FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/03/23/patrick-murphy-florida-senate/

Endorsed

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bondi NOT Running: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2015/04/-no-pam-bondi-for-senate-campaign-in-2016.html

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

Who was the third one that elected not to run? Adam Putnam hasn't announced one way or the other just yet, so that makes only two cabinet members declining so far (Bondi and Atwater).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all three cabinet members out, this is shaping up as a best-case scenario for Dems - CLC doesn't strike me as a particularly strong candidate, and he'll be going up against the best the Dems could put up for this seat.

Who was the third one that elected not to run? Adam Putnam hasn't announced one way or the other just yet, so that makes only two cabinet members declining so far (Bondi and Atwater).

I haven't heard anyone mention Putnam as a serious candidate for Senate. He's made it clear that he wants to run for governor.

He's still listed as 'potential' on Wikipedia, for whatever that is worth.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Run Alan Run!

You guys actually want CLC in the senate? Grayson would lose the general by at least 15, no questions asked.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If FL Dems nominate Grayson, the party should probably just disband. Nothing of value would be lost. Nelson can run as an independent.

You'd be permanently conceding 10 house seats...

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If FL Dems nominate Grayson, the party should probably just disband. Nothing of value would be lost. Nelson can run as an independent.

You'd be permanently conceding 10 house seats...

Even in the absence of a Democrat, FL-05 is not going to send a Republican to Congress.

They'll send a green then. So it's still technically the dem party conceding a seat, even though the green would probably caucus with the Dems.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Basically a run-down on all of the candidates

GOP
-Vern Buchanan (FL-16)
-Tom Rooney (FL-17)
-Ron DeSantis (FL-6)
-Jeff Miller (FL-1)
-Curt Clawson (FL-19)
-Tom Jolly (FL-13)
-Carlos Lopez-Cantera (LG)
-George LeMieux (Fmr. Sen.)

DEM
-Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
-Alan Grayson (FL-9)

No surprises if you've been actively reading this thread.

David Jolly, not Tom.  And why is Clawson considering? He wouldn't win a statewide race barring a 1984-style climate.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Basically a run-down on all of the candidates

GOP
-Vern Buchanan (FL-16)
-Tom Rooney (FL-17)
-Ron DeSantis (FL-6)
-Jeff Miller (FL-1)
-Curt Clawson (FL-19)
-Tom Jolly (FL-13)
-Carlos Lopez-Cantera (LG)
-George LeMieux (Fmr. Sen.)

DEM
-Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
-Alan Grayson (FL-9)

No surprises if you've been actively reading this thread.

Wow, look at all the Florida congresscritters. It's like a party! I can't help but notice FL-23 isn't on this list. I have no idea who the representative for that district is, but whoever it is must be a massive loser.

She's not going to need your sh**tty ass Senate seat when she's elected as the next VPOTUS next November.

As if Clinton has any reason to put Schultz on the ticket:

- Can she lock down FL? Nope, she's only won election in a single congressional district. Thinking Schultz can lock down FL for Hillary is just as foolish as Republicans' 2012 belief that Ryan can lock down WI.

- Gender? Well, Hillary's a woman too, so that alone isn't enough for her to pick Schultz...

- Appeal to moderates? Nope, she's hated by independents and republicans.

- Appeal to liberals? Nope, some of them blame her for 2010/14.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

1. Swing State - Florida is the most important swing state, and if she wants to pick someone from that state, there are no statewide office holders except Nelson, who is 5 years older than Hillary. Schultz is the highest ranking Congresscritter otherwise.

2. The Jewish vote. Democrats are hemorrhaging the Jewish vote which is critical in the state.

3. Youth. Schultz is still relatively young which would balance out Hillary's age.

4. You have no idea who she'd appeal to because she's never run a statewide race. She's always done well in her district.

5. Cancer survivor. Excellent personal story of overcoming adversity.

6. If Lincoln Chafee wins the nomination, she'd be an excellent pick. Even waltermitty agrees.

LOLOL. Hillary can win without Florida without any problem at all.

Democrats already do well enough with the Jewish vote, Hillary doesn't need the help.

Her district is Safe D, she wouldn't lose there unless she turned out to be a serial killer.

Enough of the Chafee nonsense.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Are you people actually taking Beet's post in this thread seriously?

Beet has expressed unironic support for Schultz many times, so it isn't really that far off that he's being serious.

And that's the concern. The most hated Democrat, period, whom basically got you guys slaughtered in 2010/14, does not deserve any support.

Tim Kaine was the DNC head in 2010.

Exactly, and look at how many people want Tim Kaine for VP! Unironically!

Well, Tim Kaine makes the ticket slightly more generic since he's a bland white guy, and having been elected statewide twice, he can actually be good for locking down Virginia. That's why people overlook 2010.

And hey, in the end, at least Kaine was able to keep hold on the Senate and get embattled incumbents reelected in CO, NV, WV, CA, and WA. Schultz was only able to get Shaheen reelected due to her opponent being Scott Brown, and Warner only got reelected because Republicans didn't spend any money there due to misleading junk polls. Every other senate democrat who won was in absolutely no danger of losing.

Schultz has only won election in her safe D congressional district that would probably elect Ed Fitzgerald, is anything but bland, and wouldn't win Clinton a single extra vote.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Guys, please don't act as if Murphy would beat CLC by 20 points and Grayson would lose by the same margin. CLC and Grayson are not to be underestimated and Murphy is not inevitable.

We are not saying that. It will be close, but I suspect Murphy could beat CLC 52-48%.

That's what I was thking. I can't help but wonder if the gay rumors will hurt Murphy in the general in a state like Florida.

Didn't they elect Charlie Crist?

Not anymore.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I love Alan Grayson!  Who is this Murphy guy, anyway?

Rep. Murphy is a conservadem representing a 52% (I think) Romney district (FL-18). He defeated Fmr. Rep. Allen West in a 2012 upset, and won reelection with 60% of the vote in 2014. Florida definitely has an atlas blue tilt at the senate/gubernatorial levels, and more than a generic D is needed to win. Murphy seems like someone who would make the race Toss-Up/Tilt D.

Grayson, on the other hand, is only in the house because his district (FL-9) was drawn specifically for him and his voters in the 2010 redistricting. (Grayson lost reelection in a far more conservative district, the old FL-10, in the 2010 midterms to Rep. Daniel Webster (R). He returned to the house in 2012 via the specifically-drawn-for-him 9th district.) He is a clear liberal stalwart who makes no attempts to appear moderate and has no credible way of convincing enough moderate voters to go for him. Florida is not New Mexico or Nevada no matter how much Grayson may think it is - CLC or any competent nominee would dispatch Grayson comfortably, no questions asked. The democrats' only real chance is with Murphy.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Amen! Amen. The DSCC should learn from the Debbie Wasserman Schultz. We want a primary, not a coronation.

I also assumed that you wanted to win. I guess not.

Nothing wrong with a primary, it's good preparation for the GE. As long as Murphy wins the primary, I don't  really care about Grayson being in the race.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't understand why there seems to be such an overwhelming rush to push the Democrats to coronate a guy who votes with Republicans more than Democrats on crucial votes without even a primary, yet when it comes to the national election, the 11th most liberal Senator is somehow too centrist according to many people here. Florida and America aren't that different. In 2012, Obama did only 1.11% better in America than in Florida. I think I'm being the rational and consistent one here.

Did you even look at the results before making your assertion

Florida 2012: Obama +0.9%
America 2012: Obama +3.9%

That's a three point difference, not a one point difference.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's no logic whatsoever in bitching about Hillary being a "neoliberal right winger" or whatever then supporting Patrick Murphy who is objectively to her right on basically every issue.

Precisely. Patrick Murphy is a far right winger who donated $2,300 to Romney in 2008. And remember that Romney ran to the right of McCain in that election.

Also let's not forget Murphy literally would not have a political career at all if he was not born into a filthy rich family. Even all of his sickening political positions aside, his entire career is the epitome of privilege.

So, you'd take CLC/DeSantis over Murphy? Grayson is not winning statewide, period.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Grayson's latest rhetoric, this time about his estranged wife: "Golddiggers gotta dig."

I heard that today. Lmao he is such a gaffe machine.

Lol he's awesome! I just donated $25 to his campaign.

Congratulations on wasting $25.

I can't wait to laugh at the Murphyslide you Grayson supporters will have to endure on primary election day.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bongino did a great job last cycle in a gerrymandered district and nearly pulled off a win. He's a fantastic candidate anywhere he decides to run.

Not if he's carpetbagging across the country.....

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bongino did a great job last cycle in a gerrymandered district and nearly pulled off a win. He's a fantastic candidate anywhere he decides to run.

Not if he's carpetbagging across the country.....

No, but what would FL-18 be if not for carpetbaggers =p

Point was that a candidate who moves from one state to another state just to run for a house seat is not going to win any hypothetically competitive district.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Between this and the PA poll, I wish we got polls that didn't have "undecided" leading both actual candidates.


Sestak is weak in polls because he isnt a high pofile candidate like Strickland. He will be fine. Murphy will win due to Clinton draw towards Latinos. He will also win due to unpopularity of Scott.

Because Scott's unpopularity cost him the election last year, right? Oh wait.....

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CLC announcing July 15.

Looking forward to Murphy giving this guy a nice spanking in 2016.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Can't wait til CLC gives Murphy a nice spanking.

Grayson is probably running and will announce next month.

Yay

Just how does one like Grayson AND CLC?!? One is more liberal than Elizabeth Warren, the other is a solid conservative.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Murphy is the PERFECT General Election candidate for Democrats in FL, and would be a slight favorite if he is nominated, and Rubio doesn't try to remain in his Senate seat if the Presidential race goes badly.  Grayson is a loose cannon; he's kind of the Democratic answer (in temperament) to B-1 Bob Dornan.  If liberals competed with conservatives in Talk Radio, Grayson would be the left's Rush Limbaugh.  None of that helps him as a Senate candidate.  Fortunately for Murphy, none of the GOP candidates for Rubio's seat are particularly impressive.

Even if Rubio were to abandon his presidential race and choose to run for reelection, it's not like the field would automatically clear for him. Sure, Lopez-Cantera would probably go, but Miller has blind ambition, DeSantis would attack Rubio from the right, and Jolly would stay in since in the event he narrowly wins a 4 way primary (Rubio, himself, Miller, DeSantis), a Senate race would be a lot easier than trying to hold a redrawn, less republican version of FL-13.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He would probably clear the field, and FL Dems winning the governorship isn't happening unless Nelson goes for it.