AZ-PPP: McCain in big trouble in primary.

[Skye]

+4 approval among Hispanics but -15 approval among Whites? What is this?

[pbrower2a]

My safe prediction: we are going to see far more polls involving Arizona.

[Maxwell]

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.

2012 was not a "Democratic Wave" year and Carmona only lost by 3%.

It was a Democratic wave, though.

Carmona outperformed Obama despite Flake being a better fit for the state than Romney was.

[Torie]

My interpretation of all of this, is that McCain has little to worry about it. He will whip them all - easily.

[Maxwell]

My interpretation of all of this, is that McCain has little to worry about it. He will whip them all - easily.

This post makes no sense.

[publicunofficial]

McCain 2016 = McConnell 2014

[Maxwell]

McCain 2016 = McConnell 2014

Matt Bevin was never as close as Kelli Ward is.

[publicunofficial]

McCain 2016 = McConnell 2014

Matt Bevin was never as close as Kelli Ward is.

And yet the end result will be the same. McCain scoots past the primary after failing to attract a strong opponent, then proceeds to win a close yet uncompetitive race against whoever the Democrats land.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems are advised to invest heavily in IL; CO; NH; WI, and Pa. That is the 272 frewal.

[Nyvin]

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.

2012 was not a "Democratic Wave" year and Carmona only lost by 3%.

It was a Democratic wave, though.

How?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm still standing by John McCain. All of his potential primary challengers are useless.

Maybe. But there is no one more useless in Washington than the whiny perpetually bitter John McCain. God I hope he loses, primary or otherwise. I'd be okay with Senator Richard Carmona or Senator Fred Duval (surprising he is the closest, though he did seem to run an able if silent campaign for Governor) if it meant no more McCain.

Carmona/Duval are not going to defeat McCain. Sorry, but not happening. Sinema or Kirkpatrick might though....

Carmona and Duval were both closer though...

Duval totally bungled last year's governor's race, and seeing as Carmona couldn't win in an open seat in a democratic wave, it's difficult to see him beating McCain. I could see it happen with him before Duval though.

Sinema won by double digits in her basically even district last year, and Kirkpatrick won fairly comfortably when literally everyone predicted her defeat. Seems like pretty good electability records to me.

2012 was not a "Democratic Wave" year and Carmona only lost by 3%.

It was a Democratic wave, though.

How

While it was not a democratic wave in the house, it was a democratic wave elsewhere.

Obama swept 8 of the 9 main swing states, including in Florida where nearly everyone predicted his defeat, and almost won North Carolina.

In the Senate, democrats defeated a popular former governor in WI, won in ND and MT where they were supposed to be dead meat, defeated one of the best NM republicans by more than 5 points, won PA by 9 with hardly any campaigning, won FL by 12 against what was supposed to be a strong candidate, and won CT by 12 with an extremely liberal nominee against someone who appeared strong early on. The only possibly winnable race that they lost was in AZ, and even there they only lost by 3.

Among governors' races, they held WA and MT despite great candidates on the other side, they almost won in deeply conservative Indiana, Shumlin got what is so far his only comfortable victory in VT, Hassan won NH by double digits despite polls showing a (somewhat) close race, Nixon was easily reelected in MO, and Tomblin held on fairly comfortably in WV. The only gubernatorial disappointment was in NC - everywhere else, democrats either met or beat expectations.

Sure, it's not as big as 2010 or 2014 were for the republicans, but still a wave.

[Ebsy]

You forgot the disappointment in Indiana.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

You forgot the disappointment in Indiana.

Since they did come pretty close there, I don't really consider it much of a disappointment given how conservative the state is. Gregg/Ritz will have an uphill climb in 2016 - even with the religious freedom incident, it remains a Likely R race.

[Zioneer]

I would contend that 2012 wasn't a Dem wave, but that many of the Republican candidates were genuinely bad candidates (terrible campaigners, frequent gaffers, etc), and presidential turnout did the rest. I wouldn't say it was a Dem wave at all.

Like Tommy Thompson in WI, he used to be a great candidate, but for whatever reason, he turned out to be a terrible one in 2012. And I don't think it was a wave that beat him. It was himself.

[136or142]

I would contend that 2012 wasn't a Dem wave, but that many of the Republican candidates were genuinely bad candidates (terrible campaigners, frequent gaffers, etc), and presidential turnout did the rest. I wouldn't say it was a Dem wave at all.

Like Tommy Thompson in WI, he used to be a great candidate, but for whatever reason, he turned out to be a terrible one in 2012. And I don't think it was a wave that beat him. It was himself.

He had health problems (a heart attack or something) shortly before the election.

[Flake]

New Poll: Arizona Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2015-05-03

Summary: D: 36%, R: 42%, U: 22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details