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  OH-Quinnipiac: Portman trailing Strickland, crushing Sittenfeld
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Portman trailing Strickland, crushing Sittenfeld  (Read 4887 times)
IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
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« on: April 06, 2015, 07:21:11 am »

Portman (R)..... 39%
Strickland (D).... 48%

Portman (R)... 47%
Sittenfeld (D).... 24%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2183

Something tells me that their PA and OH numbers are fishy.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2015, 07:38:47 am »

Those numbers are really shocking. I wouldn't have expected Portman to be down so badly.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2015, 09:20:57 am »

Sittenfield, I don't know why you are running, but plse leave the race.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2015, 09:25:05 am »

#Ready4Strickland!
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2015, 10:15:12 am »

Dominating.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2015, 10:16:43 am »

The Wave...
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Castro
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« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2015, 10:19:52 am »

Yeah I'm gonna call bs on this one, even Sittenfield can't be down that much and even Strickland shouldn't be up that much.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2015, 10:23:33 am »

Yeah I'm gonna call bs on this one, even Sittenfield can't be down that much and even Strickland shouldn't be up that much.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2015, 10:36:58 am »

Sorry but this is not realistic at all.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2015, 10:45:10 am »

Doesn't Quinnipiac have an outrageous actual margin of error on most polls?
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The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
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« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2015, 11:13:45 am »

Quinnipiac's numbers aren't adding up. They seem to think that OH is as Democratic leaning as NM, and PA is as Republican leaning as AZ. I'll buy that Portman's vulnerable, but even in a Democratic wave, he wouldn't lose by 9 points.
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: April 06, 2015, 01:50:43 pm »

Portman and Strickland are probably roughly tied right now, so a poll showing Strickland up by a few points isn't too far out of reality, but Strickland's not up 9 points. He's just not.
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« Reply #12 on: April 06, 2015, 01:54:51 pm »

Yeah I'm gonna call bs on this one, even Sittenfield can't be down that much and even Strickland shouldn't be up that much.

Actually Sittenfield is probably down by more, Strickland probably leads by 4-5% right now.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2015, 01:59:40 pm »

Portman's biggest weakness is that he's kept a very low profile for the most part, and as a result is not very well-known in his own state. It will allow Strickland to define Portman if Portman doesn't do a good enough job of re-introducing himself to Ohio. Richard Burr is similar.

That being said, I doubt Strickland is up by 10.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2015, 02:01:29 pm »

Name Recognition. I completely understand Portman being down, but Strickland will not keep it up.

Also LOL @ the portman v. sittenfeld margin (though that is also a name recognition issue that would be widdled down if Sittenfeld was the nominee)
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #15 on: April 06, 2015, 02:25:25 pm »

Those numbers are really shocking. I wouldn't have expected Portman to be down so badly.

it is a garbage poll. Just like Toomey up 13 is garbage
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The Cleveland Gravelier
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« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2015, 02:37:59 pm »

There's no way Strickland's leading by that much, and if he is it won't last. Ohioans don't remember the negative political drama and recession from 5 years ago - they remember Strickland as this folksy, nice, "common guy" type of candidate. Strickland's approval was in the toilet in 2010 and that's after a barrage of ads by Kasich that managed to convince voters Strickland was responsible for the +400,000 jobs lost, the credit downgrades, the budget deficit etc. Portman's going to do the same thing again only he'll have a lot more cash to spend than Kasich did. Just keep that in mind.

Plus FWIW, Portman's favorable ratings while they are lower than Strickland's, are going up faster than his unfavorable's.

I'm kind of curious though why they didn't poll the regions. Because with a sizable gap between Portman/P.G. and Portman/Strickland here, I could only imagine they oversampled Appalachia.

Overall, Strickland (or Sittenfeld if he magically became nominee) will lose to Portman. Dude has set himself up to be re-elected and will outperform whoever the Presidential nominee is. Strickland's faults  are in his inability to appeal to big city voters and he has a horrible retread of baggage while Sittenfeld can't make up for his name ID in time before Portman would define him.

It's just a question of whether we should run and lose with an old guy who has no future or a young, rising star who definitely has a bright future ahead of him and as his 90% of nobody knowing who he is shows, would help him out immensely with this statewide run.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2015, 02:40:42 pm »

Well, at least Quinnipiac is equal opportunity for skewed samples.
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2015, 04:16:41 pm »

There's no way Strickland's leading by that much, and if he is it won't last. Ohioans don't remember the negative political drama and recession from 5 years ago - they remember Strickland as this folksy, nice, "common guy" type of candidate. Strickland's approval was in the toilet in 2010 and that's after a barrage of ads by Kasich that managed to convince voters Strickland was responsible for the +400,000 jobs lost, the credit downgrades, the budget deficit etc. Portman's going to do the same thing again only he'll have a lot more cash to spend than Kasich did. Just keep that in mind.

Plus FWIW, Portman's favorable ratings while they are lower than Strickland's, are going up faster than his unfavorable's.

I'm kind of curious though why they didn't poll the regions. Because with a sizable gap between Portman/P.G. and Portman/Strickland here, I could only imagine they oversampled Appalachia.

Overall, Strickland (or Sittenfeld if he magically became nominee) will lose to Portman. Dude has set himself up to be re-elected and will outperform whoever the Presidential nominee is. Strickland's faults  are in his inability to appeal to big city voters and he has a horrible retread of baggage while Sittenfeld can't make up for his name ID in time before Portman would define him.

It's just a question of whether we should run and lose with an old guy who has no future or a young, rising star who definitely has a bright future ahead of him and as his 90% of nobody knowing who he is shows, would help him out immensely with this statewide run.

You're just mad Sittenfield is gonna get his ass handed to him in the primary Tongue
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Brittain33
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« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2015, 04:29:05 pm »

Quinnipiac's numbers aren't adding up. They seem to think that OH is as Democratic leaning as NM, and PA is as Republican leaning as AZ. I'll buy that Portman's vulnerable, but even in a Democratic wave, he wouldn't lose by 9 points.

I'm not a big optimistic, but I disagree. The evidence from Ohio is that in a wave, basically ok incumbents can lose by big numbers.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2015, 05:03:41 pm »
« Edited: April 06, 2015, 05:05:13 pm by OC »

Not only that, Kasich was the only statewide official that was able to break the hammerlock Dems have had on statewide, not local elections. Minus 2010 in which Lee Fisher fizzled. Vonovich, DeWine and Josh Mandal all who ran for Senate, but no longer in office anymore, this will go Dem in 2016, like in 2012 and 2006.

Me thinks, Dems win Pa, OH, WI and IL. Public policy polling will have better news for Dems in Pa.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2015, 05:24:51 pm »

Not only that, Kasich was the only statewide official that was able to break the hammerlock Dems have had on statewide, not local elections. Minus 2010 in which Lee Fisher fizzled. Vonovich, DeWine and Josh Mandal all who ran for Senate, but no longer in office anymore, this will go Dem in 2016, like in 2012 and 2006.

Me thinks, Dems win Pa, OH, WI and IL. Public policy polling will have better news for Dems in Pa.

PPP has already polled PA and found Toomey ahead, just like everyone else. The race is toss-up at best for the dems, and might even be Lean R.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: April 06, 2015, 05:35:28 pm »

Not only that, Kasich was the only statewide official that was able to break the hammerlock Dems have had on statewide, not local elections. Minus 2010 in which Lee Fisher fizzled. Vonovich, DeWine and Josh Mandal all who ran for Senate, but no longer in office anymore, this will go Dem in 2016, like in 2012 and 2006.

Me thinks, Dems win Pa, OH, WI and IL. Public policy polling will have better news for Dems in Pa.

PPP has already polled PA and found Toomey ahead, just like everyone else. The race is toss-up at best for the dems, and might even be Lean R.

N O that is wrong. Keep in mind that convention  +  hilary coattails could ouste tomey. if anything this race is lean D E M not G O P.

Trying to be an OC clone will only encourage him more, so I'd advise against it.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #23 on: April 06, 2015, 05:48:01 pm »

Well the last PPP favored Sestak. Cmon Indy, even lackluster candidates Gore and Kerry lost the presidency and won Pa convincingly.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #24 on: April 06, 2015, 05:56:51 pm »

Well Clinton is running ahead in Pa, and they certainly wont win without it.
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