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  TX-PPP: It's really early, but Hillary could take the Lone Star State
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Author Topic: TX-PPP: It's really early, but Hillary could take the Lone Star State  (Read 9874 times)
politicallefty
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« Reply #25 on: February 08, 2013, 05:34:29 am »

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old timey villain
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« Reply #26 on: February 20, 2013, 10:30:13 pm »

I thought Rubio would do well with Hispanics in TX. That's surprsing.

I don't think she'll win this state, but there's no doubt now that if she does run it will be a toss-up, slight GOP lean.  

From what I understand, Mexican Americans aren't too fond of Cuban Americans. I mean, they're both Hispanics but they came to the US under entirely different circumstances. Cuban immigrants are still popularly known as the wealthy white elite who fled to the US because their plantations were put under govt control and still expected everyone's deepest sympathies, while the Mexican immigrants were treated like absolute sh*t south of the border (usually due to their mestizo race) and came to America only to be treated even worse. So when Marco Rubio spins a yarn about his "American Dream" I think a lot of Mexicans all execute one collective eye roll.
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King
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« Reply #27 on: February 21, 2013, 05:40:52 pm »

I thought Rubio would do well with Hispanics in TX. That's surprsing.

I don't think she'll win this state, but there's no doubt now that if she does run it will be a toss-up, slight GOP lean.  

From what I understand, Mexican Americans aren't too fond of Cuban Americans. I mean, they're both Hispanics but they came to the US under entirely different circumstances. Cuban immigrants are still popularly known as the wealthy white elite who fled to the US because their plantations were put under govt control and still expected everyone's deepest sympathies, while the Mexican immigrants were treated like absolute sh*t south of the border (usually due to their mestizo race) and came to America only to be treated even worse. So when Marco Rubio spins a yarn about his "American Dream" I think a lot of Mexicans all execute one collective eye roll.

Plus, his last name is Rubio, which might be Cuban but is not a common surname in any of the rest of Latin America.  If you don't know who he is, or even if you have seen him on TV but know nothing about him, you'd just assume he was some Italian guy.
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Obamanation
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« Reply #28 on: February 21, 2013, 06:42:10 pm »

I thought Rubio would do well with Hispanics in TX. That's surprsing.

I don't think she'll win this state, but there's no doubt now that if she does run it will be a toss-up, slight GOP lean.  

From what I understand, Mexican Americans aren't too fond of Cuban Americans. I mean, they're both Hispanics but they came to the US under entirely different circumstances. Cuban immigrants are still popularly known as the wealthy white elite who fled to the US because their plantations were put under govt control and still expected everyone's deepest sympathies, while the Mexican immigrants were treated like absolute sh*t south of the border (usually due to their mestizo race) and came to America only to be treated even worse. So when Marco Rubio spins a yarn about his "American Dream" I think a lot of Mexicans all execute one collective eye roll.

Exactly what my Latino friends say. I couldn't have put it better myself.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: February 24, 2013, 04:40:22 pm »

Saying that Marco Rubio should do well among Hispanics is like saying that John Hickenlooper should deliver the German-American vote.

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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #30 on: February 24, 2013, 04:44:38 pm »

Why is the black vote so Republican (Hillary is under 80%, and the Republicans are well above 10-15%)?
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Blackacre
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« Reply #31 on: February 24, 2013, 04:49:59 pm »

Why is the black vote so Republican (Hillary is under 80%, and the Republicans are well above 10-15%)?

Because of lingering sentiments from 2008?
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Jackson
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« Reply #32 on: February 25, 2013, 12:10:41 am »

Why is the black vote so Republican (Hillary is under 80%, and the Republicans are well above 10-15%)?

PPP is quite bad at polling black people.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #33 on: February 25, 2013, 12:25:26 am »

Why is the black vote so Republican (Hillary is under 80%, and the Republicans are well above 10-15%)?

PPP is quite bad at polling black people.

Very much so. In GA in December, PPP found that 15% of African-Americans wanted to secede from the Union because of Obama's re-election. I also recall a PPP poll of NC (FFS, it's their home state) that said 25-30% were voting for McCrory. 
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #34 on: February 25, 2013, 06:12:37 pm »

pretty big margin of error on the black people sample though, keep that in mind
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #35 on: February 21, 2017, 12:16:24 am »

Big Surprise: Texas is Safe R. Hillary maxed out the urban areas and still only got 43.2% of the vote. There just aren't enough votes to elect a democrat in Texas.
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Lok
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« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2017, 12:25:19 am »

Big Surprise: Texas is Safe R. Hillary maxed out the urban areas and still only got 43.2% of the vote. There just aren't enough votes to elect a democrat in Texas.
There is a lot of untapped potential in the suburbs.
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Vosem
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« Reply #37 on: February 21, 2017, 12:40:14 am »

Election Day 2016: Hillary Clinton has defeated Chris Christie in DC and Oklahoma by 45-43...

Haha, if only I'd used Utah and Rhode Island as the examples...
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Pericles
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« Reply #38 on: February 21, 2017, 01:28:45 am »

Not quite unfortunately but Trump's win in Texas was surprisingly weak, his 9% margin was half that of Mitt Romney's 18% margin in 2012.
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badgate
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« Reply #39 on: February 21, 2017, 02:43:57 am »

Big Surprise: Texas is Safe R. Hillary maxed out the urban areas and still only got 43.2% of the vote. There just aren't enough votes to elect a democrat in Texas.

Ummm...No? Have you seen how other urban areas of the country have trended once Democrats broke through? Look at NOVA, San Diego, Los Angeles, the Bay Area, Orlando, Miami, Atlanta. Hillary's numbers are by no means the Democratic ceiling, at least long-term. If Democrats can win 2/3 in Dallas; 60% in Harris and Bexar; and flip Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Williamson, and Hays, they probably win the state, or come damn-near close.

Denton may be the hardest to crack of those. Or hays
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #40 on: February 21, 2017, 09:17:08 pm »

Big Surprise: Texas is Safe R. Hillary maxed out the urban areas and still only got 43.2% of the vote. There just aren't enough votes to elect a democrat in Texas.

Ummm...No? Have you seen how other urban areas of the country have trended once Democrats broke through? Look at NOVA, San Diego, Los Angeles, the Bay Area, Orlando, Miami, Atlanta. Hillary's numbers are by no means the Democratic ceiling, at least long-term. If Democrats can win 2/3 in Dallas; 60% in Harris and Bexar; and flip Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Williamson, and Hays, they probably win the state, or come damn-near close.

Denton may be the hardest to crack of those. Or hays

Based upon the 2016 Presidential Swings towards Clinton in wealthy parts of Harris County, that I have pulled thus far (Still haven't run numbers on Fort Bend & Montgomery), PNM's statement regarding how once there are major breakthroughs in relatively Middle/Upper-Middle Class/Wealthy communities can swing hard and fast.... Are the numbers we are seeing in relatively wealthy Anglo areas of Harris temporary confined solely to the '16 GE, confined to one particular Republican Pres nominee, or a symptom of a major shift towards the Democratic Party at the Presidential Level (Down-ballots will likely follow soon thereafter in that scenario).

Here's a thread where various individuals have been pulling numbers from the wealthiest communities in America...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.50

The rate that things are going, PNMs numbers in Dallas, Bexar, and Harris don't look unrealistic at all in the near future.... Fort Bend was not mentioned, but looks to be a county that could well keep swing further Democratic after flipping this year for the first time in decades....

The key to making Texas more competitive is obviously also in the burbs of DFW---which is not an area of which I am personally not extremely familiar.

So @ Badgate--- why do you consider Denton (Or Hays) to be harder to crack than the others?

Curious as the reason, since you are the only resident Texan expert I have seen posted on this thread thus far.... Smiley


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Jeppe
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« Reply #41 on: February 23, 2017, 08:04:21 am »

Texas Hispanics generally have very low turnout, sometimes at about 20% of the eligible population. If future Democrats can increase that number in South Texas and the inner cities, while pulling suburbanites further to the party, then Texas is definitely winnable.

Honestly, with the trends in the Midwest, states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas have to start being more favourable for the Dems if they want to win future elections. The white working class shift didn't happen overnight in 2016 with Trump, it's been happening since Obama's re-election in 2012, and it doesn't look like it's gonna slow anytime soon.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #42 on: February 23, 2017, 11:11:53 am »

Big Surprise: Texas is Safe R. Hillary maxed out the urban areas and still only got 43.2% of the vote. There just aren't enough votes to elect a democrat in Texas.
There is a lot of untapped potential in the suburbs.

What makes you say that?  Trump was the worst possible candidate for these voters, and he almost won 60% of them!  Let's stop acting like the rural areas are keeping TX red and the metro areas are just overwhelmed by rural voters.  Rural voters were EIGHT PERCENT of voters in the Texas exit polls.  That is EIGHT OUT OF ONE HUNDRED, lol.  Suburban voters made up 48% of the voters, and they voted 58% for Trump.  Republicans have Texas BECAUSE they have a solid base in the suburbs, not because the suburbs are a swing region and GOP voters outvote them/get just enough there.

The Texas exit polls match the popular vote pretty well, and some simple math says the GOP coalition was made up as follows:

54% Suburban, 35% Urban, 11% Rural.  Republicans would have won Texas without a SINGLE rural vote in 2016.  The suburbs are solidly Republican, even as they swung away.  Keep dreamin'.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #43 on: February 23, 2017, 12:03:52 pm »

So in the past few weeks, we've had polls from PPP showing Clinton leading Christie by 2 nationally, but also by 6 in MN and by 2 in TX.  How can all of those polls be correct?  What kind of crazy map would Christie vs. Clinton be?

     The projected GOP candidate was different, but this post was quite prescient of the incongruities between state and national polls that contributed to the fog-of-war problem we saw in this election.
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