Why Do You Think Bush Is Strongest?
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  Why Do You Think Bush Is Strongest?
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Author Topic: Why Do You Think Bush Is Strongest?  (Read 3661 times)
bobloblaw
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« on: April 01, 2015, 12:01:50 PM »

I have noticed that there are quite a few people here who think that Jeb Bush would make the strongest candidate for the GOP in 2016. I completely disagree, but Id be curious as to hear why. Especially from those who consider themselves GOP or GOP leaning voters.

I think that if Bush is the nominee, not only will he lose badly to Clinton, he will pull down the entire GOP  downticket because conservatives wont come out to vote. And dont think that conservative hatred for Hillary will result in votes for Bush, it wont. A good case can be made that Hillary would help conservatives long term and Bush would destroy them just like Daddy and W did.
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King
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« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2015, 12:14:21 PM »

I don't.
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Blair
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« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2015, 12:25:36 PM »

Conservatives will vote for Bush, you're forgetting how much they hate Hilary.

There seems to be a lot of revisionism regarding Bush. Ted Cruz and his ilk like to pretend that Bush is a RINO and that he's awful when in fact he's pretty damn conservative-he's anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, pro-gun, pro-business and was a 'severely conservative governor'

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Brewer
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« Reply #3 on: April 01, 2015, 12:29:18 PM »

I posted in the recent thread on the issue that I believe Bush to be the strongest, but only because Kasich was not a poll option. Saying Bush is the strongest out of the options that were listed is hardly a high bar. With Scott Walker's fopo flubs and Rand Paul's vaccine commentary + his comments on gay rights, I see them both as pretty gaffe prone. I personally believe Walker, for all his strengths, will buckle under pressure. Just a gut feeling.

Essentially, I see Jeb as the guy least likely to say something stupid.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: April 01, 2015, 12:35:28 PM »

Money.
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« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2015, 12:38:49 PM »

As long as he makes the right moves on the VERY important wedge issue (abortion), I'm pretty sure his unorthodox views will be allowed to slide.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2015, 03:35:22 PM »

If conservatives came out for McCain and Romney despite insisting they wouldn't, they will for Jeb too.

That said, I don't think Jeb is the strongest. I see Kasich and possibly Walker/Paul as stronger.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2015, 03:48:46 PM »

Conservatives will vote for Bush, you're forgetting how much they hate Hilary.

There seems to be a lot of revisionism regarding Bush. Ted Cruz and his ilk like to pretend that Bush is a RINO and that he's awful when in fact he's pretty damn conservative-he's anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, pro-gun, pro-business and was a 'severely conservative governor'



What did I just say above?Huh Also being in the UK doesnt exactly give you a strong position to know what American conservatives will do. in fact in 2012, 5 million white working class voters stayed home, in 2000, Karl Rove said the DUI issue caused 3 million evangelicals to sit out. So conservatives will indeed sit out the election.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2015, 03:49:26 PM »


Presidents Connolly and Gramm agree
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2015, 03:51:07 PM »

If conservatives came out for McCain and Romney despite insisting they wouldn't, they will for Jeb too.

That said, I don't think Jeb is the strongest. I see Kasich and possibly Walker/Paul as stronger.

They DIDNT come out for Romney and McCain. Both got fewer votes than GW Bush when Bush ran a "Base Campaign" in 2004.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: April 01, 2015, 05:48:26 PM »

I don't, but others probably do because money+Florida+not entirely crazy
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2015, 06:23:28 PM »

If conservatives came out for McCain and Romney despite insisting they wouldn't, they will for Jeb too.

That said, I don't think Jeb is the strongest. I see Kasich and possibly Walker/Paul as stronger.

They DIDNT come out for Romney and McCain. Both got fewer votes than GW Bush when Bush ran a "Base Campaign" in 2004.

This is simply not factual. Romney actually got more 'conservative' and more white evangelical (base) votes than Bush in 04.

Conservatives:   % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       34 / 84
McCain 08   34 / 78
Romney 12   35 / 82

White Evangelical Christians: % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       23 / 78
McCain 08   26 / 74
Romney 12   26 / 78

Romney was able to get more white evangelicals than Bush even though the number of white voters overall shrunk 6%. The biggest difference between Bush in 04 and McCain and Romney was Bush's appeal to non-GOP base voters and moderates, especially non-whites.

Non-whites: % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       22 / 27
McCain 08   26 / 18
Romney 12   28 / 18



That is why people thing Jeb Bush can win.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2015, 06:51:22 PM »

If conservatives came out for McCain and Romney despite insisting they wouldn't, they will for Jeb too.

That said, I don't think Jeb is the strongest. I see Kasich and possibly Walker/Paul as stronger.

They DIDNT come out for Romney and McCain. Both got fewer votes than GW Bush when Bush ran a "Base Campaign" in 2004.

This is simply not factual. Romney actually got more 'conservative' and more white evangelical (base) votes than Bush in 04.

Conservatives:   % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       34 / 84
McCain 08   34 / 78
Romney 12   35 / 82

White Evangelical Christians: % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       23 / 78
McCain 08   26 / 74
Romney 12   26 / 78

Romney was able to get more white evangelicals than Bush even though the number of white voters overall shrunk 6%. The biggest difference between Bush in 04 and McCain and Romney was Bush's appeal to non-GOP base voters and moderates, especially non-whites.

Non-whites: % of voters / % GOP
Bush 04       22 / 27
McCain 08   26 / 18
Romney 12   28 / 18



That is why people thing Jeb Bush can win.

yore not sourcing any of that.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2015, 06:56:21 PM »

I think a lot of people here do want Bush, not only because he would be a guaranteed loser, but it makes the Establishment comfortable because on many issues the election wouldnt matter. Like on education and immigration. Bush is certainly one of "Them" or "us" depending on your prospective.


Personally, I wouldnt vote for Bush under any circumstances. I think he is an entitled brat of a failed political family. A loss would relegate them to the ash heap of history. I also think he is a progressive in that he believes that the federal government should actively work to make people's lives better. I am certainly not alone in that belief.

I would indeed vote for Hillary over Bush. Both would destroy their party's national position over the course of their SINGLE term. And I'd rather it be Hillary who does that.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #14 on: April 01, 2015, 06:56:59 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2015, 07:00:39 PM by Likely Voter »

Quote
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http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll


I'm sorry but conservative media have been lying about how Romney and McCain lost because conservatives "didn't show up." The GOP party leaders know this, it is all in the 'autopsy' they released, talking about how they need to expand the appeal of the party beyond the base. 
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stegosaurus
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« Reply #15 on: April 01, 2015, 07:07:49 PM »

The only person he has to outlast is Walker, who has already said plenty of dumb things and will be at a serious financial and infrastructural disadvantage.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #16 on: April 01, 2015, 07:12:30 PM »

Quote
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http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll


I'm sorry but conservative media have been lying about how Romney and McCain lost because conservatives "didn't show up." The GOP party leaders know this, it is all in the 'autopsy' they released, talking about how they need to expand the appeal of the party beyond the base. 


Only two of your links have any decent data.

well 32% of the electorate in 2008 was GOP and 37% was GOP in 2004. So it would seem that I am right. A moderate GOP candidate results in lower GOP turnout.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2015, 07:19:37 PM »

Quote
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http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls.main/
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll


I'm sorry but conservative media have been lying about how Romney and McCain lost because conservatives "didn't show up." The GOP party leaders know this, it is all in the 'autopsy' they released, talking about how they need to expand the appeal of the party beyond the base. 


Only two of your links have any decent data.

well 32% of the electorate in 2008 was GOP and 37% was GOP in 2004. So it would seem that I am right. A moderate GOP candidate results in lower GOP turnout.

As has been noted before ad nauseum, party ID changes. Since 2004 polls have shown many people switching from identifying with GOP to Independent (some attribute this to growth of Tea Party). On the other hand, polls show political philosophy (Liberal, Moderate, Conservative) more steady over time. Simply put, party ID is not a 'demographic' like white evangelical.

You are grasping at straws, look at the full picture. Or live in ignorance. It is your choice.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2015, 07:22:36 PM »

I'm about as far from being a Republican as you can get; I sort-of agree with Brewer. I see Bush as a strong candidate because I think he's going to be less prone to campaign-wounding foot-in-mouth moments than Walker and Paul. Also, because money.
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Gallium
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« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2015, 07:33:07 PM »

Money + Florida + an adoring media that will do everything to make a Hillary/Jeb race 2000 redux.
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Blair
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« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2015, 01:21:19 AM »

Conservatives will vote for Bush, you're forgetting how much they hate Hilary.

There seems to be a lot of revisionism regarding Bush. Ted Cruz and his ilk like to pretend that Bush is a RINO and that he's awful when in fact he's pretty damn conservative-he's anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, pro-gun, pro-business and was a 'severely conservative governor'



What did I just say above?Huh Also being in the UK doesnt exactly give you a strong position to know what American conservatives will do. in fact in 2012, 5 million white working class voters stayed home, in 2000, Karl Rove said the DUI issue caused 3 million evangelicals to sit out. So conservatives will indeed sit out the election.

Oh sorry I forgot that to be an expert in American politics you have to leave there, I'll try moving in the next couple of days so that my opinion becomes valid for you
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heatmaster
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« Reply #21 on: April 02, 2015, 02:25:11 AM »

I agree with the premise that Bush has it all, brand name identification,  he's as conservative as you get, not stupid conservative enough, a good deal more than Romney ever could be, he makes the right noises on immigration which could be key in expanding beyond the base, he has the money,  is the establishment guy & every establishment candidate since 1960 has won the nomination,  the exception it could be argued was in 1964, but we all know what happened there don't we. It's any wonder why the purist conservatives keep losing, so Cruz ain't going anywhere fast, he might win kudos with the kamikaze element, but it's the Independent s other groups that are the deciding factor, that's how come the "grownups" within the Republican party should and will prevail and conservatives in there heart of hearts know this, the tea - party element are another incarnation of the John Birch society,  purists to the extreme & where did they go? No where. So the likes of Cruz,  Huckabee & Santorum as well as Paul are basically cut from the same cloth. Bush for that very reason will emerge as the other guy who can take on Hillary,  by the by, she's not likeable and doesn't sell well on the trust issue and if this email affair is a reminder of the trust issue, Hillary has herself to blame for that. The sense of entitlement and this attitude about pulling all sorts of strokes and it doesn't matter. But don't take my word for it, look at the polls. So Jeb will be the guy😊
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #22 on: April 02, 2015, 05:16:45 AM »

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m4567
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« Reply #23 on: April 02, 2015, 06:19:54 AM »
« Edited: April 02, 2015, 06:27:48 AM by m4567 »

He may not be stronger than Kasich or Paul, but he is DEFINITELY stronger than Walker, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Snyder, ...

Reasons:
1.) He's a great debater. Better than Clinton.
2.) He can appeal to Hispanics and maybe Asian Americans (but not because of muh Hispanic wife!)
3.) He has enough money.
4.) He can defeat Clinton.
5.) He would be an establishment candidate.
6.) He's smarter than Romney and wouldn't let Hillary define him as "pure dynasty evil".

He's the most electable, but not exciting to anyone. To win a presidential election, you have to make yourself really stand-out. Jeb is way too "more of the same".
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heatmaster
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« Reply #24 on: April 02, 2015, 07:07:02 AM »

If it turns out that Hillary is the Democrats choice, I can imagine that on July 21, as Republicans leave Cleveland with the moolah & momentum as well as Bush preaching the right message & Hillary is finding it difficult to define Jeb in negative terms, Hillary will start using sexism & class wedge issues, basically throwing a hissy, as she and her husband have that idea of entitlement and little else to sell on the idea of a Hillary presidency, except her 'experience' & she is a Democrat. She is being defined by the Trust issue, not well liked, it's now a case of diminishing returns. Jeb on the other, is likeable enough,  the sort of guy, you could have a beer with and chat about all sorts. He has smarts. If he is smart enough and picks Susanna Martinez, makes the west, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada & New Mexico ideal hunting ground for Republicans. Martinez as woman nullifies the sexism issue, she would offer more positives if Carly Fiorina doesn't make the V.P. slot. Dynasty issues are another no no, because then it's a case of the "pot calling the kettle black" I'm amazed that Hillary hasn't a better argument than the one she has, which I'm not sure what exactly it is, apart from the "I'm a woman and I'm a woman" argument. She reminds me of a person who is in the race, but not really sure of the reason. Jeb I think has been looking at America in the era of Obama and must be wondering of what was all the hype about Obama. Well I'm looking forward to the next chapter of this electoral season😊
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