2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project: COMPLETE!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley are less Democratic than Latinos in the rest of Texas: many Mexican-Americans in Brownsville, Laredo and McAllen are fourth or fifth generation Americans, who have deep roots in the United States. They're more "Tejano" than Mexican. Many of these Mexican-Americans work for the border patrol and have concerns about border security. While I doubt that they're less than 55% Democratic, this would have an impact on the estimated White vote in the Rio Grande Valley. On top of this, it's quite likely that Latino turnout and voter registration is shockingly low compared to the Latino VAP.

Obviously, this is difficult to prove without detailed local knowledge but I have family members who grew up in Matamoros. Although Brownsville is considered by many Americans to effectively be part of Mexico, many Mexicans consider Matamoros to effectively be part of the United States. Mexican-American culture in parts of the Rio Grande Valley is actually pretty "American". This cannot be said for, say, Houston or Dallas, where most Latinos are recent immigrants or the children of immigrants.

[Adam Griffin]

Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley are less Democratic than Latinos in the rest of Texas: many Mexican-Americans in Brownsville, Laredo and McAllen are fourth or fifth generation Americans, who have deep roots in the United States. They're more "Tejano" than Mexican. Many of these Mexican-Americans work for the border patrol and have concerns about border security. While I doubt that they're less than 55% Democratic, this would have an impact on the estimated White vote in the Rio Grande Valley. On top of this, it's quite likely that Latino turnout and voter registration is shockingly low compared to the Latino VAP.

Obviously, this is difficult to prove without detailed local knowledge but I have family members who grew up in Matamoros. Although Brownsville is considered by many Americans to effectively be part of Mexico, many Mexicans consider Matamoros to effectively be part of the United States. Mexican-American culture in parts of the Rio Grande Valley is actually pretty "American". This cannot be said for, say, Houston or Dallas, where most Latinos are recent immigrants or the children of immigrants.

Even though I'm sure my calculations are way off based on what was mentioned earlier, I generally believe the same: Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley are more established and therefore are going to be less Democratic, while whites (for the same reason mentioned a couple of pages back on my observation that whites in heavily-black rural counties vote more Democratic once the black share of the population has reached 60% or so) are going to be more Democratic. The real trick here is determining what the overall share of the electorate Latinos make up in each county.


Also, I'm playing around with new color schemes for the "Who Won the White Vote?" map. This is one I'm digging at the moment:

[traininthedistance]

One big update/dump with all remaining NE states added!

VT 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 66.3%
RI 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 60.2%
MA 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 57.8%
ME 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 55.5%
CT 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 52.6%
NY 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 51.2%
NH 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 50.3%

God bless Berkshire County.

[dpmapper]

Also, I'm playing around with new color schemes for the "Who Won the White Vote?" map. This is one I'm digging at the moment:

.48 - .60 seems like a very broad range for a single shade.  Maybe split it up? 

I'd also make the lightest blue and red shades lighter - there should be less of a visual contrast between them while at the same time keeping it clear which is red and which is blue. 

[nclib]

Also, I'm playing around with new color schemes for the "Who Won the White Vote?" map. This is one I'm digging at the moment:

That map is a great idea. For the first map, it would be good to have some state outline.

I understand giving Obama all counties projected as 48% or more for consistency, though Carroll County, NH can be guaranteed white for Romney since Romney won the county 49.7%-48.9% IRL and the county is almost all-white and was projected at Obama 48%.

Edit: several counties in Iowa are in the same situation as Carroll, NH.

[Gass3268]

Also, I'm playing around with new color schemes for the "Who Won the White Vote?" map. This is one I'm digging at the moment:

That map is a great idea. For the first map, it would be good to have some state outline.

I understand giving Obama all counties projected as 48% or more for consistency, though Carroll County, NH can be guaranteed white for Romney since Romney won the county 49.7%-48.9% IRL and the county is almost all-white and was projected at Obama 48%.

Edit: several counties in Iowa are in the same situation as Carroll, NH.

I would also look at Oneida and Iron Counties in Wisconsin. Obama lost both in 2012 and they are like greater than 95% white.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley are less Democratic than Latinos in the rest of Texas: many Mexican-Americans in Brownsville, Laredo and McAllen are fourth or fifth generation Americans, who have deep roots in the United States. They're more "Tejano" than Mexican. Many of these Mexican-Americans work for the border patrol and have concerns about border security. While I doubt that they're less than 55% Democratic, this would have an impact on the estimated White vote in the Rio Grande Valley. On top of this, it's quite likely that Latino turnout and voter registration is shockingly low compared to the Latino VAP.

Obviously, this is difficult to prove without detailed local knowledge but I have family members who grew up in Matamoros. Although Brownsville is considered by many Americans to effectively be part of Mexico, many Mexicans consider Matamoros to effectively be part of the United States. Mexican-American culture in parts of the Rio Grande Valley is actually pretty "American". This cannot be said for, say, Houston or Dallas, where most Latinos are recent immigrants or the children of immigrants.

Even though I'm sure my calculations are way off based on what was mentioned earlier, I generally believe the same: Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley are more established and therefore are going to be less Democratic, while whites (for the same reason mentioned a couple of pages back on my observation that whites in heavily-black rural counties vote more Democratic once the black share of the population has reached 60% or so) are going to be more Democratic. The real trick here is determining what the overall share of the electorate Latinos make up in each county.


Also, I'm playing around with new color schemes for the "Who Won the White Vote?" map. This is one I'm digging at the moment:

Update: there's no way white voters gave Obama more than 30-40% of the vote in the Rio Grande Valley. There's a very, very strong correlation between the percentage of White voters in a precinct and McCain's percentage of the vote. This correlation holds even when Whites make up 5-10% of the VAP.

I can't fathom whites gravitating towards Obama in towns like McAllen, Brownsville and Laredo: these communities were segregated 40-50 years ago. Mexicans lived in one side of town and attended different schools. I imagine that remaining Whites recognize that the Democratic Party of desegregation and Mexican-American culture.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: there's no way white voters gave Obama more than 30-40% of the vote in the Rio Grande Valley. There's a very, very strong correlation between the percentage of White voters in a precinct and McCain's percentage of the vote. This correlation holds even when Whites make up 5-10% of the VAP.

I can't fathom whites gravitating towards Obama in towns like McAllen, Brownsville and Laredo: these communities were segregated 40-50 years ago. Mexicans lived in one side of town and attended different schools. I imagine that remaining Whites recognize that the Democratic Party of desegregation and Mexican-American culture.

Oh, I am sure that Whites are not majority D in the Rio Grande Valley. That's why the initial TX version published had plenty of expressed doubt from me when it was published. However, I do believe like I said (and like you admitted) that they would be more D than most of the rest of the state's Whites: 30-40% would be stronger D than all but the most Democratic urban counties. I actually think it's lower than that, for what it's worth: probably closer to the statewide average.

As far as the correlation goes, I don't doubt that, but there are other explanations available than the simple "1:1" theory. For instance, it's possible that while Whites are more Democratic in South Texas, Latinos may move in the opposite direction in select counties (not so much in the counties where they are super-majorities in RGV, which is where you'll see Latinos voting comparably to African-Americans). In the other cases, it is likely that White VAP versus actual turnout is much more skewed proportionally than in many other counties where whites are sizable minorities or majorities. It might be 15% of the electorate when VAP suggests 5%.


Reginald and I have been collaborating on a revised Texas formula using SSVR numbers. He compiled them and I have introduced their use into my formula, although I have yet to heavily revise their numbers into what potential turnout might resemble (since we know they'll be different to a degree). I sent him a huge write-up on all of the changes I made to produce this, but the summary is: north and east TX gets one formula for Latino support (77%); south and west (sans RGV) another (58%). Extremes on both ends were moderated by and large with the application of this formula. I've also manually adjusted a lot of the RGV since then with a seemingly reasonable and pretty consistent (in terms of what it's generating in these counties) formula.

This won't be the last update to Texas, but it's definitely closer to what is the reality than the first production.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Agreed. I think there's a strong possibility than many Whites in cities like Laredo and Brownsville are more Democratic than you'd expect due to employment in education and public administration. However, this would have to be balanced with the fact that many also work for the border patrol.

I think a linear regression model could be used to predict the White Obama percentage fairly easily.

[Torie]

What seems plausible to me is that Hispanics in more white areas, particularly more middle class conservative ones, or conservative rural areas in some instances, might be considerably more Republican than the norm for Hispanics, and if one is not careful, that might tend to overestimate the white vote percentages for the Pubs, assuming it must be high to get to the final result, when it really is about, at least in part, more Pub friendly Hispanics. Hispanics are a lot trickier to gage than blacks, when it comes to regional variations.

[ElectionsGuy]

To be very honest I think we're underestimating white Obama support in Texas, the Oklahoma/Texas border looks very unnatural for instance. I think its unrealistic for white voters to be consistently going >90% Republican in rural counties.  I also agree with what Torie said.

[Adam Griffin]

I'll just mention - in regards to the RGV commentary about Latino support - that I have already adjusted many of these far southern counties to more sensible levels of Latino support (78-90%, depending). That is why you see a drastic change in white support - in combination with the SSVR alterations - from the first attempt, as shown in the illustration.

[nclib]

Would love to see the rest of this, but for now, I crunched some data.

Best Obama:

Bronx, NY 89%
Washington, DC 87%
Prince George's, MD 87%
Manhattan, NY 81%
Philadelphia, PA 81%

Best Obama that is not entirely one city:

Prince George's, MD 87%
Berkshire, MA 76%
Suffolk, MA 75%
Windham, VT 73%
Dukes, MA 73%
Hudson, NJ 73%

Worst Obama among large cities:

Harris (Houston), TX 23%
Duval (Jacksonville), FL 25%
Oklahoma (OKC), OK 32%
Shelby (Memphis), TN 32%
Hamilton (Cincinnati), OH 34%

[Adam Griffin]

Sorry to have not had an update recently - it takes a bit of time and I did so much toward the end of my last spurt that I ran out of steam temporarily. Texas was a roadblock, of course. I haven't forgotten about this and it will be finished sooner or later.

[Ebsy]

Sorry to have not had an update recently - it takes a bit of time and I did so much toward the end of my last spurt that I ran out of steam temporarily. Texas was a roadblock, of course. I haven't forgotten about this and it will be finished sooner or later.

Famous last words for anything popular on the internet.

[nclib]

Comparing the best white Obama county in the state vs. most pro-gay county in each state in the gay marriage initiatives, since there is of course a correlation:

                  Gay      White Obama
Alabama      Sumter      Greene   
Arkansas      Pulaski      Pulaski/Washington
Florida        Monroe      Broward
Georgia       Athens-Clarke      DeKalb      
Kentucky      Fayette        Elliott
Louisiana      Orleans        Orleans
Maine         Cumberland      Cumberland
Maryland      Montgomery      Prince George's
Michigan      Washtenaw      Washtenaw
Minnesota      Hennepin      St. Louis
Mississippi      Tunica       Noxubee/Marshall
Missouri      St. Louis city      St. Louis city   
Nebraska      Douglas       Lancaster      
North Carolina      Orange      Orange
North Dakota      Grand Forks      Ransom
Ohio             Athens           Athens
Oklahoma      Cleveland      Okmulgee/Muskogee
South Carolina      Charleston      Orangeburg
Tennessee      Nashville-Davidson      Nashville-Davidson/Houston
Texas          Travis                Travis   
Virginia      Charlottesville (city)      Petersburg (city)   
Wisconsin      Dane              Dane

Many are either the same or both counties are at near the top of the other category. Others (GA, MD, VA) have the best white Obama county having a high black population, pulling down the gay marriage result.

Elliott County, KY votes on economic issues. Broward, FL has many elderly Democrats. ND is surprising--Ransom County seems pretty non-descript.

[Adam Griffin]

I've been working on this/posting updates to it during my banishment to the Other Place. I'll update all of the original posts later on, but everything is now complete except for CA, AZ, NV & AK.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks! Very Interesting. And waiting for complete picture)))

[DavidB.]

This is awesome. Great job.

[Adam Griffin]

Updated the OP map graphics, including Obama's share of the white vote for each completed state.

Here's what the EC in 2012 would have looked like if Obama carried all of the states where he received an average or above average share of the white vote (39% or greater) and Romney carried all of the states where Obama received less than the average share of the white vote (<39%). Pretty similar; only VA is the true anomaly. Even though there are 4 states remaining to calculate, it's pretty obvious how they fall in this scenario.

290-248

[TDAS04]

I believe that in 2008, Obama also received an above average share of the white vote in Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota.

[Adam Griffin]

Everything is now tentatively complete! CA will probably require some crowdsourced effort I believe in order to make as accurate as possible, but I went ahead and did the first round to get things started.

AZ, NV & AK all may require a second round of tweaking - I've done my best to take care of any immediately noticeable issues via county-level formula tweaks before uploading.

AK 2012 Obama share of the white vote: 32.7%
AZ 2012 Obama share of the white vote: 36.6%
NV 2012 Obama share of the white vote: 40.7%
CA 2012 Obama share of the white vote: 49.0%

[YaBoyNY]

Alaska is kind of interesting.

Anybody know what makes Southeastern Alaskan whites more Democratic than the rest of the state?

[TDAS04]

I noticed a couple of fairly populous counties where Obama got only 3% of whites, according to this map:  Lubbock, Texas and Lauderdale, Mississippi (the latter of which contains Meridian).

[nclib]

Great work! Costilla, CO at 81% is questionable.