CA-Gov: Schwarzenegger Falling and Retreating... (re-elect and approval #'s)

[Moooooo]

From The Swing State Project:

Not long ago, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was expected to coast to any easy re-election. But in a few short months, the Schwarzenegger administration has nose-dived and is on course to crash and burn in California's 2006 gubernatorial campaign.

First up, not what Schwarzenegger wants to see in the news:

OAKLAND, CALIF. — California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's "Year of Reform" is fast becoming a year of retreat.

What began in January as an outsized agenda — encompassing a range of issues as arcane as redistricting and as controversial as merit pay for teachers — has steadily shrunk as a chastened governor is set back on his heels, stung by his own missteps and an increasingly emboldened opposition.

Already, he has abandoned an initiative to privatize the state's pension system, as well as promises to drastically cut the bureaucracy in Sacramento. Now, he appears to be considering a plan to drop the merit-pay measure. Add in a few ill-conceived comments antagonizing immigrants and nurses, and Governor Schwarzenegger has reached a low point of his administration.

The problem with California is that when a politician is perceived to be weak, they are eaten alive. Which is why the latest poll numbers are even worse news for the Governator. From the subscription only Hotline:

Pollster Mark Mellman: "Schwarzenegger's failures and his failings and his battle with teachers, nurses and public safety workers have taken a tremendous toll on his image. He's nose-dived and is now worse off than George Bush in California"

The poll (onducted 4/18-21 for the California Teachers Association; surveyed 800 likely voters; margin of error ± 3.5%) shows Schwarzenegger with a 29% re-elect number and an approval rating of only 38%.

The last poll I noticed had Schwarzenegger at 43% (down from 59% in January).

Has Governor Schwarzenegger really fallen more than 20 pts so far this year?

It really doesn't matter...at this point, the sharks smell blood in the water and no matter how much Arnold retreats on the issues, he will be chased down and ripped apart.

Cover the eyes of the children, this is going to get ugly.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He was hurt by speaking at Rep. Nat. Conv.,  Before he was seen as above that stuff.  He is still gonna get reelected

[No more McShame]

I'm suspicious of any polling that shows a rapid nosedive like that.

[Moooooo]

I'm suspicious of any polling that shows a rapid nosedive like that.

I think their a little off too, but he has definitley taken a major hit.

[Moooooo]

He was hurt by speaking at Rep. Nat. Conv.,  Before he was seen as above that stuff.  He is still gonna get reelected

Read the article.  There is more to it then that.

[A18]

He shouldn't retreat at all. No point to being elected or re-elected unless you stand for something.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

nickshepdem, i was just saying that since then things have been going downhill for him

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In this Apr 3-17th poll, the plurality disapproved 47-45.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/4/28/122943/817

[Citizen James]

It's definitely going to get uglier.

Last year he made a deal with the teachers union so they would look the other way while he raided the school budget in violation of state law (the agreement was it would be one year only, and he would pay it back).  He went back on his word, and is in violation of law, and the teachers union is on the warpath and closing in for the kill.

[A18]

Sounds like a great governor. Now he just needs to be more conservative.

[phk]

Schwarzenneger is a bit mind-boggling.

IM A DEMOCRAT IM A REPUBLICAN
IM A REPUBLICAN IM A DEMOCRAT
IM A DEMOCRAT IM A REPUBLICAN
IM A REPUBLICAN IM A DEMOCRAT
IM A DEMOCRAT IM A REPUBLICAN
IM A REPUBLICAN IM A DEMOCRAT
IM A DEMOCRAT IM A REPUBLICAN
IM A REPUBLICAN IM A DEMOCRAT

Is the game he's playing and in the process just pissing both sides off.

[MissCatholic]

Hes talks utter rubbish sometimes.

does he understand that taking on teacher unions, firefighters and policemen is going to get you into trouble.

[The Duke]

He says stupid stuff.  It was funny at first when he called Democrats "losers" and "girlie men", but at some point, you want a little more.  The big problem is that he's moved on to the redistricting issue, which I support, and teacher merit pay, which I support, before really resolving the deficit.

[tinman64]

Ahnold is finding his "Governator" pose is wearing thin with Californians.  We want action, not sound bites.

Last week, he had to apologize for his comment about closing the Mexican border.  He claimed later he meant restricting the border, and blamed his poor English for the miswording.  Come on, the man has spoken English for over thirty years!!

I know of three staunch Ahnold supporters from the '03 special election that won't vote for him in '06. 

[A18]

The Republicans don't control the legislature, so it's kind of hard to get things done.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A new poll has 40% approve, 50% disapprove. Even Bush never had numbers that bad.

Where are all of the people who were telling us that Arnold is invincible?

[Alcon]

A new poll has 40% approve, 50% disapprove. Even Bush never had numbers that bad.

Where are all of the people who were telling us that Arnold is invincible?

The problem is that, despite being in a heavily Democratic and hugely populated state, the California Democrats have no one with big enough of a name.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A new poll has 40% approve, 50% disapprove. Even Bush never had numbers that bad.

Where are all of the people who were telling us that Arnold is invincible?

The problem is that, despite being in a heavily Democratic and hugely populated state, the California Democrats have no one with big enough of a name.

Three holders of statewide elected offices were running, now it's two since one of them dropped out. The front-runner should be State Treasurer Phil Angelides, with State Controller Steve Westly also running.

[Alcon]

A new poll has 40% approve, 50% disapprove. Even Bush never had numbers that bad.

Where are all of the people who were telling us that Arnold is invincible?

The problem is that, despite being in a heavily Democratic and hugely populated state, the California Democrats have no one with big enough of a name.

Three holders of statewide offices were running, now it's two since one of them dropped out. The front-runner should be State Treasurer Phil Angelides, with State Controller Steve Westly also running.

Well, that is wonderful, but do they really promise much? A lot of people will simply swallow their pride and vote Schwarzenegger if they see the Democratic candidate as a sacrificial lamb, and with no-names relative to Schwarzenegger, that would not be a hard image to produce for his campaign.

[The Duke]

Don't think he's invincible?  Think again.

By the time 2006 rolls around, he won't have a 40-50 approve-disapprove rating, and its stupid to pretend he will.

By the time 2006 rolls around, he'll have more money in the bank than any gubernotorial candidate in history.  The Democrats will have a primary, I guess between Westly and Angelides that will consume a lot of their money.

To paraphrase Jim Fassel:

Anyone who wants in get in, anyone who wants out get out.  Arnold Schwarzenegger will be re-elected.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A new poll has 40% approve, 50% disapprove. Even Bush never had numbers that bad.

Where are all of the people who were telling us that Arnold is invincible?

The problem is that, despite being in a heavily Democratic and hugely populated state, the California Democrats have no one with big enough of a name.

Three holders of statewide offices were running, now it's two since one of them dropped out. The front-runner should be State Treasurer Phil Angelides, with State Controller Steve Westly also running.

Well, that is wonderful, but do they really promise much? A lot of people will simply swallow their pride and vote Schwarzenegger if they see the Democratic candidate as a sacrificial lamb, and with no-names relative to Schwarzenegger, that would not be a hard image to produce for his campaign.

Angelides has already raised over $12 million, and will have been State treasurer for 8 years, elected in 1998 and 2002. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even if he does get reelected, this basically does prove that his election was hardly a sign of California politics at large and simply a reflection of the fact he's a big movie star and everyone hated Davis. I still stand by saying that he is the only Republican who can win statewide in California currently.

[tinman64]

Floor, I agree, Ahnold is the only CA Rep who can get elected statewide...at this time.  I believe Tom McClintock is running for LT Governor in '06, and he put up a good showing in the recall election.  He could make it, although he may be too conservative for many CA voters in the LA and SF areas.

Ahnold has the money and name advantage, but Angelides is no slouch -- he's been elected statewide twice, and is a proven money raiser.  All Ahnold has to do is insert his foot into his big mouth a few more times, and he is in deep trouble.  He also has a not-so-great record, and his honeymoon ended months ago.  Plus, teachers and unions are upset with him -- two groups you don't want to get teed off.