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Author Topic: MT-Gravis: Gov. Bullock (D) not safe in 2016  (Read 7158 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: March 24, 2015, 11:12:38 am »

44-44 Bullock/Zinke
46-38 Bullock/Fox

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2015, 11:25:57 am »

Fox isn't running, Zinke will probably wait for 2018 and challenge Tester instead.
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2015, 12:22:24 pm »

Was he ever?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2015, 01:13:52 pm »

Zinke is a paper tiger. I guarantee it in a race that will get closer to national attention.
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Prince of Salem
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« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2015, 01:21:46 pm »

Was he ever?
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Zioneer
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« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2015, 01:26:10 pm »

Bullock is one of those guys who are never safe, yet continually manage to win.
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Joshua
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« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2015, 02:00:14 pm »

Unless there's a scandal, this race will never move farther to the left that lean D and farther to the right than tossup.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2015, 04:41:20 pm »

Great Gov, who mistaken appointed Walsh as Senator. But at end he will narrowly win.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2015, 08:55:00 pm »

Bullock definitely isn't safe, but I daresay he's at least slightly favored. I wish we had more to go by than just a Gravis poll, but oh well.
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Pope Michael Bolton
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« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2015, 09:25:56 pm »

Zinke is a paper tiger. I guarantee it in a race that will get closer to national attention.

Agreed
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olowakandi
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2015, 11:14:10 pm »

Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2015, 11:15:41 pm by OC »Logged
Castro
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« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2015, 11:51:33 pm »

Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.

WV is gone.
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2015, 12:05:52 am »

Democrats are in really good shape in Missouri and Kentucky though.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2015, 01:47:25 am »

Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.

WV is gone.

Unless Manchin runs, this.

If Manchin declines, then the only question is which republican wins the party nod, the Dem candidate has no chance.
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« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2015, 01:52:31 am »

I find a helpful guide is that if a party is thinking of running a minority leader from one of the state chambers, all hope is lost. Kansas in 2014 might have been a notable exception, but still.
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« Reply #15 on: March 25, 2015, 09:08:55 pm »

Never though he was, but I think he'll narrowly win reelection in the end.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2015, 02:22:39 pm »

Great Gov, who mistakenly appointed Walsh Senator and is only mildly favored.

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.

WV is gone.

Unless Manchin runs, this.

If Manchin declines, then the only question is which republican wins the party nod, the Dem candidate has no chance.




GOP Govs

Mnt: Gov Bullock loses due to Joe Walsh debacle INC defeated GOP pickup
IN: Gov Pence reelected
ND: Gov Darlyple reelected
UT: Gov Herbert reelected
MO: GOP pickup
MS: Gov Bryant reelected
LA: Gov Vitter elected

Dem govs

KY: Gov Conway def Cromer
WA: Gov Inslee reelected
WVA: Kessler or Manchin elected
NC: Roy Cooper def Gov McCrory   INC def Dem pickup
NH: Hassen or Kuster is elected gov or reelected
VT: Gov Shumlin reelected
DeL: Dem gov
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2015, 02:26:39 pm »

I'm sorry, but there is really no way that the dems hold WV Gov. without Manchin running. Republicans aren't going to nominate a joke - it will either be Morrisey or McKinley getting the GOP nod.
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« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2015, 02:27:16 pm »

Democrats are going to hold onto the governorship in Missouri.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2015, 03:00:57 pm »

Democrats are going to hold onto the governorship in Missouri.

This is quite plausible, but it's far from a certainty.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2015, 08:17:14 pm »

Dems will net lose 1 gov in a combo of Mnt, MO and KY. MNY and MO are rype for pickings.

MNY? Use understandable abbreviations, please.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2015, 08:19:22 pm »

Dems will net lose 1 gov in a combo of Mnt, MO and KY. MNT and MO are rype for pickings.

MNT? Use understandable abbreviations, please.
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: March 27, 2015, 12:04:51 am »

I agree that WV is gone unless Manchin runs, and MO is probably Tilt or Lean R at this point. I'd say MT is Lean D, though, and NC is a toss-up.
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« Reply #23 on: March 27, 2015, 01:32:16 am »

I agree that WV is gone unless Manchin runs, and MO is probably Tilt or Lean R at this point. I'd say MT is Lean D, though, and NC is a toss-up.
Why would Missouri be lean R? The GOP's top candidate, Tom Schweich, just killed himself and the other top candidate, Catherine Hanaway, has been pretty thoroughly tied to several vicious ads against him. Also, the state Republican Party Chair, John Hancock, has been quoted by multiple GOP donors and operatives as making deragatory anti-Semetic comments about Tom Schweich. The only poll I have seen has Koster leading Hanaway by 6 points(granted, lots of undecideds), but there is no way she is gaining any popularity after Tom Schweich's death.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2015, 01:36:09 am by Ebsy »Logged
olowakandi
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« Reply #24 on: March 27, 2015, 02:59:45 am »

MO is lean GOP, because of presidential race. NC is a tossup, because of battleground nature of state.

My map perfectly fits how I think the presidential race will gp. I have no sympathy for GOV Bullock since he made the Joe Walsh appointment, cost Dems a seat in 2014 senate.

As for WVa, it assumes Manchin runs, which I am hoping.
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