FL-PPP: Primary, GE tossup

[RogueBeaver]

Low name recognition for everyone.

[Senator Cris]

Rubio (R) 49%
Grayson (D) 40%

Rubio (R) 48%
Murphy (D) 41%

Atwater (R) 41%
Grayson (D) 40%

Atwater (R) 41%
Murphy (D) 39%

Bondi (R) 45%
Grayson (D) 42%

Bondi (R) 45%
Murphy (D) 41%

Grayson (D) 40%
Lopez-Cantera (R) 36%

Murphy (D) 41%
Lopez-Cantera (R) 34%

Grayson (D) 42%
West (R) 39%

Murphy (D) 41%
West (R) 39%

GOP Primary:

West 38%
Bondi 25%
Aftwater 12%
Lopez-Cantera 8%

Aftwater 41%
Lopez-Cantera 15%

DEM Primary:

Grayson 22%
Murphy 21%

[Flake]

Why are they including West, who lives in Texas?

[Ebsy]

Why are they including West, who lives in Texas?

He actually is a Wyoming resident.

[Beet]

Haha, still no sign of the Murphy electability juggernaut.

[Devils30]

Murphy's name rec outside FL-18 is close to nothing and Bondi/Atwater have run statewide. This race will probably track the Presidential, obviously Walker in Florida would be good news for Dems.

[Donerail]

Haha, still no sign of the Murphy electability juggernaut.

Murphy's at 21/13 favorable, Grayson's at 20/26. Probably the biggest takeaway from the poll.

[windjammer]

If democrats want to win, they need someone who isn't controversial.

That's why I'm backing Murphy.

[publicunofficial]

If democrats want to win, they need someone who isn't controversial.

That's why I'm backing Murphy.

For the record, I am also backing Murphy.

[windjammer]

If democrats want to win, they need someone who isn't controversial.

That's why I'm backing Murphy.

For the record, I am also backing Murphy.

I know this "story". But, sorry, that's not really a scandal, something that happened 15 years ago.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If democrats want to win, they need someone who isn't controversial.

That's why I'm backing Murphy.

For the record, I am also backing Murphy.

I know this "story". But, sorry, that's not really a scandal, something that happened 15 years ago.

It was a legitimate scandal in 2012, but the way the GOP used it backfired. If the card is played right, it can be a "story." I doubt it will be used right, though, despite the FL-GOP's general competence.

[IceSpear]

Run West Run!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Run West Run!

Yes, I'd love to see him crush Julian Castro in 2020!

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Murphy looks like a good bet if Rubio runs for President. Otherwise, I think Rubio will likely win with relative ease.

[Vosem]

There's a part of me that still thinks Rubio will announce that he'll run for reelection to the Senate over the summer. It makes so much more sense for his future political career, and the pressure he's got to be getting from the NRSC (and from parts of the FL establishment too, who favor Bush and don't want to lose the Senate seat) must be intense.

[Skye]

There's a part of me that still thinks Rubio will announce that he'll run for reelection to the Senate over the summer. It makes so much more sense for his future political career, and the pressure he's got to be getting from the NRSC (and from parts of the FL establishment too, who favor Bush and don't want to lose the Senate seat) must be intense.

I agree. But I still think Rubio will probably run for President, where his odds aren't really good. A Bush for President/Rubio for Senate campaign in Florida would be formidable.

[publicunofficial]

But I thought Murphy was supposed to make this race lean Dem/Toss-up against Rubio? He is even losing women by the same margin as men against Rubio. Why should he make this race competitive?

Most people agree Murphy would lose against Rubio, but what Democrats (Murphy likely included) are betting on is that Rubio retires his Senate seat to run for President. In which case Murphy likely takes on either Pam Bondi or Jeff Atwater, who are formidable but not as good as Rubio (Which this poll shows).

I don't think anyone ever said it would be Lean Dem against Rubio, that's a serious strawman.

[MT Treasurer]

But I thought Murphy was supposed to make this race lean Dem/Toss-up against Rubio? He is even losing women by the same margin as men against Rubio. Why should he make this race competitive?

Most people agree Murphy would lose against Rubio, but what Democrats (Murphy likely included) are betting on is that Rubio retires his Senate seat to run for President. In which case Murphy likely takes on either Pam Bondi or Jeff Atwater, who are formidable but not as good as Rubio (Which this poll shows).

I don't think anyone ever said it would be Lean Dem against Rubio, that's a serious strawman.

Yeah, I was exaggerating a bit there, but I don't know what makes him so special, either. Is it because he is more moderate than DWS and Grayson or because the FL Dems have a terrible banch? I know he would be a good candidate but is he so much better than Grayson? Really?

[publicunofficial]

But I thought Murphy was supposed to make this race lean Dem/Toss-up against Rubio? He is even losing women by the same margin as men against Rubio. Why should he make this race competitive?

Most people agree Murphy would lose against Rubio, but what Democrats (Murphy likely included) are betting on is that Rubio retires his Senate seat to run for President. In which case Murphy likely takes on either Pam Bondi or Jeff Atwater, who are formidable but not as good as Rubio (Which this poll shows).

I don't think anyone ever said it would be Lean Dem against Rubio, that's a serious strawman.

Yeah, I was exaggerating a bit there, but I don't know what makes him so special, either. Is it because he is more moderate than DWS and Grayson or because the FL Dems have a terrible bench? I know he would be a good candidate but is he so much better than Grayson? Really?

FL-18 is a Romney seat, the only one Democrats held in Florida until Gwen Graham was elected. He defeated Allen West, who despite being crazy was also very popular among conservatives from across the nation and had a massive fundraising effort. Murphy beat him in one of the closest races in the country thanks in large part to his own massive fundraising.

In his first term in Congress, Murphy was then able to go from one of the most vunerable freshmen to one of the safest thanks in large part to his again massive fundraising, his work within the district making him popular, and keeping a smart voting record. While his lackluster 2014 opponent deserves some credit, Murphy's nearly 60% win in a red district during one of the worst waves for Democrats ever certainly showcases his prowess.

In short he's well-financed, charismatic, moderate, and knows how to win over conservatives to win in unfavorable territory. Grayson, meanwhile, is somewhat rich, is completely unlikable, and has a record so liberal he'd have trouble winning statewide in a light blue state. I'm not being hyperbolic when I say Grayson would not only be worse than Murphy, he'd be the worst possible candidate to run.

As for DWS, it's not that she's too liberal to run in Florida in so much as she's one of the main leaders of the Democratic party. It's an insane amount of baggage to run on in a light red state. However most of the opposition to her possible campaign has to do with very few in the Democratic Party liking her. She's been awful as DNC chair, isn't liberal or vocal enough to fire up the base (Which is Grayson's one good attribute), and is both personally and professionally the kind of candidate that a Republican could easily demonize as every negative liberal stereotype in one person.

[smoltchanov]

Well, i don't pay too much attention to polls that early. Even last summer (4-5 month before Election day) there were a lot of polls with Pryor and Ross leading in Arkansas, Braley led in Iowa, Udall - in Colorado, Hagan - in North Carolina, and, surely Brown and Coakley led for Maryland and Massachusetts governors. Everyone knows how it turned in November. Since then my custom is mostly ignore polls until late August - early September of election year. It's then when becomes clear whether we must expext next wave, and, generally - what to expect....

[Xing]

So a seven-point lead means an incumbent is unbeatable? Come on, I'll buy that Rubio would be favored against Murphy, but completely invulnerable, even in a good Democratic year? Not a chance. Murphy's win last year was quite impressive, though I'll admit that he's somewhat untested on a statewide level. A lot will come down to how well he holds up under all that scrutiny.

[Ebsy]

http://www.politico.com/playbook/?hp=r2_3

Marco Rubio is announcing on April 13, and he has said numerous times that if he runs for president he won't be running for reelection, so does this move the seat to toss-up?

[publicunofficial]

http://www.politico.com/playbook/?hp=r2_3

Marco Rubio is announcing on April 13, and he has said numerous times that if he runs for president he won't be running for reelection, so does this move the seat to toss-up?

Toss-Up/Tilt R. If Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio is the nominee, they probably take Florida and it'd be difficult for Murphy to overcome that.

Republican Senate candidate is probably Pam Bondi or Jeff Atwater. Don't know which is stronger, though I know Bondi has had some scandals.

[Donerail]

Bondi is better-known, but Atwater seems generally more competent and likeable. Some rumors have involved Carlos Lopez-Cantera seeking the seat as well.

[Panda Express]

Haha, still no sign of the Murphy electability juggernaut.

Haha, still no sign of Debbie Wasserman Shultz. Where could she be? Oh wait, she was pushed out by party leaders and donors and everyone because she is terrible.