CO-Quinnipiac: Sen. Bennet (D) down in early look (user search)
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  CO-Quinnipiac: Sen. Bennet (D) down in early look (search mode)
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Author Topic: CO-Quinnipiac: Sen. Bennet (D) down in early look  (Read 6498 times)
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
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« on: April 14, 2015, 08:38:09 AM »

But muh 272 freiwal!
Anyway, Michael Coffman would be the best Republican candidate by far.

You better hope that's not true because Bennet would probably beat Mike Coffman, probably by 4-6%.  Coffman isn't an awful candidate by any means and has beaten a weak opponent (Joe Miklosi) in a slightly Democratic year and a strong opponent (Andrew Romanoff) in one of the biggest Republican waves in history despite being in a Dem-trending swing district.  The thing is that Coffman has said some really dumb things and cast some extremely damaging votes back when he held a safe R district dominated by blood red Douglas County.  

Additionally, the last time Coffman faced a strong opponent in a statewide race was when he ran against Ken Gordon for SoS in 2006 and he won by the skin of his teeth.  Yes, it was 2006, but Colorado has gotten more Democratic than it was in 2006 to the point that even Gardner would've lost had 2014 been another 2010-level wave despite running a perfect campaign, his opponent running a weak one, and the local media being completely in the tank for him (none of which are gaurenteed to be the case of Coffman challenges Bennet).  

Honestly, Nevada is a much better pickup opportunity for the Republicans if Roberson can get through the primary (which is far from certain, I could easily see Dan Schwartz beating him in the primary and blowing any chance of a Republican pickup there, especially if Hutchison runs and that egomaniacal nutjob in the Controller's office doesn't).  Of course, the Democrats still have an edge there too at this point, but I digress.

Ultimately, at this ridiculously early date, the Republicans' best play in Colorado is to save Coffman for the open Governor's race in 2018 which he could win against a weak Democrat and run someone like Cynthia Coffman or Walker Stapleton who wouldn't have to give up their position to run, would run a competent campaign, act as Bennet-screwing up/wave insurance, and force the Democrats to spend a lot of money defending a seat that may well be just out of reach for the Republicans this cycle.  As a Democrat, I'm hoping Mike Coffman is smart enough not to run (we may pickup his seat in 2016 anyway) and Scott Tipton decides to run instead (which would open up a competitive seat and give the Republicans one of their weaker potential candidates).

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