FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Dave Aronberg is the strongest of the electeds, but he was wise not to run here since he's still basically a respectable (if unremarkable) generic D from Palm Beach County.  Joe Abruzzo is an especially awful fit for this district and should be hoping Ted Deutch runs for something else before the next redistricting.  The rest of the Democratic elects aren't much better.  

Our best bet is to run a respected local businessman or physician from St. Lucie County (ideally one who both can and is willing to self-fund) and hope we get lucky.  If by some miracle, said recruit turns out to be another Murphy, they'd have a narrow path to victory against a weak Republican by narrowly winning/losing Palm Beach County, getting at least 42% in Martin, and running up the score in St. Lucie (or at least getting the 55% Murphy got there in 2012).  Failing that, the seat is gone.  

If this sounds like Murphy's victory in 2012, that's because it is.  He basically showed the minimum benchmarks in each county that a Democrat needs to hit in order to win by a razor-thin margin in this district.  If the Republican does everything wrong and the Democrat does everything right then we could keep the district in a neutral year with a little bit of luck.  But there is no margin for error and this seat is probably gonna be a Republican pickup.  

TL;DR: Can the Democrats hold this seat without Murphy?  Sure, there is a very narrow (but realistic) path to victory under the right circumstances.  Will they hold it?  Almost certainly not for a variety of reasons.  And that's without getting into the FL Democratic Party's special brand of complete incompetence.  They're like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football except instead of someone yanking it away at the last second, they keep tripping because they forgot to tie their shoes.

Good post. Joe Abruzzo, as you noted, is a bad fit for the district. I have an idea for a candidate who can do as well as Patrick Murphy and hold the seat. Hint: I ate at his pizza joint a few months ago....

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who was Crist's 2014 running mate, will announce for FL-26 against Carlos Curbelo on Monday.

Taddeo has previously ran for Congress, getting 42.1% against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in 2008.

I was wondering the other day about her political future. I didn't believe she had one .

Sabato moves Murphy's house seat to a Toss-Up:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/maneuvers-in-2016-senate-races-necessitate-one-ratings-changein-the-house/

This is basically the only bad thing about running Murphy - We might just get another Allen West in the house.

The most likely candidates on both sides are fairly bland. No one as insane as West or as interesting as Murphy.

Personally I expect Republicans to take FL-18. I'll be less pessimistic if the Democrats get the candidate they want, or even their 3rd choice.

Fortunately, FL-18 includes parts of Palm Beach, which is one of the few places where FL Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench, but unfortunately, 60% of the district lives outside the district's slice of Palm Beach. RRH has cited (Republican) Sheriff Bob Crowder, who challenged West from the left in the 2012 primaries - my preferred candidate would be Adam Fetterman, but that's unlikely.

I have my obvious choice, but I suspect he is done with politics. Carl Domino has been talking about running, but all the people I have talked too in the PBC GOP have pretty much given up on him. Joe Negron's wife is considering a run, for some reason. I also heard businessman Gary Uber, former 2014 candidate Calvin Turnquest, and a few other names mentioned.

On the Democratic side, all of the candidates come from Palm Beach County, which is a small corner in the district. I don't see any of them, besides maybe Dave Aronberg (who is not running) as a strong candidate.

Is it just me, or does Murphy's district have a poor bench for Republicans?

The bench is bad, but not necessarily weak. Joe Negron, who is more interested in being the Senate President, would make a strong candidate. Another unlikely but strong candidate would be Adam Hasner, who I campaigned for in 2012 and who flirted with a bid in 2014. Pat Rooney might be another strong candidate. Hell, maybe even Dave Weldon might attempt (another) comeback!

As long as Carl Domino doesn't give it another go, the seat is likely an Republican hold.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

Yes, state house or state senate. Not directly jumping to a federal race.

Depending on where she is from, I might suspect she could even be a potential congressional candidate. Only if the district is right for her, of course.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

We've got another Democratic candidate -- Pam Keith

She's been in for quite a while, if I'm not mistaken.

And I still have no idea who she is. She has an attractive bio (the kind of candidate the FDP should be seeking to recruit), but she should probably seek some sort of other office first.

Yes, state house or state senate. Not directly jumping to a federal race.

Depending on where she is from, I might suspect she could even be a potential congressional candidate. Only if the district is right for her, of course.

Northern Palm Beach. Seems like a great (by FDP standards) candidate for FL-18.

Yeah, I could see her winning in that district...and I have a feeling that is where she will eventually end up by November 2016.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

DeSantis set to announce in the next day or two.

Not that I don't believe you, but what is your source?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If FL Dems nominate Grayson, the party should probably just disband. Nothing of value would be lost. Nelson can run as an independent.

You'd be permanently conceding 10 house seats...

Even in the absence of a Democrat, FL-05 is not going to send a Republican to Congress.

FL-22 would elect Lois Frankel as an independent as well, I'd imagine. And Alcee Hastings would hold on.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Guys, please don't act as if Murphy would beat CLC by 20 points and Grayson would lose by the same margin. CLC and Grayson are not to be underestimated and Murphy is not inevitable.

We are not saying that. It will be close, but I suspect Murphy could beat CLC 52-48%.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Is Beet ok?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Is Beet ok?

I assure you guys, I am fine. One person suggesting DWS as VP is not the end of the world.

The end of the world? No. The end of serious discussion? Yes.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Guys, please don't act as if Murphy would beat CLC by 20 points and Grayson would lose by the same margin. CLC and Grayson are not to be underestimated and Murphy is not inevitable.

We are not saying that. It will be close, but I suspect Murphy could beat CLC 52-48%.

That's what I was thking. I can't help but wonder if the gay rumors will hurt Murphy in the general in a state like Florida.

I haven't heard any gay rumors about Murphy at all. He was arrested at a strip club for God's sake!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Guys, please don't act as if Murphy would beat CLC by 20 points and Grayson would lose by the same margin. CLC and Grayson are not to be underestimated and Murphy is not inevitable.

We are not saying that. It will be close, but I suspect Murphy could beat CLC 52-48%.

That's what I was thking. I can't help but wonder if the gay rumors will hurt Murphy in the general in a state like Florida.

Didn't they elect Charlie Crist?

Not anymore.

The gay rumors didn't effect Crist in a year when opposing gay marriage was still acceptable.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Buchanan not going to be in the race.

I'd be more surprised if he ran.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Dan Bongino, yeah the guy who almost won MD-06 last year, is considering running for FL-18.

Between the carpetbagging and being pretty far-right ideologically, I'd guess he'd be the Republican most likely to lose the general.

What is with it with FL-18 and losing northern candidates?? First Schlesinger, now this?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Noelle Nikpour will run in FL-22, not FL-18, if she does run (which is highly likely). You heard it from me first.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Grayson is probably running and will announce next month.

How likely is it that Grayson can Tea-Party (yes, I'm using it as a verb) Murphy from the left?

Not going to happen. As noted, Pat Murphy is pretty much respected by everyone.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Miller's run surprises me.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

lol giving up a safe house seat to run for a Senate race he's not going to win.

I disagree-Murphy is pretty well liked by Republicans, and DeSantis (who I am supporting FWIW) is a strong-but not perfect-candidate either.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

lol giving up a safe house seat to run for a Senate race he's not going to win.

I disagree-Murphy is pretty well liked by Republicans, and DeSantis (who I am supporting FWIW) is a strong-but not perfect-candidate either.

I'm talking about Miller, not Murphy or DeSantis. I think its likely DeSantis or Lopez-Cantera will get the Republican nomination.

Gotcha. Yeah, I don't know what the hell Miller is doing.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Miller has been out for weeks.

All this time I thought he was running! .

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

A hot rumor a while back - not sure how much credibility it still has - was that Rubio was interested in being in Tally in 2018.

There is no credibility to that. I believed it would happen until I talked to a bunch of my friends in the RPOF. Putnam is by far the favorite and Rubio would be stepping on some big toes if he ran. Rubio needs to lobby hard for the VP nomination-it is his only option left.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Tbh Rubio, rather understandably seems to have given up on the Senate. Unlike Cruz or Paul he never used it to crusade his points, and he's not in the mould of a senate dealer.

Pretty much. Rubio has a shot in 2016 and a shot in 2020, but after that he is old news. Another dud of a GOP rising star, as BRTD has recently mentioned.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'd be amazed if he ran. I don't think the current field is not anywhere close to being bad enough to require his entry.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

McCollum will have a decision next week.

I hope he doesn't run. His time passed nearly twenty years ago.