned, but I doubt he enters and I heavily doubt he'll be the nominee if he does. I also doubt Weatherford runs.

As for the rest; Yoho would be the worst possible candidate, Don Gaetz is a nobody, and George LeMieux couldn't compete in a primary against f**king Connie Mack IV.


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested, might just be extorting committee assignments)


I'm predicting Patrick Murphy vs. Ron DeSantis for the final match-up.

[publicunofficial]

At this point (disregarding CLC, whose backing seems thin), it looks like it'll be a battle between Jolly and DeSantis for the soul of the RPOF.

I think Rooney is more likely to run and more likely to be competitive than Jolly. I hope Jolly runs to open up his seat, but I doubt it.

[publicunofficial]

Actually, on Grayson's twitter page (iirc) he mentioned that he was encouraged by the support he's receiving about a possible run, so I'm pegging him as likely to run.

He's certainly talking about it, but I think he's smart enough to realize he's be giving up a safe seat for a suicide run. As I said, I'm going with the theory that he'll keep saying he's interested and thinking of running until Ben Ray Lujan or whoever gives him something he wants.

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis (Will decide "in next few weeks", supported by Club for Growth, Freedomworks, Tea Party Express)
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera ("95% there", won't announce till end of legislative session)
-Rep. Tom Rooney (Meeting with the NRSC on Thursday)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Vern Buchanan (Interested)
-Former Sen. George LeMieux (Interested)
-Former Senate President Don Gaetz ("Looking at the race")
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Out of all of these guys, I'd bet on DeSantis being the most likely to win the nomination. Rooney however would shake things up if he ran, and would be the strongest possible GOP nominee IMO. CLC will run, but I doubt he wins the primary. Jolly would be interesting, but he's a bit too liberal to win a primary (He supports same-sex marriage). Vern Buchanan is wealthy, but his ethics issues will sink him in a statewide race. Dennis Ross has been mentioned, but I doubt he enters and I heavily doubt he'll be the nominee if he does. I also doubt Weatherford runs.

As for the rest; Yoho would be the worst possible candidate, Don Gaetz is a nobody, and George LeMieux couldn't compete in a primary against f**king Connie Mack IV.


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested, might just be extorting committee assignments)


I'm predicting Patrick Murphy vs. Ron DeSantis for the final match-up.

Weatherford is out, citing his several young children being a priority.

[publicunofficial]

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Still bluffing, I assure you.

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis (Will decide "in next few weeks", supported by Club for Growth, Freedomworks, Tea Party Express)
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera ("95% there", won't announce till end of legislative session)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Vern Buchanan (Interested)
-Former Sen. George LeMieux (Interested)
-Rep. Jeff Miller (Mentioned as possible candidate)
-Former Senate President Don Gaetz ("Looking at the race")
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)
-Rep. Curt Clawson (Won't say he isn't running, interested)
-Fmr. Attorney General Bill McCollum (Interested, leaning towards a run)
-Rep. Tom Rooney
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested)


I'm predicting Patrick Murphy vs. Ron DeSantis for the final match-up.

Update: Tom Rooney is out..

[publicunofficial]

1. Swing State - Florida is the most important swing state, and if she wants to pick someone from that state, there are no statewide office holders except Nelson, who is 5 years older than Hillary. Schultz is the highest ranking Congresscritter otherwise.

2. The Jewish vote. Democrats are hemorrhaging the Jewish vote which is critical in the state.

3. Youth. Schultz is still relatively young which would balance out Hillary's age.

4. You have no idea who she'd appeal to because she's never run a statewide race. She's always done well in her district.

5. Cancer survivor. Excellent personal story of overcoming adversity.

6. If Lincoln Chafee wins the nomination, she'd be an excellent pick. Even waltermitty agrees.

The fact that you refer to WalterMitty as if he is a wise sage is the dumbest part of your post.

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera ("95% there", won't announce till end of legislative session)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Former Sen. George LeMieux (Interested)
-Rep. Jeff Miller (Mentioned as possible candidate)
-Former Senate President Don Gaetz ("Looking at the race")
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)
-Rep. Curt Clawson (Won't say he isn't running, interested)
-Fmr. Attorney General Bill McCollum (Interested, leaning towards a run)
-Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Rep. Tom Rooney
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested)

[publicunofficial]

I don't think the Florida Democrats losing streak has anything to do with how liberal or conservative the candidates they run are. Bad campaigns are bad campaigns. And Grayson is much more likely to run a bad campaign than Murphy is.


There's a very annoying contingent of posters on Atlas: Hillary supporters who are constantly buttmad that people call her liberalism into question, and to counteract that they whine and moan any time a conservative Democrat is getting support.

[publicunofficial]

There's a very annoying contingent of posters on Atlas: Hillary supporters who are constantly buttmad that people call her liberalism into question, and to counteract that they whine and moan any time a conservative Democrat is getting support.

I'm sorry pointing out hypocrisy annoys you. There's no logic whatsoever in bitching about Hillary being a "neoliberal right winger" or whatever then supporting Patrick Murphy who is objectively to her right on basically every issue. Florida is not that different from the country as a whole in terms of the D-R margin, so that excuse can't be used like it could be for someone like Manchin.

Granted, Clinton1996 made a good point in that Grayson would likely run a destructive scorched earth campaign whereas Hillary's opponents won't, but that would explain anti-Grayson views, not so much pro-Murphy views. Secondly, many of the Hillary haters would love it if a candidate ran an intensively negative campaign against her, so it's still an inconsistency.

For the record, I am a Hillary supporter who also supports Sanders run. I want to see Hillary challenged not because I dislike her or want someone else, but because the presidential primaries are very important events in which many issues get attention that wouldn't otherwise. There's a big difference between state primaries and national ones, I know you know that.

Also, equating Florida to the nation at large and saying they are just about equally liberal is misleading. Surely you recognize the difference being willing to vote for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, who while liberal are also restrained and pragmatic, and electing just any old Democrat.

And I cannot stress this enough: Alan Grayson will not lose because he's too liberal. Does everyone forget that he's involved in a messy divorce? That he called his opponent a member of the Taliban? If Alan Grayson were a Republican, I'd be salivating for him to get in the race. And at the same time, if Murphy were a Republican I'd be very scared of him.

I'm responding to you and not to Beet, because you seem more honest in your complaints whereas Beet is mostly a contrarian troll.

[publicunofficial]

There's a very annoying contingent of posters on Atlas: Hillary supporters who are constantly buttmad that people call her liberalism into question, and to counteract that they whine and moan any time a conservative Democrat is getting support.

I'm sorry pointing out hypocrisy annoys you. There's no logic whatsoever in bitching about Hillary being a "neoliberal right winger" or whatever then supporting Patrick Murphy who is objectively to her right on basically every issue. Florida is not that different from the country as a whole in terms of the D-R margin, so that excuse can't be used like it could be for someone like Manchin.

Granted, Clinton1996 made a good point in that Grayson would likely run a destructive scorched earth campaign whereas Hillary's opponents won't, but that would explain anti-Grayson views, not so much pro-Murphy views. Secondly, many of the Hillary haters would love it if a candidate ran an intensively negative campaign against her, so it's still an inconsistency.

For the record, I am a Hillary supporter who also supports Sanders run. I want to see Hillary challenged not because I dislike her or want someone else, but because the presidential primaries are very important events in which many issues get attention that wouldn't otherwise. There's a big difference between state primaries and national ones, I know you know that.

Also, equating Florida to the nation at large and saying they are just about equally liberal is misleading. Surely you recognize the difference being willing to vote for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, who while liberal are also restrained and pragmatic, and electing just any old Democrat.

And I cannot stress this enough: Alan Grayson will not lose because he's too liberal. Does everyone forget that he's involved in a messy divorce? That he called his opponent a member of the Taliban? If Alan Grayson were a Republican, I'd be salivating for him to get in the race. And at the same time, if Murphy were a Republican I'd be very scared of him.

I'm responding to you and not to Beet, because you seem more honest in your complaints whereas Beet is mostly a contrarian troll.

Well then in that case, I'm not referring to you specifically.

As for your second point, I'm not really sure what you mean by that. Can you elaborate?

And yes, I agree Grayson is an awful candidate in many ways. For the record, I do support Murphy, simply because he seems most electable and I don't think Grayson/DWS could win statewide barring a miracle or a huge wave. I tend to agree with the guy who said Castor would be a decent statewide candidate without the blue dog baggage, but she's probably not running.

Castor would be great, but she has never really seemed interested so Murphy it is.

What I meant in my second point was that when Florida goes blue in Presidential elections, it's usually because the Democrats have compromised or underplayed certain issues. As is tradition in Presidential politics.

Also, saying Florida is about as liberal as America as a whole means less when you remember that A) America is pretty conservative and B ) Grayson or DWS probably can't get elected as President either.

[publicunofficial]

Freedom fighters

Patrick Murphy (FL-18) introduced a bill to the House that would stop seismic wave testing for oil, being co-sponsored by Gwen Graham (FL-2), Corrine Brown (FL-5), Bill Posey (FL-8), Alcee Hastings (FL-20), Lois Frankel (FL-22), and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (FL-24).

Meanwhile Alan Grayson has millions of dollars in offshore accounts. Who's the real progressive?

[publicunofficial]

Quick re-cap of the potential candidates on both sides:

GOP:
-Rep. Ron DeSantis
-Lt. Gov Carlos Lopez-Cantera (Likely running, won't announce till end of legislative session)
-Rep. Jeff Miller (Interested, looks to be running)
-Fmr. Attorney General Bill McCollum (Interested, leaning towards a run)
-Rep. David Jolly (Will decide around June or July, after his wedding)
-Rep. Dennis Ross (Reportedly "interested")
-Rep. Ted Yoho (Mentioned frequently, hasn't said anything)
-Rep. Curt Clawson (Won't say he isn't running, interested)

-Rep. Vern Buchanan
-Former Florida Senate President Don Gaetz
-Former Senator George LeMiuex
-Rep. Tom Rooney
-Former House Speaker Will Weatherford


Dems:
-Rep. Patrick Murphy
-Attorney Pam Keith
-Rep. Alan Grayson (Interested)

Don Gaetz is out, possibly indicating that Jeff Miller will run for Senate (Gaetz would be the front-runner for an open FL-01).

George LeMieux will also not run, to the disappointment of no one.

[publicunofficial]

Would McCollum fare well in the general election or is he just too old by now?

The one poll we've had of the primary had McCollum in a strong lead, but that's probably due to name recognition more than anything else. If he got in, I would see him polling well at the start before falling behind DeSantis/CLC/Miller as they become more well-known.