1976 Election ("What if"-scenario)

[Ryan]

While I am probably unqualified to provide a comprehensive analysis of what would have happened if Reagan were nominated in 1976, I would mention one factor that may have mitigated against his chances-The South.
While the South got progressively more democratic during the 70's there was a marked difference between 1976 and 1980 in Southern attitude towards the two parties. Besides in 1976 Carter was a well-known Southern Governor (if you rule out LBJ cause he wasn’t born in the South he became the first real Southern President)
Thus there was an emotional reason for the South to vote democrat. Reagan being from California may have had a tough time with that.
However in 1980 the South was thoroughly disillusioned with the performance of even a Southern democrat and had really lost faith in the party. Reagan I believe won every southern state save Georgia that year.

Besides of course there are the factors that Mike mentioned like post-Watergate blues for the GOP. Still we must remember that the country was very closely divided in 1976 and no one should underestimate “the Gipper”. If forced to, I would bet on Carter winning against Reagan but I wouldn’t put much money on it.

[Ryan]

U sure about LBJ being Born in Texas?? I'm just asking not challenging that. I cant remember where I read he was born outside Texas so it may have been an unreliable source.

I can state however that while many people in the South voted for him as the democrat, they didnt really consider him a southern President. He didnt gel very well with Souherners outside Texas. He was one of two or three Southern legislators to refuse to sign the Souhern Manifesto and he also fell out of favor on other issues.
Btw Great society aside I kinda like the guy. He seemed like a decent President for the time.

LBJ was born in Texas, which I would think is considered to be part of the South (it was part of the old Confederacy during the Civil War, which is usually the definition of the South).

[Ryan]

Ironically, the generation that moved the country left in the '60s has been repudiating itself at the ballot box is the same generation that has voted for Republicans 7 times out of 9-- even today polls show that older Americans (60+) are more likely to lean Democrat than baby boomers are.

This is a great point - but I think you're drawing the wrong conclusion.  If the '60s generation keeps supporting Republicans it may be more accurate to conclude that a lot of them never were far left. I think the left just makes lots of noise and grabs the most headlines.  

I agree with both of your points. Ndog is quite right that there is a misconception about every (or even most) youth in the 1960's being militantly anti-war. They were a minority even at that time.

But Beet is also right in surmising that many youth of the day shifted rightwards (in more ways than one)  later on.
Nor is that confined to the 60's generation.

For as Churchill said, (not exact words) "If you are not a liberal when you are young, You have no heart and if you're not a conservative when older, you have no brain."

I wont go into this in detail but I believe there is a lot of truth in this. I'm only in my early 20's but in my teens I was much more likely to believe in utopian concepts of world peace and redistributing wealth to the poor. As I got older I moved more to the right each year. Hasn't that happened to anyone else?

[Ryan]

Well, personally, I've actually become more liberal as I've become older, at least on social issues. I used to be more of a populist Democrat when I was in my teens, conservative on social issues but liberal on economics, now in my 20s I'm pretty much liberal across-the-board with only a few issues on which I lean more to the right.

Well then I refer you to Sir. Winston Churchill

[Ryan]

hey ppl, this seems like this is an interesting conversation. However its in the wrong forum so others who may want to join wont know its on. I've started a new thread in General Politics discussion in case you guys want to continue the conversation, I've taken the liberty of posting your input there Enjoy!!!

[Ryan]

He would have lost.
Economics was never his strong point and the late '70's saw a World Recession.

With all due respect Realpolitik, I gotta agree with dazzleman here. A neutral and non-partisan approach would not lead one to two such sweeping conclusions.

Anyways no harm, no foul. Reagan is an emotive topic for both sides and some judgemental statements are inevitable.

[Ryan]

Very Interesting angle. I do believe you are right about Ford not being able to run again in 1980.
As to who would have won, I'm gonna throw up my hands and admit defeat I have No Idea.

[Ryan]

I'm glad they lost too but for a different reason Carter was the Democrats last hurrah in the South. After even the administration of a good ol boy southern democrat turned out so liberal and incompetent, a lotta former yellow dog southern democrats gave up all hope in the Democratic Party. All they needed was a clear and inspiring GOP alternative to start the process of firm partisan realignment. As it turns out they got one

But anyway Carters administration was not nearly so liberal as to cause permanent damage to the nation. A win-win as far as I'm concerned.