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Author Topic: CO-Quinnipiac: Sen. Bennet (D) down in early look  (Read 4816 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: April 14, 2015, 06:41:57 am »

Colorado

In an early look at the 2016 U.S. Senate race in Colorado, U.S. Rep. Michael Coffman, a Republican, runs better than his wife, State Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, against Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet. Matchups show:

    Michael Coffman gets 43 percent to Bennet's 40 percent.
    Bennet leads Cynthia Coffman 44 - 36 percent.

Colorado voters approve 46 - 29 percent of the job Bennet is doing and give him a 40 - 27 percent favorability rating. Michael Coffman gets a 30 - 23 percent favorability rating, with 47 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

For Cynthia Coffman, 75 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Voters approve 46 - 31 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner is doing.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2186
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2015, 06:46:57 am »

A bit strange that Bennet is down with his relatively solid favorable (+13) and approval ratings (+17), while Coffman is only +7.

Also, how is it possible for Cynthia Coffman to be elected State Attorney General and only have a 25% name recognition ?
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« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2015, 07:27:14 am »

But muh 272 freiwal!
Anyway, Michael Coffman would be the best Republican candidate by far.
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« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2015, 07:32:32 am »

I misread this poll as Cynthia being the only one tested. I'd be ecstatic if [Mike] Coffman took this seat as it likely means Romanoff could go to Washington without beating him! Agreed that Coffman is a wonderful candidate.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2015, 07:50:30 am by SMilo »Logged
Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2015, 08:17:21 am »

Is this the same poll that had Hillary at a consistent 41-42%, with some Republicans above and some below? Seems like Bennet is running as Generic D right now in Q poll.

Quote
   U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida gets 41 percent to Clinton's 40 percent;
    She ties former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 41 - 41 percent;
    Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets 42 percent to her 41 percent;
    Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas;
    She gets 41 percent to Bush's 38 percent;
    Clinton gets 41 percent to 39 percent for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie.
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« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2015, 08:38:09 am »

But muh 272 freiwal!
Anyway, Michael Coffman would be the best Republican candidate by far.

You better hope that's not true because Bennet would probably beat Mike Coffman, probably by 4-6%.  Coffman isn't an awful candidate by any means and has beaten a weak opponent (Joe Miklosi) in a slightly Democratic year and a strong opponent (Andrew Romanoff) in one of the biggest Republican waves in history despite being in a Dem-trending swing district.  The thing is that Coffman has said some really dumb things and cast some extremely damaging votes back when he held a safe R district dominated by blood red Douglas County.  

Additionally, the last time Coffman faced a strong opponent in a statewide race was when he ran against Ken Gordon for SoS in 2006 and he won by the skin of his teeth.  Yes, it was 2006, but Colorado has gotten more Democratic than it was in 2006 to the point that even Gardner would've lost had 2014 been another 2010-level wave despite running a perfect campaign, his opponent running a weak one, and the local media being completely in the tank for him (none of which are gaurenteed to be the case of Coffman challenges Bennet).  

Honestly, Nevada is a much better pickup opportunity for the Republicans if Roberson can get through the primary (which is far from certain, I could easily see Dan Schwartz beating him in the primary and blowing any chance of a Republican pickup there, especially if Hutchison runs and that egomaniacal nutjob in the Controller's office doesn't).  Of course, the Democrats still have an edge there too at this point, but I digress.

Ultimately, at this ridiculously early date, the Republicans' best play in Colorado is to save Coffman for the open Governor's race in 2018 which he could win against a weak Democrat and run someone like Cynthia Coffman or Walker Stapleton who wouldn't have to give up their position to run, would run a competent campaign, act as Bennet-screwing up/wave insurance, and force the Democrats to spend a lot of money defending a seat that may well be just out of reach for the Republicans this cycle.  As a Democrat, I'm hoping Mike Coffman is smart enough not to run (we may pickup his seat in 2016 anyway) and Scott Tipton decides to run instead (which would open up a competitive seat and give the Republicans one of their weaker potential candidates).

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« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2015, 09:39:31 am »

A bit strange that Bennet is down with his relatively solid favorable (+13) and approval ratings (+17), while Coffman is only +7.

Also, how is it possible for Cynthia Coffman to be elected State Attorney General and only have a 25% name recognition ?
Really weird indeed. Plush the fact that way more people know about Bennet than they do about Coffman. The guy isn't known to 47% of the people polled yet he gets 43%.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2015, 09:57:23 am »

Tipton's a better candidate than Coffman, but whatever works man. Either him or Walker Stapleton would probably be good enough for a battle but probably not good enough to actually win. We'll see though.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2015, 10:19:08 am by maxwell »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2015, 10:13:06 am »

Color me surprised. It seems like VA is a tad more Dem a state than Colorado at the moment.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2015, 10:44:08 am »

Well, Hilary doesn't poll that well in CO, anyways, and Dems only need OH or CO to win the electors needed to win presidency.

Strickland can win to offset this loss in CO, but Dems need PA, WI, IL, and NV and then one from NH and FL to win senate, then.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2015, 10:55:04 am »

Does Quinnipiac have a history of being bad pollsters in CO? I seem to remember them being terrible at polling there.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2015, 11:00:23 am »

Does Quinnipiac have a history of being bad pollsters in CO? I seem to remember them being terrible at polling there.

Yes they have.
How does it make sense that 46% approve Bennett but only 43% would vote for him? Most senators would kill to have +17 approval ratings.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2015, 11:08:03 am »

Does Quinnipiac have a history of being bad pollsters in CO? I seem to remember them being terrible at polling there.

Yes they have.
How does it make sense that 46% approve Bennett but only 43% would vote for him? Most senators would kill to have +17 approval ratings.

It'd odd, but stuff like this happens:

In 2006, Lincoln Chafee lost his Senate seat in RI - despite having a 65% approval rating in the exit poll.
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« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2015, 11:26:27 am »

Does Quinnipiac have a history of being bad pollsters in CO? I seem to remember them being terrible at polling there.

Yes they have.
How does it make sense that 46% approve Bennett but only 43% would vote for him? Most senators would kill to have +17 approval ratings.

It'd odd, but stuff like this happens:

In 2006, Lincoln Chafee lost his Senate seat in RI - despite having a 65% approval rating in the exit poll.

Wait, what? How is that possible?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2015, 11:36:11 am »

Does Quinnipiac have a history of being bad pollsters in CO? I seem to remember them being terrible at polling there.

Yes they have.
How does it make sense that 46% approve Bennett but only 43% would vote for him? Most senators would kill to have +17 approval ratings.

It'd odd, but stuff like this happens:

In 2006, Lincoln Chafee lost his Senate seat in RI - despite having a 65% approval rating in the exit poll.

Yes, but Colorado isn't Rhode Island where the partisan lean of the state was too high for even a well-liked Republican like Chafee to overcome.
If this was Wyoming or Oklahoma we were talking about then yes, it would make sense.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #15 on: April 14, 2015, 12:04:05 pm »

Color me surprised. It seems like VA is a tad more Dem a state than Colorado at the moment.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2015, 12:18:07 pm »

Color me surprised. It seems like VA is a tad more Dem a state than Colorado at the moment.
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« Reply #17 on: April 14, 2015, 12:24:33 pm »

But muh 272 freiwal!
Anyway, Michael Coffman would be the best Republican candidate by far.

You better hope that's not true because Bennet would probably beat Mike Coffman, probably by 4-6%.  Coffman isn't an awful candidate by any means and has beaten a weak opponent (Joe Miklosi) in a slightly Democratic year and a strong opponent (Andrew Romanoff) in one of the biggest Republican waves in history despite being in a Dem-trending swing district.  The thing is that Coffman has said some really dumb things and cast some extremely damaging votes back when he held a safe R district dominated by blood red Douglas County.  

Additionally, the last time Coffman faced a strong opponent in a statewide race was when he ran against Ken Gordon for SoS in 2006 and he won by the skin of his teeth.  Yes, it was 2006, but Colorado has gotten more Democratic than it was in 2006 to the point that even Gardner would've lost had 2014 been another 2010-level wave despite running a perfect campaign, his opponent running a weak one, and the local media being completely in the tank for him (none of which are gaurenteed to be the case of Coffman challenges Bennet).  

Honestly, Nevada is a much better pickup opportunity for the Republicans if Roberson can get through the primary (which is far from certain, I could easily see Dan Schwartz beating him in the primary and blowing any chance of a Republican pickup there, especially if Hutchison runs and that egomaniacal nutjob in the Controller's office doesn't).  Of course, the Democrats still have an edge there too at this point, but I digress.

Ultimately, at this ridiculously early date, the Republicans' best play in Colorado is to save Coffman for the open Governor's race in 2018 which he could win against a weak Democrat and run someone like Cynthia Coffman or Walker Stapleton who wouldn't have to give up their position to run, would run a competent campaign, act as Bennet-screwing up/wave insurance, and force the Democrats to spend a lot of money defending a seat that may well be just out of reach for the Republicans this cycle.  As a Democrat, I'm hoping Mike Coffman is smart enough not to run (we may pickup his seat in 2016 anyway) and Scott Tipton decides to run instead (which would open up a competitive seat and give the Republicans one of their weaker potential candidates).


Well, IDK. Coffman may be the only one the Republicans have. Though Bennet is still the favorite, obviously.
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« Reply #18 on: April 14, 2015, 12:43:23 pm »

Quinnipiac seems to have a 'reverse' PPP issue - their polls seem to generally show approvals high, whereas PPP seems to always find approvals on the lower end.

If I recall, Quinnipiac was accurate in their final Colorado poll, but otherwise, they had a fairly significant Republican lean.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: April 14, 2015, 12:51:56 pm »

With a fairly popular gov and an unpopular senator, you get polls like this. But, Bennnett, unlike Udall has a presidential race constituency. Immigration will be on ballot this election, in which Udall didnt have. Which Hillary is in mainstream on.

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« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2015, 02:18:41 pm »

Quinnipiac has released some strange polls recently. I wouldn't make too much of this one. Still Lean D.
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« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2015, 02:21:15 pm »

Does Quinnipiac have a history of being bad pollsters in CO? I seem to remember them being terrible at polling there.

Yes. Junk poll!
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« Reply #22 on: April 14, 2015, 02:27:25 pm »

Quinnipiac seems to have a 'reverse' PPP issue - their polls seem to generally show approvals high, whereas PPP seems to always find approvals on the lower end.

If I recall, Quinnipiac was accurate in their final Colorado poll, but otherwise, they had a fairly significant Republican lean.

It's pretty insane too. For those that didn't open the file, McAuliffe is neatly at +30 and the other two govs are way above water too. So much for the "Virginia is for haters" meme. I was really loving that.
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« Reply #23 on: April 14, 2015, 03:42:16 pm »

Quinnipiac is garbage in CO. I'm surprised they're not too ashamed to poll here at all after their disastrous 2012 and 2014 polls!
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« Reply #24 on: April 14, 2015, 03:52:08 pm »

Quinnipiac seems to have a 'reverse' PPP issue - their polls seem to generally show approvals high, whereas PPP seems to always find approvals on the lower end.

If I recall, Quinnipiac was accurate in their final Colorado poll, but otherwise, they had a fairly significant Republican lean.

It's pretty insane too. For those that didn't open the file, McAuliffe is neatly at +30 and the other two govs are way above water too. So much for the "Virginia is for haters" meme. I was really loving that.

No, Virginia is for lovers. I think you're confusing Virginia with our neighbor to the south. They seem to hate all of their politicians.
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