FL-SEN: Is Rubio about to bungle it?

[Dereich]

I don't think this has been posted yet, but the Lieutenant Governor Carlos Santos-Cantera is set to enter.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/article20369073.html

*Lopez-Cantera.

Excellent news! The Florida GOP ripping itself into pieces and blowing all its money on a Tea Party vs. establishment fight is just what we need to have a weak nominee to face Murphy.

Do you really see that happening? Lopez-Cantera is so new to the statewide scene and is such an unknown quantity he's not going to have much, if any, strong support at the start; I see him as being like LeMieux. Either he'll prove himself to be a fantastic campaigner and win by being a legitimately strong candidate or he'll be immediately eclipsed by the first real candidate to join and soon after drop out in disgrace. Nothing I can see leads me to believe he'd have any devoted partisans willing to fight on to the end.

[Dereich]

Murphy is further to the right than any Dem I've ever supported. I'd support someone like Murphy in a red state like Georgia or Mississippi, but Florida can do better.

That is exactly the same frame of mind that the FDP has had since the 90s.

[Dereich]

Frankly I don't see that CLC has any base at all. Scott's support came from chambers of commerce, anti-establishment tea party activists, and his own money. His relationship with the FLGOP establishment has always been a marriage of convenience and CLC can't depend on establishment support just from his Scott connection. He also can't rely on a local base; he's an upjumped property appraiser who Scott thought would look good on the ticket, he has no firm support even in Dade.

What I've been seeing CLC doing is rush around the state, trying to pull some of the same Scott base over for himself; he's spoken at quite a few chamber events up here and is trying to cite the administration's job numbers as his own accomplishment. However, even at THAT he's not doing a very good job. As someone who has basically never had to give speeches before, he's not good at it. He has no personality and can't compensate (like Scott can) with a mastery of numbers and statistics. Unless Scott personally puts himself and his money on the line for CLC, something he has no reason to do, I don't see CLC ever going anywhere.

[Dereich]

Libertarian candidate Augustus Sol Invictus admits to sacrificing goat and drinking its blood.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/features/gone-viral/os-ap-florida-senate-sacrificing-goat-20151005-story.html

Damn, just missed on getting this out first. It's such an amazingly Florida news story.

Sjoyce honestly, who is more likely to be the dem nominee? I would say Grayson because florida dems are awful but I m not a specialist.

Not him, but as an admittedly biased Florida poster I'm still saying Grayson. The FL Dems original sin is not understanding the unique nature of the Florida electorate. They count on demographics and Republican mistakes to carry them to wins without any need for them to regulate their behavior themselves. While this works in other states (and with Bill Nelson, who has the advantage of many many GOP mistakes and is himself a good politician) in Florida it just means getting far outperformed by savvier GOP campaigns. For me, it all translates into the FL Dems making lazy and poor decisions when it comes to electibility, which is why I've always considered Murphy doomed.

In this election, Greyson is well known and well liked by large parts of the liberal primary electorate. Murphy is not well known outside his district and political watchers. He doesn't have any signature accomplishments or benefits that I can think of and electibility isn't a primary concern for primary voters; given all that and it being a presidential year (with low information voters who only know Grayson and perhaps people thinking the Presidential election gives more leeway with ideology) I've seen nothing which would put Murphy over the top without a world-class campaign.

[Dereich]

Anyway, if you're asking about the Senate primary, that doesn't happen until August 30

[Dereich]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.

This scandal is mostly bad for his parents, who may have broken finance laws. It would give his opponents ammo to attack him.

Won't matter then.  Weren't there domestic violence rumors with Murphy or am I thinking of someone else? 

Don't be so sure. The domestic violence allegations happened a few years ago and most voters haven't heard of them. On the other hand, 74% of voters still don't have an opinion of Murphy in that AIF poll earlier in the month. First hearing of a senate candidate through a scandal (even a minor one) creates a bad first impression and makes Grayson look better. If you're a voter going into the booth and you think BOTH guys are crooked, why not choose the one who will really stick it to the Republicans?

[Dereich]

Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.

This scandal is mostly bad for his parents, who may have broken finance laws. It would give his opponents ammo to attack him.

Won't matter then.  Weren't there domestic violence rumors with Murphy or am I thinking of someone else? 

Don't be so sure. The domestic violence allegations happened a few years ago and most voters haven't heard of them. On the other hand, 74% of voters still don't have an opinion of Murphy in that AIF poll earlier in the month. First hearing of a senate candidate through a scandal (even a minor one) creates a bad first impression and makes Grayson look better. If you're a voter going into the booth and you think BOTH guys are crooked, why not choose the one who will really stick it to the Republicans?

Several articles about Murphy controversies.
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/fdp-now-getting-rid-10k-al-rashid-donation
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/patrick-murphy-donates-contributions-from-friend-who-pleaded-guilty-to/2277613
Apparently he gave away some money he got from a friend who was later found guilty of domestic violence.

My mistake. I thought X was making a backhanded comparison to Grayson's domestic violence issues with that "or am I thinking of someone else" to imply that Murphy's problems weren't a big deal.

[Dereich]

I think Nelson will retire, so Graham might run for that instead.  But it would be better in the long run for the FL Dem party to elect a governor, because the center-left majority on the state supreme court that just gave them better districts to run in is at stake in 2018.

The so-called "center-left" SCoF was majority appointed by Republicans but the Governor doesn't matter very much on this issue. Once there is a vacancy on the Court a commission nominates several names and the Governor picks one of the names given to them.

The commission is made up of three members appointed by the Florida Bar, three by the Governor (who serve 4 year terms, so it could be the previous Governor), and three by the other six. A bunch of openings on the Court will happen in 2019 because of retirement laws but it'll probably still be Scott's people on the judicial nominating committee which selects the choices given to the Governor.

[Dereich]

About two weeks ago, former Congressional and Senate candidate Dan Bongino from Maryland was in FL-22 talking about a possible campaign for Congress in FL-18. Now he suddenly has decided to run for Clawson's seat on the west coast. He's been in Florida for like less than a year. Carpetbagging POS.

...you know that two thirds of the state population would count as carpetbaggers, right? People move to Florida for better lives and opportunities; I don't see why that shouldn't apply to politicians when it applies to everyone else.

[Dereich]

First David Rivera, then Jeb Bush...will Rubio throw yet another "friend" other the bus for political gain? Yikes!

Ah, yes, because Hillary Clinton is such a majestic and loving human being.

1. Rivera was a corrupt sleaz, no one has an obligation to defend a corrupt sleaz in politics.
2. Bush failed to understand the number one rule of anything: Those who have "proteges" will eventually get replaced by them. (EX: Bibi defeating Moshe Arens, President Santos abandoning Alvaro Uribe's agenda, etc...etc.. I can cite examples all day)
3. In the case of CLC, I agree, however.


Also, this is a good article about mythical nature of Rubio's apprenticeship under Bush:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/marco-rubio-slew-jeb-bush-mentor-2016-213652

"It’s certainly true that Bush and Rubio admire and support one another....but “mentor” in the traditional sense of working closely with a younger colleague? That did not really happen.

...Rubio describes Bush in his 2012 memoir An American Son as the man he admires most in Florida politics, calling him a “one-man idea factory.” But Rubio uses neither “mentor” nor “protégé” in his discussions of the governor. "


EDIT: Forgot to mention...Bush, Arens and Uribe all have something else in common...they tried to fight back and lost more to their so-called ex-proteges then they ever could've gained.

The view of Rubio as Bush's protege doesn't really come from his book. Bush was a powerful governor and Marco (as Speaker of the House) was perceived by the political class as being inconsequential and little more than an extension of the Governor's office. Bush was seen as encouraging and helping Rubio's career along; is it that much of a stretch to call him Rubio's mentor? Even if they weren't personally close, Bush was both Rubio's superior while they were in Florida office and someone who seriously influenced Rubio's politics and career. Isn't that what a mentor is?

Also, that article is full of crap tangential to this topic. Rubio was always a rising star? He left office practically unknown! The short term limits on Florida legislators doesn't lend itself to establishing name recognition. He says himself that half his neighbors didn't know him when he started his senate run. He was a guy who caught lucky breaks in a lucky year who just happened to have the charisma to take advantage.

[Dereich]

TN Volunteer, please quit posting about Florida politics until you manage to sit outside one of the top Florida politicos office for eight months. Then you'll know what is going on.

Good god, this so much. TNVolunteer nearly all of your Florida posts have been wildly wrong and completely baseless.

[Dereich]

^We'll see on election day whose posts were more ridiculous.

Okay, so who would a sane, logical person trust more? The myriad of posters who live in or near FL who know for a fact that your inane accusations are false, or a Tennessean who has never been to Florida and just enjoys sharing his conspiracy theories?

Also applicable.

[Dereich]

^We'll see on election day whose posts were more ridiculous.

Okay, so who would a sane, logical person trust more? The myriad of posters who live in or near FL who know for a fact that your inane accusations are false, or a Tennessean who has never been to Florida and just enjoys sharing his conspiracy theories?

Also applicable.

It's pretty sad that despite not living in Florida TNVolunteer still knows more about Florida politics than most of you!

If that was true it would be sad! Luckily it's an absurd suggestion.

[Dereich]

Republicans should be sending "Thank you" notes to Rubio because Murphy would have won in a landslide against any other GOP candidate (Beruff comes to my mind, lol).

No. This was wrong three months ago and is wrong now. Beruff is not comparable to the other mainstream Senate candidates who would all be roughly tied with Murphy because of an all-around lack of name recognition. Nobody wins landslides in Florida except MAYBE Bill Nelson in a good year. Your little narrative has always been a baseless delusion and you should stop trying to peddle it.

[Dereich]

Republicans should be sending "Thank you" notes to Rubio because Murphy would have won in a landslide against any other GOP candidate (Beruff comes to my mind, lol).

No. This was wrong three months ago and is wrong now. Beruff is not comparable to the other mainstream Senate candidates who would all be roughly tied with Murphy because of an all-around lack of name recognition. Nobody wins landslides in Florida except MAYBE Bill Nelson in a good year. Your little narrative has always been a baseless delusion and you should stop trying to peddle it.

When will you admit that you were totally wrong about your own state?!  TNVolunteer knows more about Florida politics.  It's Sad!

TVVolunteer knows as much about Florida Politics as he does about next month's lotto numbers. He was praying for/predicting Marco's reentry when NOTHING said it was likely or necessary. Rubio is on record as hating the Senate; his Senate career and testimonials about what he says in private point to the same thing. Nobody who knew anything about Rubio said he wanted to or was planning to run again; his family, his friends, major donors, and all major political players in the state all agreed that he didn't want to run again and had no plan to do so.

At the same time, there was no evidence for his faith in Murphy or his lack of faith in the other GOP candidates (not including Beruff who doesn't count as a real candidate). There was always good reason to doubt Murphy's ability as a candidate; I did so several times. Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45% barring a huge national landslide. When the candidates are polling below that its flat out from lack of name recognition, not by any deficiency by the candidate. Because of institutional strength, in a Florida race you ALWAYS have to start from the assumption that the Republican will be ahead unless the Republican is toxic to some part of their coalition or the Democrat can appeal better than average to some key GOP demographic; for Bill Nelson that's Southern Whites; he wins by keeping the margins much tighter than the GOP can afford in parts of the Panhandle and places like Marion County.

Was there anything wrong with the GOP candidates? Not really. Nothing about DeSantis, Lopez-Cantera or Jolly would have kept rural or suburban whites at home. Nothing to scare away the activists or the important donors. And there wasn't much to point to the older and still firmly GOP Cubans staying away from the GOP candidates either, especially since Cruz was still making a race of it while TNVolunteer was making his confident predictions.

There was never as much in Murphy as the forum had hoped there was, too. Winning in a swing district against one of the most toxic politicians in the nation isn't a great achievement and he didn't really bring much else to the table. A generic D doesn't win in Florida by just being generic; there were no particular groups he appealed to more than average. Nothing that made him the inevitable juggernaut of TNVolunteer's fever dreams. I have yet to see any reason why any of the other GOP candidates, with the FLGOP at their back, wouldn't be doing the same 4 or 5 points better than Trump that Rubio is. Even Rubio's approval ratings don't back up his prediction; based on those from when he got back into the race he was nothing special and still isn't.

He made a guess based on literally nothing. Circumstances changed; the Powers That Be wanted DeSantis and Jolly to stay in the House, Lopez-Cantera was really just in it to raise name recognition, and the national party decided they'd be able to raise more money with Rubio than the others anyway. Rubio being forced back into the race was never inevitable and never because "only he could stop Murphy from winning in a landslide." This isn't true and won't be true no matter how many times he says it. If you think he somehow DID know things without a shred of evidence I recommend you get his lottery numbers after all.