FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Dave Aronberg is the strongest of the electeds, but he was wise not to run here since he's still basically a respectable (if unremarkable) generic D from Palm Beach County.  Joe Abruzzo is an especially awful fit for this district and should be hoping Ted Deutch runs for something else before the next redistricting.  The rest of the Democratic elects aren't much better.  

Our best bet is to run a respected local businessman or physician from St. Lucie County (ideally one who both can and is willing to self-fund) and hope we get lucky.  If by some miracle, said recruit turns out to be another Murphy, they'd have a narrow path to victory against a weak Republican by narrowly winning/losing Palm Beach County, getting at least 42% in Martin, and running up the score in St. Lucie (or at least getting the 55% Murphy got there in 2012).  Failing that, the seat is gone.  

If this sounds like Murphy's victory in 2012, that's because it is.  He basically showed the minimum benchmarks in each county that a Democrat needs to hit in order to win by a razor-thin margin in this district.  If the Republican does everything wrong and the Democrat does everything right then we could keep the district in a neutral year with a little bit of luck.  But there is no margin for error and this seat is probably gonna be a Republican pickup.  

TL;DR: Can the Democrats hold this seat without Murphy?  Sure, there is a very narrow (but realistic) path to victory under the right circumstances.  Will they hold it?  Almost certainly not for a variety of reasons.  And that's without getting into the FL Democratic Party's special brand of complete incompetance.  They're like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football except instead of someone yanking it away at the last second, they keep tripping because they forgot to tie their shoes.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

considering Grayson is Jewish and Pro-Israel...this shouldnt be surprising

Generally people who are pro-Israel take positions that increase Israel's security, so it's rather odd that Grayson would oppose the Iran deal

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

considering Grayson is Jewish and Pro-Israel...this shouldnt be surprising

Generally people who are pro-Israel take positions that increase Israel's security, so it's rather odd that Grayson would oppose the Iran deal

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. " - Daniel Patrick Moynihan.

I agree, maybe it's time you started using the same facts as the rest of the world

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Grayson is really the Democrat Akin. Not because of his ideology, but because he's just a ticking time bomb of dickish things to say, and his general baggage.

I mean, when you get to the point where the Democrat (Grayson) is so bad that I wouldn't even consider voting for him if I lived in the state...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Might this be the "big announcement" he mentioned yesterday (60 Minutes appearance)?  Or is it yet to come?
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/david-jolly-to-appear-on-sundays-60-minutes/2274299

No idea. I didn't go into the office today since everyone's down in Hollywood for the conclave and the other guys decided to make it a three day weekend. I was hoping to have some back office gossip to report .

On a different note, I've been meaning to ask you something.  It seems like in either Tampa or St. Petersburg (I forget which one) the Scientologists seem to exert a huge level of influence over local Republican politics.  Do you have any idea why that is?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If you knew about Jolly's divorce and remarriage like I do, you wouldn't be so quick to call him a FF. But adultery is only bad when Democrats or the Donald does it

To say nothing of his ties to Scientology.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.

This scandal is mostly bad for his parents, who may have broken finance laws. It would give his opponents ammo to attack him.

Won't matter then.  Weren't there domestic violence rumors with Murphy or am I thinking of someone else? 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.

This scandal is mostly bad for his parents, who may have broken finance laws. It would give his opponents ammo to attack him.

Won't matter then.  Weren't there domestic violence rumors with Murphy or am I thinking of someone else? 

Don't be so sure. The domestic violence allegations happened a few years ago and most voters haven't heard of them. On the other hand, 74% of voters still don't have an opinion of Murphy in that AIF poll earlier in the month. First hearing of a senate candidate through a scandal (even a minor one) creates a bad first impression and makes Grayson look better. If you're a voter going into the booth and you think BOTH guys are crooked, why not choose the one who will really stick it to the Republicans?

Several articles about Murphy controversies.
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/fdp-now-getting-rid-10k-al-rashid-donation
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/patrick-murphy-donates-contributions-from-friend-who-pleaded-guilty-to/2277613
Apparently he gave away some money he got from a friend who was later found guilty of domestic violence.

My mistake. I thought X was making a backhanded comparison to Grayson's domestic violence issues with that "or am I thinking of someone else" to imply that Murphy's problems weren't a big deal.

Ah, it was Grayson who had the domestic violence issues.  My bad.  My point was if explaining the scandal takes too long and/or too complex an explanation, it won't matter.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.

Mommy and daddy are cheating! They hate all non-Dumbocrats, and they hate Florida too!

Whose mom and dad?  Doesn't even make sense.  The second sentence is just so I'll do you a favor and ignore it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jolly says all signs are pointing to him running again

YEEEEEEEESSS!!!!!!!

Rubio's gonna lose to Murphy, you know that, right?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rubio's gonna lose to Murphy, you know that, right?

I will bookmark this and quote you on Nov. 9. Then we'll see which one of us got it right   Anyway, assuming Rubio runs, this is a Tossup/tilt R race IMO, regardless of whether Grayson or Murphy wins the Democratic primary. Grayson is vastly underrated, while Murphy is really overrated.

I guess Rubio is banking on the Happy Florida Men vote.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Maybe the FL GOP wants Jolly out to help them unite behind one candidate (plus he's to the left of DeSantis and CLC) and I think he does have a small chance against Crist in FL-13 (though definately an underdog). They really need to just focus behind one candidate, IMO.
Also bumping these up from the previous page:
Murphy allegedly traded donations for favors.

He also misstated his CPA experience, according to a report.

Yes, yes, we know you don't like Murphy.  You don't have to spam the thread by bumping links every time it goes to a new page.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Rubio runs for reelection because of this, he is officially a lower, scummier form of life than Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

I think it's more likely that he uses this attack as an excuse to relaunch his career in the form of a gubernatorial campaign. I didn't think he'd run at all in 2018 until the recent Senate chatter, and that doesn't change the fact that Putnam will have the money, the conservative base, some pretty solid unused research, and the backing (unofficially) of the RPOF itself plus pretty much all of the row officers and most of the non South Florida legislators.

Rubio isn't going to be living a mile up Brevard Street from me in January 2019, but he might try for it. If he does, he's more nakedly ambitious and stupid than I thought.

This.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I literally can't wait for him to lose the senate primary to Beruff after the RNSC gets everyone else out for him.

Rubio will win the primary and start off with a meaningless general election lead purely do name-recognition.  Fortunately, Murphy should still beat him in the general.  I thought Rubio was beatable even before his Presidential campaign with the right candidate (he always struck me as a paper-tiger with too conservative a voting record for a Senator who isn't an institution in FL politics) and given that 1) the Democrats have an excellent candidate here for a change, 2) Rubio's brand has probably been irreparably damaged (especially in Florida), 3) Donald Trump will be on the ballot, and 4) Republican turnout will likely be unusually low this year, I certainly think that now.  Honestly, I think the Republicans would've been better off going with DeSantis.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So you celebrate when Rubio doesn't run because you're afraid of him beating your golden child Murphy, but now that he's likely getting back in you're acting all cocky. Which is it??

That'd be a great comeback if I had ever said I was afraid Rubio would beat Murphy if the former ran for re-election.  Alas, I never any such thing, but thanks for playing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Did anyone other than Adam T and I actually read the article?  There really isn't anything that damaging in it.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

GOP smells blood in critical FL Senate race

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, generally political parties attack the other party's nominees in competitive races.  What's your point?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Huckabee won't clear the field with the RPOF's help-I worry about a President Trump or the RNC jumping in to push him because he's a big name. Sorta like Rubio seeking reelection-DeSantis could have kept on going against him, and perhaps even beat Rubio, but the RNC and Trump pushed him out.

Huckabee wouldn't be able to clear a field of candidates considering he was a politician from Arkansas. Plus, big names in Florida like Adam Putnam and Jeff Atwater are likely planning to run for Governor and could defeat Huckabee.

If Huckabee is actually interested in holding political office in Florida, though, running against Bill Nelson in 2018 for his Senate seat could provide a better opportunity from him. As I mentioned above, a lot of the rising stars in Florida are looking at running for Governor in 2018, so Republicans may be looking for a big name to run against Nelson for the Senate seat. Huckabee could take advantage of that, and with a President Clinton likely being unpopular, maybe he would have a shot at winning (but he'd likely still be the underdog against Nelson).

Atwater is in my view a relatively bland candidate compared to Putnam. I don't think the gubernatorial race will attract as many candidates as the Senate race, especially if Nelson retires, which is unlikely.

Luckily for you, Trump won't be President.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Professor Wulfric, if Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton had a baby, would said baby be either a socialist, a capitalist, or a mulatto-type kid?

Socialist. He would be Sanders's son and is therefore related to Sanders. Clinton would remain a capitalist as long as she did not marry Sanders.

How do we know you're not related to a Socialist?