Carter v Ford Today

[bobloblaw]

Can someone draw a map of what you think rerunning the 1976 election would look like with today's electorate?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Can someone draw a map of what you think rerunning the 1976 election would look like with today's electorate?

Ford 295
Carter 243

[Dr. Cynic]

Can someone draw a map of what you think rerunning the 1976 election would look like with today's electorate?

Ford 295
Carter 243

What an odd looking map.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

How the hell would either one get their party's nomination today?

[bobloblaw]

Not sure I agree with the maps, but nice to see. Cant see OR and WA going Ford and PA is unlikely. Likeswise AR and LA for Carter would be a stretch.

Maybe Jason Carter 2024

[ElectionsGuy]

Ford - 277
Carter - 261

[Rockefeller GOP]

Can't imagine a universe in which WV votes for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter, regardless of time period...

[Mr. Smith]

My guess (percentages not necessarily accurate)

[Mechaman]

I really don't see Ford winning with an even larger non-white voting population than 1976 (that is what ultimately put Carter over the top in the urban states).

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Wow, this post has to be a joke.

Carter probably still wins entire South, plus Virginia but minus Alabama and Texas.

Uh, no. I doubt Carter would even win his home state of Georgia in today's Republican south. Certainly not Mississippi, South Carolina, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, or Tennessee. Might have a shot in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.

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Nevada is the swing state. No way Carter takes Arizona.

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The only sense you make at all.

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If Minnesota voted for Clinton, why on Earth would it not vote for Carter?  You clearly have a theory of "nearby states" voting for favorite sons that doesn't hold up in the current electorate. Gore couldn't even win Tennessee for Pete's sake.

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As a long-time resident of the Florida panhandle, this is the most ridiculous statement of your entire theory! Solid Republican country, and the state of Florida would hardly be Dem. territory (very swingy, at best).

[Rockefeller GOP]

Doesn't the panhandle literally have a Democratic representative right now?  Lol.

[VPH]

[IceSpear]

Doesn't the panhandle literally have a Democratic representative right now?  Lol.

The R+6 half of the panhandle does. The R+21 half most certainly doesn't.

[bobloblaw]

Yeah,  I think Ford takes AZ though

[SingingAnalyst]

Not much different from Bush-Gore 2000 except, of the Bush states, Carter would hold GA, TN, AR, FL, KY, WV and perhaps LA; the other southern states have become too Republican. Of the Gore states, Ford would hold only VT with help from Ralph Nader. Easy win for Carter. Looking deeper, Carter would be palatable to single issue pro-life voters who today vote reflexively GOP, and would still appeal to pro-choice liberals who would see him as inclined to follow the pro choice Dem party on the issue.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ford 270
Carter 268


Basically a close Mccain/Ridge vs Gore/Gephard 2000 race

[bagelman]

Carter (R-GA) 281 EV

Ford (D-MI) 257 EV

Carter's win depends on Virginia pulling through and outvoting NOVA.

yes I inverted the parties on purpose

[Vosem]

This is an average of the 1976 and 2016 results, which is an imperfect proxy for a Carter v. Ford race, but still works as a proxy:

Yes, Trump's 2016 WV win was larger than Carter's 1976 win there. Conversely, though, Carter did in fact win AR in 1976 by more than Trump did in 2016 (in fact, in 1976, Arkansas was the second most Democratic state in the country after Georgia).

EDIT: I did not take Maine or Nebraska CD's into account; data from that era clearly suggests that the results would've been Ford/Trump carrying all 3 Nebraska CD's, and the state, while 1 Maine CD votes for the Republican even as the other CD, and the state, go Democratic. (Yes, Hillary's margin in ME-statewide was greater than Ford's, surprisingly enough). The electoral college tally for the map depicted above, under 2010 apportionment, is 310-228 Carter-Ford; the "actual" number is 309-229, since 1 ME CD is still won by Ford.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Carter wins, although Georgia is the only state he wins that Obama didn't win at least once.  He may have won AR solidly in 1976 and won WV even when he lost in 1980, but it's 2016 now.

[SingingAnalyst]

This is an average of the 1976 and 2016 results, which is an imperfect proxy for a Carter v. Ford race, but still works as a proxy:

Yes, Trump's 2016 WV win was larger than Carter's 1976 win there. Conversely, though, Carter did in fact win AR in 1976 by more than Trump did in 2016 (in fact, in 1976, Arkansas was the second most Democratic state in the country after Georgia).

EDIT: I did not take Maine or Nebraska CD's into account; data from that era clearly suggests that the results would've been Ford/Trump carrying all 3 Nebraska CD's, and the state, while 1 Maine CD votes for the Republican even as the other CD, and the state, go Democratic. (Yes, Hillary's margin in ME-statewide was greater than Ford's, surprisingly enough). The electoral college tally for the map depicted above, under 2010 apportionment, is 310-228 Carter-Ford; the "actual" number is 309-229, since 1 ME CD is still won by Ford.

Switch AR and CO and this looks like a possible 2024 map, with a moderate Rep vs. a populist, competent Dem.

[Breton Racer]

Carter-341 Electoral Votes
Ford-197 Electoral Votes

[Mr. Smith]

My guess (percentages not necessarily accurate)

Switch Iowa and Kentucky with Louisiana and the map still holds up.