1976 Election ("What if"-scenario)

[Michael Z]

What if Ronald Reagan had beaten Gerald Ford in the Republican primaries for 1976? (It was, after all, a very tight race between them.) Would Carter still have been President? Or would the Republicans have claimed the White House?

I personally think Carter would have beaten Reagan in a 1976 contest. There was still a fair amount of anti-Republican sentiment after the Watergate scandal (which, from what I can gather, carried Carter's election victory more than any other factor), and Carter had yet to commit the economic- and foreign policy mishaps which basically handed victory to Reagan on a plate in 1980.

Of course this begs the question whether an unsuccessful Presidential run in 1976 would have scuppered Reagan's chances for 1980, or whether he still would have gone on to win two terms in the eighties.

[Michael Z]

Interesting how the results of 1976 profoundly affect us to this day...for example, if Carter loses to Ford (or if Reagan loses to Carter) there is never any Pres. Reagan, then there is never any Pres. GHW Bush, and thus obviously no Pres. GW Bush.

Interesting theory, though you never know, given that Bush was the only genuine challenger to Reagan in the 1980 primaries. As far as I'm aware he was already a fairly big player within the Republican Party, so we might have seen President George HW Bush at some stage, regardless of him being Reagan's running mate or not. But that's pure speculation, of course. (But then so was my original post which started this thread... ah, diddums.)

Also, thanks Ryan for some insight on how the political demographics of the South changed in the course of the 1970s. I was totally unaware of some of the facts you presented, thanks.