Virginia 2015 Midterms - Megathread

[Mr. Reactionary]

A few weeks old, but Democrats look like they have a good recuit in SD20:

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Adkins isn't that good of a recruit ... although I'll probably end up voting for her anyway. SD20 is my area and I've proudly voted against Sen. Stanley twice now despite agreeing with him on most issues. He's pretty shady. Adkins will still lose though.

[moderatevoter]

So a new poll was released recently:

Obama is at 44/50. McAuliffe has a 52% approval rating (!)

The poll also has voters' thoughts on redistricting, the McDonnell trial, and other relevant topics.

[Türkisblau]

So a new poll was released recently:

Obama is at 44/50. McAuliffe has a 52% approval rating (!)

The poll also has voters' thoughts on redistricting, the McDonnell trial, and other relevant topics.

I was actually very surprised as to how environmentalist Virginians are.

[Miles]

Another retirement, this time from Delegate Rob Krupicka of Arlexandria (HD-45). Obviously Safe D.

Actually, from the map, if they had drawn the HD-45 a few blocks differently, this would be my district.

[windjammer]

So what's going on in VA?
Can democrats retake the state senate? Will they make gains in the state house as well??

[Hifly]

They will not gain the senate and will make minimal gains in the house. Michael Futrell's seat could even revert back to the GOP.

[Türkisblau]

The Democrats have a new chair to replace the retiring Dwight Jones. It is Susan Swecker of Richmond and Monterey.

[smoltchanov]

So what's going on in VA?
Can democrats retake the state senate? Will they make gains in the state house as well??

Few seats in state House - probably yes. But - few. Senate - probably no.

[Skill and Chance]

So what's going on in VA?
Can democrats retake the state senate? Will they make gains in the state house as well??

Few seats in state House - probably yes. But - few.Senate - probably no.

[/b]

They need to win all the districts Warner '14 and Herring '13 won in order to get a 20/20 tie and control through the LG.  That includes an open district in Richmond that has moved left each cycle since 2008 and is now basically even with the state.  Elsewhere, there is an R in an outer NOVA Obama 2008/otherwise narrowly Republican district who has made Todd Akin style comments and a D who barely won a special election in an Eastern Shore/Norfolk district drawn to be Likely D.  The 18 other D districts and 19 other R districts are basically safe. I'd call it a tossup for control.

[Mr.Phips]

So what's going on in VA?
Can democrats retake the state senate? Will they make gains in the state house as well??

Few seats in state House - probably yes. But - few.Senate - probably no.

[/b]

They need to win all the districts Warner '14 and Herring '13 won in order to get a 20/20 tie and control through the LG.  That includes an open district in Richmond that has moved left each cycle since 2008 and is now basically even with the state.  Elsewhere, there is an R in an outer NOVA Obama 2008/otherwise narrowly Republican district who has made Todd Akin style comments and a D who barely won a special election in an Eastern Shore/Norfolk district drawn to be Likely D.  The 18 other D districts and 19 other R districts are basically safe. I'd call it a tossup for control.

For some reason, I still feel that Dems will fall a little short in the Richmond open seat.  They need a good minority turnout to win there, which is very tough in an off year.

[windjammer]

I finally found a recent article about the 2015 state senate election. Your thought, Virginians?